This "angle" isn't ironclad, but so far it's 2-0 considering the margin of qualification that has to be met.
Now, when there is a fairly large discrenpancy between the opening line (-3.5 to -2.5, now) and the Sagarin ratings (OSU = 81.86 + 3 [home-field] = 84.86 / A&M = 75.55]) that is not compensated for in the expected direction, coupled with reverse line movement, it has "largely" resulted in a cover for the lower ranked team.
For example, last week, based on certain lines falling on the dot of the Sagarin ratings, Fresno State probably should have been 6/7-point favorites. Now, for the sake of even action and just through the basic concepts of the "SEC vs. the WAC" and the travel involved, I don't think the books could have rightly had Fresno open as favorites on the road. Anyway, after seeing this 9-point discrepancy with Ole Miss sitting at (-3), I knew that the books were expecting the Rebels to right the ship. It must've not beeb such a leap of imagination to have come up with that though.
To have A&M essentially as a pick-'em in this spot has it falling into this criterium of betting, so I'm going to ride with it for a smallish wager.
Good luck, and let's see how it works out for the rest of the season.
Now, when there is a fairly large discrenpancy between the opening line (-3.5 to -2.5, now) and the Sagarin ratings (OSU = 81.86 + 3 [home-field] = 84.86 / A&M = 75.55]) that is not compensated for in the expected direction, coupled with reverse line movement, it has "largely" resulted in a cover for the lower ranked team.
For example, last week, based on certain lines falling on the dot of the Sagarin ratings, Fresno State probably should have been 6/7-point favorites. Now, for the sake of even action and just through the basic concepts of the "SEC vs. the WAC" and the travel involved, I don't think the books could have rightly had Fresno open as favorites on the road. Anyway, after seeing this 9-point discrepancy with Ole Miss sitting at (-3), I knew that the books were expecting the Rebels to right the ship. It must've not beeb such a leap of imagination to have come up with that though.
To have A&M essentially as a pick-'em in this spot has it falling into this criterium of betting, so I'm going to ride with it for a smallish wager.
Good luck, and let's see how it works out for the rest of the season.