A&M/OSU: Power rating angle

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  • Joe_Shabadoo
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 09-17-09
    • 607

    #1
    A&M/OSU: Power rating angle
    This "angle" isn't ironclad, but so far it's 2-0 considering the margin of qualification that has to be met.

    Now, when there is a fairly large discrenpancy between the opening line (-3.5 to -2.5, now) and the Sagarin ratings (OSU = 81.86 + 3 [home-field] = 84.86 / A&M = 75.55]) that is not compensated for in the expected direction, coupled with reverse line movement, it has "largely" resulted in a cover for the lower ranked team.

    For example, last week, based on certain lines falling on the dot of the Sagarin ratings, Fresno State probably should have been 6/7-point favorites. Now, for the sake of even action and just through the basic concepts of the "SEC vs. the WAC" and the travel involved, I don't think the books could have rightly had Fresno open as favorites on the road. Anyway, after seeing this 9-point discrepancy with Ole Miss sitting at (-3), I knew that the books were expecting the Rebels to right the ship. It must've not beeb such a leap of imagination to have come up with that though.

    To have A&M essentially as a pick-'em in this spot has it falling into this criterium of betting, so I'm going to ride with it for a smallish wager.

    Good luck, and let's see how it works out for the rest of the season.
  • mv09
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 09-20-07
    • 800

    #2
    Sagarin/Pomeroy ratings are a poor indicator for future results at the beginning of the season as the margin of error is large.
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    • Joe_Shabadoo
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 09-17-09
      • 607

      #3
      Originally posted by mv09
      Sagarin/Pomeroy ratings are a poor indicator for future results at the beginning of the season as the margin of error is large.
      I'm well aware of this.

      I'm just seeing how this plays out for games that I have not done a lot of research for, or that I'm just not that interested in.

      Significant data is lacking, but they have some merit. This is just for the sake of monitoring lines that are largely based on the ratings.
      Comment
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