NCAAF Odds: Cornhuskers at Kansas State
Thursday night's Big 12 North showdown in Manhattan appears to be a case of Nebraska receiving too much respect from the college football oddsmakers. The Cornhuskers have earned their top-10 ranking, but that ranking means Nebraska is overvalued on the road as 12-point chalk at some shops. With the running game and running defense featured for both squads, don't look for a lot of points Thursday night.
In case you needed a reminder, there’s no such thing as a deadbolt lock in sports betting. Anything can happen and usually does. But it’s hard not to be enthusiastic about the Kansas State Wildcats this Thursday when they host the Nebraska Cornhuskers (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). The Wildcats are getting either 11½ or 12 points as we go to press, depending on where you shop for your betting odds. That’s a lot of points for a pretty good team.
Don’t get me wrong, there’s so much to love about the Cornhuskers as a football fan. I was among the bandwagon-jumpers who got in relatively early on last year’s 11-3 run by the 'under', courtesy of coach Bo Pelini and a defense anchored by tackle Ndamukong Suh. Nebraska rode this defense to ten wins last year (9-5 ATS), capped off by a 33-0 whitewash of the Arizona Wildcats (+2) at the Holiday Bowl. What’s not to love?
Far too much, if you’re a handicapper. The Cornhuskers had betting value last year because they were a team on the rise. There isn’t much farther they can go at this point, having reached No. 7 in the AP rankings and No. 6 on the coaches’ poll. With great expectations comes big chalk, and Nebraska started this year at 1-2-1 ATS, failing to cover non-conference victories over Western Kentucky (+39), Idaho (+27½) and South Dakota State (+41½).
Although we like to think that college football programs remain fairly stable from year to year under the same coach, that’s only in comparison to the NFL. Exhibit A: The 2010 Cornhuskers are rolling the dice somewhat on freshman quarterback Taylor Martinez. This is a tremendous athlete and a great prospect who can both run and pass, but Martinez will have his growing pains, like the three turnovers he committed against South Dakota State in an ugly 17-3 win.
Martinez should improve as the season wears on; however, the ‘Huskers defense can’t be expected to match last year’s level now that Suh is a member of the Detroit Lions. Nebraska ranks No. 1 in the FBS in pass defense, according to the S&P ratings at Football Outsiders, but only No. 68 against the run. The 'over' is 3-1 for Nebraska this year as a result.
It just so happens that the Wildcats (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) have one of the best tailbacks anywhere in Daniel Thomas, who scored two touchdowns in each of the first three games before getting bottled up (22 carries for 76 yards) in last week’s 17-13 win over the UCF Knights. Kansas State was a 6½-point home chalk in that matchup, so it’s easy to connect the dots and see that Nebraska has to stop Thomas on Thursday night.
The Wildcats aren’t so bad at defense themselves. They rank No. 28 overall in defensive efficiency – including No. 19 against the run, which is Nebraska’s specialty. Having said that, these rankings are based on a fairly small sample size, and Kansas State did allow 252 yards rushing to UCF last week (4.9 yards per carry). The Cornhuskers offensive line should be able to open up some lanes for Martinez and his busy tailbacks, Roy Helu Jr. and Rex Burkhead.
All this defense and running around by both teams doesn’t leave a lot of opportunity for Nebraska to clear that 12-point spread. And when it comes to betting value, the Wildcats are the hotter commodity in the second year of coach Bill Snyder’s second tenure. How important is Snyder? Kansas State named its stadium after him after he retired in 2005, then Snyder came to the rescue after the program faltered under Ron Prince.
So far, so good. Snyder’s recruiting efforts have replenished the roster with local talent and JUCO transfers, and the passing game has improved under senior Carson Coffman (five TDs, two INTs) in his first year as the Wildcats starter. This is an upwardly mobile team sitting just barely outside the national rankings; even a money line bet on Kansas State at +330 wouldn’t be beyond reason here. Enjoy the game.
Thursday night's Big 12 North showdown in Manhattan appears to be a case of Nebraska receiving too much respect from the college football oddsmakers. The Cornhuskers have earned their top-10 ranking, but that ranking means Nebraska is overvalued on the road as 12-point chalk at some shops. With the running game and running defense featured for both squads, don't look for a lot of points Thursday night.
In case you needed a reminder, there’s no such thing as a deadbolt lock in sports betting. Anything can happen and usually does. But it’s hard not to be enthusiastic about the Kansas State Wildcats this Thursday when they host the Nebraska Cornhuskers (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). The Wildcats are getting either 11½ or 12 points as we go to press, depending on where you shop for your betting odds. That’s a lot of points for a pretty good team.
Don’t get me wrong, there’s so much to love about the Cornhuskers as a football fan. I was among the bandwagon-jumpers who got in relatively early on last year’s 11-3 run by the 'under', courtesy of coach Bo Pelini and a defense anchored by tackle Ndamukong Suh. Nebraska rode this defense to ten wins last year (9-5 ATS), capped off by a 33-0 whitewash of the Arizona Wildcats (+2) at the Holiday Bowl. What’s not to love?
Far too much, if you’re a handicapper. The Cornhuskers had betting value last year because they were a team on the rise. There isn’t much farther they can go at this point, having reached No. 7 in the AP rankings and No. 6 on the coaches’ poll. With great expectations comes big chalk, and Nebraska started this year at 1-2-1 ATS, failing to cover non-conference victories over Western Kentucky (+39), Idaho (+27½) and South Dakota State (+41½).
Although we like to think that college football programs remain fairly stable from year to year under the same coach, that’s only in comparison to the NFL. Exhibit A: The 2010 Cornhuskers are rolling the dice somewhat on freshman quarterback Taylor Martinez. This is a tremendous athlete and a great prospect who can both run and pass, but Martinez will have his growing pains, like the three turnovers he committed against South Dakota State in an ugly 17-3 win.
Martinez should improve as the season wears on; however, the ‘Huskers defense can’t be expected to match last year’s level now that Suh is a member of the Detroit Lions. Nebraska ranks No. 1 in the FBS in pass defense, according to the S&P ratings at Football Outsiders, but only No. 68 against the run. The 'over' is 3-1 for Nebraska this year as a result.
It just so happens that the Wildcats (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) have one of the best tailbacks anywhere in Daniel Thomas, who scored two touchdowns in each of the first three games before getting bottled up (22 carries for 76 yards) in last week’s 17-13 win over the UCF Knights. Kansas State was a 6½-point home chalk in that matchup, so it’s easy to connect the dots and see that Nebraska has to stop Thomas on Thursday night.
The Wildcats aren’t so bad at defense themselves. They rank No. 28 overall in defensive efficiency – including No. 19 against the run, which is Nebraska’s specialty. Having said that, these rankings are based on a fairly small sample size, and Kansas State did allow 252 yards rushing to UCF last week (4.9 yards per carry). The Cornhuskers offensive line should be able to open up some lanes for Martinez and his busy tailbacks, Roy Helu Jr. and Rex Burkhead.
All this defense and running around by both teams doesn’t leave a lot of opportunity for Nebraska to clear that 12-point spread. And when it comes to betting value, the Wildcats are the hotter commodity in the second year of coach Bill Snyder’s second tenure. How important is Snyder? Kansas State named its stadium after him after he retired in 2005, then Snyder came to the rescue after the program faltered under Ron Prince.
So far, so good. Snyder’s recruiting efforts have replenished the roster with local talent and JUCO transfers, and the passing game has improved under senior Carson Coffman (five TDs, two INTs) in his first year as the Wildcats starter. This is an upwardly mobile team sitting just barely outside the national rankings; even a money line bet on Kansas State at +330 wouldn’t be beyond reason here. Enjoy the game.
