USC v.s Stanford, Oct 10 @8pm - Write-Up

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  • Consistency
    SBR Hustler
    • 10-01-10
    • 73

    #1
    USC v.s Stanford, Oct 10 @8pm - Write-Up
    Hey Everyone-

    I've been doing a lot of thinking about this USC/Stanford game coming up, so I figured I would contribute what I've got so far..

    Trends:
    Stanford is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games.
    Stanford is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss.
    USC is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road dog (of 3.5-10 points).

    What USC Must Do to Win:
    Run the Rock, Control the Clock- Standford's D is 84th in Rushing D (over 169 yards per game).

    What Stanford Must Do to Win:
    Air it Out- USC is a porous 116th in pass D, allowing over 288 ypg passing (not to mention 99th in total D, just shy of 420 ypg).

    Conclusion

    Both of these teams are coming off of tough losses. USC is a solid team, and Allen Bradford (RB) had a bit of a coming out party last week...but at the end of the day Stanford has all of the weapons needed to win this game. Luck will look to pick apart the Trojan secondary. Once Stanford gets up (and they almost certainly will), USC will have to stop doing what it's been doing best lately (running) and rely on the arm of Matt Barkley. This is not to say that Barkley isn't having a terrific campaign in '10. He has 12 TD's to only 4 interceptions. However, 8 of those 12 TD's have come against Hawaii and Wash St who are not exactly defensive power houses.

    Prediction

    Stanford 37 - 24 USC

    BOL everyone.
  • RibbedTrojan
    SBR MVP
    • 12-12-09
    • 1487

    #2
    Couldn't agree more. Good luck
    Comment
    • TrapperDapper
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 08-20-10
      • 502

      #3
      USC is slowly making strides. This is a big game for them if they wanna keep some respect during this ban.
      Comment
      • Chimneyfish
        SBR MVP
        • 09-30-10
        • 1217

        #4
        Stanford by ten
        Comment
        • TylerDurden
          SBR MVP
          • 05-06-10
          • 1427

          #5
          Originally posted by Consistency
          Hey Everyone-

          I've been doing a lot of thinking about this USC/Stanford game coming up, so I figured I would contribute what I've got so far..

          Trends:
          Stanford is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games.
          Stanford is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss.
          USC is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road dog (of 3.5-10 points).

          What USC Must Do to Win:
          Run the Rock, Control the Clock- Standford's D is 84th in Rushing D (over 169 yards per game).

          What Stanford Must Do to Win:
          Air it Out- USC is a porous 116th in pass D, allowing over 288 ypg passing (not to mention 99th in total D, just shy of 420 ypg).

          Conclusion

          Both of these teams are coming off of tough losses. USC is a solid team, and Allen Bradford (RB) had a bit of a coming out party last week...but at the end of the day Stanford has all of the weapons needed to win this game. Luck will look to pick apart the Trojan secondary. Once Stanford gets up (and they almost certainly will), USC will have to stop doing what it's been doing best lately (running) and rely on the arm of Matt Barkley. This is not to say that Barkley isn't having a terrific campaign in '10. He has 12 TD's to only 4 interceptions. However, 8 of those 12 TD's have come against Hawaii and Wash St who are not exactly defensive power houses.

          Prediction

          Stanford 37 - 24 USC

          BOL everyone.
          Solid write up...A couple things I noticed in you're analysis.

          1.) That 84th in rushing is a bit misleading as they just played Oregon who has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation and dropped over 300+ yds last week as they exploited their speed adv. So just keep in mind that this number is inflated as Stanford will not play a better running team in the next 75 years (lol).

          2.) While I agree SC's passing defense is skeptical I don't think this is the way Stanford wins the game. I think they way the beat SC is to ground and pound like Harby loves to do. SC is already lacking motivation and a team like stanford that grinds out long methodical drives sucks the life out of you. SC will fold after about 3 drives like this and completely lose interest. Furthermore, while luck is good, he tends to leave alot of air under his passes and try and make big plays that aren't always there. I think with the methodical balanced rungame he plays much better with intermediate and the set up deep balls.

          3.) I think you're also leaving out the fact that Harby hates hates hates USC...remember last year when he ran the score up and went for two up like 40-12, and then responding to the media, "we went for 2 because I thought we could get it" ? He will have this team ready and I think he gets back to his style of football unlike we saw last week.

          Take Stanford -the points as they'll win this by a good 17+, good write up though.
          Comment
          • jackpot269
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 09-24-07
            • 12842

            #6
            Too good write ups thanks guys !!!!!!!!1
            Comment
            • Consistency
              SBR Hustler
              • 10-01-10
              • 73

              #7
              Originally posted by TylerDurden

              Solid write up...A couple things I noticed in you're analysis.

              1.) That 84th in rushing is a bit misleading as they just played Oregon who has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation and dropped over 300+ yds last week as they exploited their speed adv. So just keep in mind that this number is inflated as Stanford will not play a better running team in the next 75 years (lol).

              2.) While I agree SC's passing defense is skeptical I don't think this is the way Stanford wins the game. I think they way the beat SC is to ground and pound like Harby loves to do. SC is already lacking motivation and a team like stanford that grinds out long methodical drives sucks the life out of you. SC will fold after about 3 drives like this and completely lose interest. Furthermore, while luck is good, he tends to leave alot of air under his passes and try and make big plays that aren't always there. I think with the methodical balanced rungame he plays much better with intermediate and the set up deep balls.

              3.) I think you're also leaving out the fact that Harby hates hates hates USC...remember last year when he ran the score up and went for two up like 40-12, and then responding to the media, "we went for 2 because I thought we could get it" ? He will have this team ready and I think he gets back to his style of football unlike we saw last week.

              Take Stanford -the points as they'll win this by a good 17+, good write up though.
              Hey Ty-

              Thanks for the analysis, I appreciate it. There is nothing like exchanging information and analysis back and forth to come to a more informed conclusion.

              1.) Good point. It would be unfair for me to point out that Barkley's passing stats have been inflated by having played against Hawaii and Wash State and not mention that Stanford's run D was the victim of Oregon's terrific rushing attack. The good thing for Stanford backers (like you presumably, and myself) is that even if it WERE true that Stanford's run D was below average...given the probably deficit USC is going to be facing they won't be running the rock much in the second half in any event.

              2.) I've noticed that about Luck. His release point seems high when he gets excited (if you had field vision like this kid and EVERYONE seemed open on nearly every play you'd be excited too) and the ball does tend to float a little. I agree that USC will have to contend with a steady dose of Taylor (and Luck for that matter) on the ground. Playing with a lead will be conducive to that as well.

              3.) You know, that is an interesting point about Harby's infamous 2 point conversion last year. I would normally say that it would actually benefit USC this year... additional motivation, billboard material. But the reality is Pete Carrol is gone, and I think a lot of animosity and team identity left with him. Even if USC did want to pay Stanford back for it, I don't know that they even have the means too.

              I am confident that Stanford wins, feel pretty strongly about covering as well. And to be quite honest I don't think the 17+ margin of victory for Stanford is not all that unrealistic. I may do a 10 point tease on the game, OVER and Stan pk or whatever it ends up being.
              Comment
              • kalamity85
                SBR High Roller
                • 10-28-09
                • 233

                #8
                you guys bring up stanford going against oregon's run D and that's why the rush D for stanford is a little inflated. however i'd like to point out USC went up to Hawaii the first game of the season. Hawaii was ranked #1 in passing offense a year ago. so USC's pass D could be a little inflated too. my point is ONE game this far into the season doesn't really "inflate" the numbers that much. USC still has problems on pass D and stanford still has problems on rush D.

                i also don't think USC will stop stanford on the ground either. i just don't think USC will stop stanford period. i doubt the whole thing about extra motivation because of last year's game will play much of a factor once the game starts. it won't make up for bad defense on USC's part.

                i too am confident stanford will win convincingly. however, it seems just too easy of a line at this point. the whole mystique about USC has to be gone by this point. everyone KNOWS USC isn't the power that they used to be and they are really struggling on defense right now. also, everyone knows stanford is a much better team than years past and they have a growing reputation as being one of the most physical teams in college football today. how is the line only -10? this reminds me of USC vs. ohio st. last year when everyone KNEW USC was going to kill them. the line was only -7 (presumably because it was at ohio st.). yet USC needed a last minute drive to win the game.
                Comment
                • Consistency
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 10-01-10
                  • 73

                  #9
                  Good points kalamity. I think the consensus is Stanford.
                  Comment
                  • me-first
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-01-10
                    • 1054

                    #10
                    good luck tomorrow..I'm on the other side small..
                    Comment
                    • ji03
                      SBR MVP
                      • 06-27-09
                      • 1144

                      #11
                      I like Stanford, but I'm worried about laying 9.5 because I think USC will come out strong after losing last week.
                      Comment
                      • Consistency
                        SBR Hustler
                        • 10-01-10
                        • 73

                        #12
                        Originally posted by ji03
                        I like Stanford, but I'm worried about laying 9.5 because I think USC will come out strong after losing last week.
                        A valid concern that I had mentioned in my write-up. Stanford lost too remember. I think the additional motivation factor coming off a loss is about the same for both teams. If anything, Stanford may be that much more fired up. They had the number 4 team in the nation up 21-3 and let it slip. They have a lot more to prove.
                        Comment
                        • sweethook
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-21-07
                          • 12667

                          #13
                          so fade both the usc's
                          Comment
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