Troy @ Middle Tennessee St.(-3)
Two bottom-feeders hook up for a rare Tuesday night affair.
I notice much heralded MTS QB Dasher is back and will undoubtedly throw it around…… but his tendency to throw to players wearing the opposite color jersey makes me a little uncomfortable (6 picks)….even laying a smallish number. If he shakes off the rust, he should feast on Troy’s 117th ranked Pass Defense which allows 7.7 Yd’s PPA. MTS has a serviceable running game with 5.7 Yd’s per attempt, but keep in mind that’s against the second easiest schedule in Div 1A. My model shows MTS will get around 72 plays at around 6.2 yd’s per play. That will be enough offense to score in the low 30’s. The big question mark for MTS is the -7 turnover ratio they’ve accumulated to date.
My stats show Troy with a suitable running game to complement their better-than-average passing attack. Troy’s biggest problem is they tend to stall in the RED ZONE, scoring only 8 TD’s in 21 trips. They should be able to get around 70 plays on offense, …..and although their kicker is leading the nation in FG’s, that only demonstrates Troy’s Red Zone weakness. My model has Troy with only 4.5 Yd’s per play against MTS’s defense that has given up only 9 TD’s in 17 of opponents Red Zone ventures……and should only yield a score in the middle 20’s.
A small hometown lean to Mid. Tenn. St. (-3).
Middle Tennessee State 32
Troy State 24
Two bottom-feeders hook up for a rare Tuesday night affair.
I notice much heralded MTS QB Dasher is back and will undoubtedly throw it around…… but his tendency to throw to players wearing the opposite color jersey makes me a little uncomfortable (6 picks)….even laying a smallish number. If he shakes off the rust, he should feast on Troy’s 117th ranked Pass Defense which allows 7.7 Yd’s PPA. MTS has a serviceable running game with 5.7 Yd’s per attempt, but keep in mind that’s against the second easiest schedule in Div 1A. My model shows MTS will get around 72 plays at around 6.2 yd’s per play. That will be enough offense to score in the low 30’s. The big question mark for MTS is the -7 turnover ratio they’ve accumulated to date.
My stats show Troy with a suitable running game to complement their better-than-average passing attack. Troy’s biggest problem is they tend to stall in the RED ZONE, scoring only 8 TD’s in 21 trips. They should be able to get around 70 plays on offense, …..and although their kicker is leading the nation in FG’s, that only demonstrates Troy’s Red Zone weakness. My model has Troy with only 4.5 Yd’s per play against MTS’s defense that has given up only 9 TD’s in 17 of opponents Red Zone ventures……and should only yield a score in the middle 20’s.
A small hometown lean to Mid. Tenn. St. (-3).
Middle Tennessee State 32
Troy State 24
