Favorite angle of mine: fading public dogs

**ACCBlitz** · 09-30-10, 12:49 AM

Good stuff NC

**BrigadierPudding** · 09-30-10, 12:59 AM

This is generally a good rule in all sports. Miami-OH, South Carolina and Georgia were all dogs that got the vast majority of public bets last week. None of them covered.

**BrigadierPudding** · 09-30-10, 01:01 AM

The only thing worse than a dog getting a lot of public action is a dog in a high profile game - this week I'd think twice before backing Florida, NC State and Stanford.

**No coincidences** · 09-30-10, 01:04 AM

Originally posted by BrigadierPudding

The only thing worse than a dog getting a lot of public action is a dog in a high profile game - this week I'd think twice before backing Florida, NC State and Stanford.

Well said. It's hard to get a read on some of these because of relatively low sample size. The games you mentioned, though, are heavy in volume, which means the books aren't making a "mistake" by putting out these lines. They're there for a reason, and more often than not, it's to sucker you in -- not get you to cash.

**Saluki09** · 09-30-10, 03:06 AM

I like Stanford to beat Oregon straight up.

**spongerat** · 09-30-10, 03:32 AM

the public can be right sometimes, last week the books got killed apparently

**ger25pic25** · 09-30-10, 03:44 AM

i like NC State and Stanford! BOL with your plays!

**GiveMeaBJ** · 09-30-10, 03:45 AM

Public dogs seem to never win which is why the favorite is always the one they love! Good shit.

**GiveMeaBJ** · 09-30-10, 03:46 AM

I think if you fade them all your looking at 6-3.

**TylerDurden** · 09-30-10, 04:23 AM

Originally posted by Saluki09

I like Stanford to beat Oregon straight up.

why? Luck has never played in an environment like Autzen and has yet to face anything resembling a defense, much less Oregon's speedy secondary which has 9 int's in 4 games. Oregon is gonna drop 35+ vs Stanfords moderate defense (and prob 7+ defensive points)...is Stanford going to do the same? If your really think so...just load up on the over, and enjoy the game....and thank me later of course

**cowboyfan08** · 09-30-10, 04:50 AM

nc state and tenn, bol

**HoulihansTX** · 09-30-10, 04:51 AM

Its not that easy No Coin.

**kurt_06518** · 09-30-10, 07:52 AM

agreed that public dogs are a huge red flag but i also believe that if a dog has the overwhelming majority, those games usually hit, in this case it is nc state

**old school** · 09-30-10, 08:19 AM

The square public doesn't bet until gametime. These early moves are all "sharp". The public will be on away favorites (low spread, better team, often an outstanding offensive team).

**ExposingLines247** · 09-30-10, 08:38 AM

Originally posted by kurt_06518

agreed that public dogs are a huge red flag but i also believe that if a dog has the overwhelming majority, those games usually hit, in this case it is nc state

so when the public is really hittin a road dog hard they usually hit???

**kurt_06518** · 09-30-10, 08:54 AM

from my experience, yes, 60% public is not hard, 80% is

**kurt_06518** · 09-30-10, 08:55 AM

if the public like the dog anywhere from 45-65%, those r red flags and i usually stay away

**dume walker** · 09-30-10, 10:15 AM

The site I like to use to check out what sides are getting the most action is wagerline.com. Once you get there, go to "consensus". Then drop down to "consensus picks". And on that slide over to "NCAAF". When you get there you then need to pick the month and day for the games (Oct. 2). Sample size is about 1,400 picks. These may be more sophisticated bettors that the Sportsbook players. But on that site only 60% are going for NC State; 54% going for Stanford and 51% going for Navy.

Last weekend the top three home team picks -- Tenn 79%; Kansas State 76%; UTEP 73% -- and the top four away team picks -- Oregon 78%; Air Force 74%; Oklahoma 72%; Southern Miss 71% -- all failed to cover.

**kurt_06518** · 09-30-10, 10:17 AM

yes when you pick a dog, the dogs that cover r the ones that have 20-25% majority, when you see a heavier majority on a dog, thats why you get nervous and thats what this post speaks to

**agharah1** · 09-30-10, 10:39 AM

Generally, I think fading the public doesn't quite work as well in College Football because the talent disparity is so much larger that it makes upsets less likely (although no talent disparity is as big as College Basketball). That being said I'd take LSU and Air Force to cover. FIU will cover @ Pitt though because Pitts' offense is just that bad. Its only got 50% though so it might not be a bad pick.

**No coincidences** · 09-30-10, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Its not that easy No Coin.

Never said it was Houli, but every week, there seems to be about 5 really popular dogs and subsequent threads afterward complaining about why they didn't cash (i.e., ECU vs. Virginia Tech and Tennessee vs. Oregon off the top of my head).

I know you love NC State this week. I like it too. But I don't like the fact that Joe Square is on our side big -- especially with the line moving in our favor. Recipe for disaster.

**No coincidences** · 09-30-10, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by agharah1

FIU will cover @ Pitt though because Pitts' offense is just that bad. Its only got 50% though so it might not be a bad pick.

At first glance, there's no reason whatsoever for Pitt to be a 19-point fave in this spot against a team that nearly won at TAMU. That's what makes me leery. FIU didn't cover against Maryland last week, and I'm starting to wonder if they fail to cover this one as well.

**dimetimekid** · 09-30-10, 12:39 PM

i know teasers arent the favorite of most gamblers, but i think all those games if teased 7 points it will hit. the two games i would question are akron because they are terrible and i dont think they covered any games ats this year even if they had another 7 points and the oregon game. I honestly feel like stanford could win, but at the same time, in Oregon with that offense...stanford could get run out of the building. Not going to play that game...just my two cents.

**homerbush** · 09-30-10, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by dimetimekid

i know teasers arent the favorite of most gamblers, but i think all those games if teased 7 points it will hit. the two games i would question are akron because they are terrible and i dont think they covered any games ats this year even if they had another 7 points and the oregon game. I honestly feel like stanford could win, but at the same time, in Oregon with that offense...stanford could get run out of the building. Not going to play that game...just my two cents.

Akron covered last week

**Uncle Harv** · 09-30-10, 01:39 PM

interesting post.

**No coincidences** · 10-03-10, 02:11 AM

By my count, the public went 2-7 with these, correct?

**GiveMeaBJ** · 10-03-10, 07:07 AM

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

I think if you fade them all your looking at 6-3.

Close enough. Fading public dogs is never a bad idea.

**MadTiger** · 10-03-10, 07:11 AM

Originally posted by agharah1

Generally, I think fading the public doesn't quite work as well in College Football because the talent disparity is so much larger that it makes upsets less likely

I definitely agree with this statement.

**khaden** · 10-03-10, 08:57 AM

Nice work

**BrigadierPudding** · 10-03-10, 11:45 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

By my count, the public went 2-7 with these, correct?

The high profile ones I mentioned - NC State, Florida and Stanford - went 0-3.