Jeff Sagarin/Mr Handicapable Saturday DoublePlay

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  • Mr Handicapable
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-23-07
    • 6067

    #1
    Jeff Sagarin/Mr Handicapable Saturday DoublePlay
    One of the factors I look at when handicapping CFB is the Sagarin ratings. They take strength of schedule a little too seriously imo but its helpful! I always look for value comparing the ratings and giving the home team 3 pts as recommended!

    Toledo 68.07
    Wyoming 62.62
    = Toledo (-5.5) + 3 homefield = -8.5 line is (-3.5)

    NC State 81.57
    Va Tech 83.71
    = Va Tech (-2) - 3 as NC State is at home = NCSt -1 line is VaT (-4)

    Both Toledo and NC State are getting superior play at QB as well! Russell Wilson might be too short to be in the NFL but he's as good a college QB as there is this year w/11 TDs/1 pick! Toledo has Austin Dantin who just ran/passed for 2 TDs each vs Purdue! Having the best player on the field never hurts! Va. Tech scares me a little more being familiar w/NC State and big games....I like the Toledo pick better as Ohio is a long way from home for the Cowboys!

    3 star on Toledo -3.5.....may buy it down if possible?
    2 star on NC State +4
    .5 star on NC State ML

    Good Luck!!
  • 70kgman
    SBR MVP
    • 01-31-10
    • 4354

    #2
    Originally posted by Mr Handicapable
    They take strength of schedule a little too seriously imo
    What do you mean by take it too seriously?
    Comment
    • THE PROFIT
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-27-09
      • 17701

      #3
      The UTEP/New Mexico is the biggest difference in Sagarin ratings this week! But who the fuk can back New Mexico???
      Comment
      • spongerat
        SBR MVP
        • 10-01-08
        • 2023

        #4
        i think NM will put in some effort because this is the first game where they actually have a shot at winning and they are at home.
        Comment
        • Seven4os
          Restricted User
          • 09-10-10
          • 61

          #5
          Interesting angle. Thanks.
          Comment
          • THE PROFIT
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 11-27-09
            • 17701

            #6
            Originally posted by spongerat
            i think NM will put in some effort because this is the first game where they actually have a shot at winning and they are at home.
            exactly what I was just telling my buddy. Its also their homecoming & theyve played the 5th toughest schedule so far, where UTEP has played the 182nd!!! Sagarins ratings say UTEP should be around -2. UTEP is 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS in last 9 as a road fav.

            Just as hard as it is for a team to go undefeated, its hard for a team to not win a fukin game too. That HC is 1-15 SU since taking over. Its homecoming & they finally have an opponent that sucks almost as bad as them. I say they give it all they got, play over their heads, & cover if not win this fukin game.
            Comment
            • Mr Handicapable
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 09-23-07
              • 6067

              #7
              I guess what I'm trying to say is that strength of schedule doesn't mean much to me after 3 games! Indiana is 3-0 vs cupcakes but they can't handle Villanova because they've played a tougher schedule? I wasn't aware Nova even played college football?
              Comment
              • ManBearPig
                SBR MVP
                • 12-04-08
                • 2473

                #8
                Originally posted by Mr Handicapable
                I guess what I'm trying to say is that strength of schedule doesn't mean much to me after 3 games! Indiana is 3-0 vs cupcakes but they can't handle Villanova because they've played a tougher schedule? I wasn't aware Nova even played college football?

                Not only does Nova have a football team they also could be in the Big East if they accept the invite.
                Comment
                • Go State
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 11-01-09
                  • 137

                  #9
                  So am I looking at this right? Kentucky on the rankings is 77.7 and Ole Miss is 69.66 if you add 3 for Ole Miss being at home the difference would be 77.7-72.66=5.04. So this would mean Kentucky should be favored by 5? If so isn't there value here since Kentucky is +3? This is my first time trying to look at this so let me know if I am doing something wrong. Thanks
                  Comment
                  • THE PROFIT
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 11-27-09
                    • 17701

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Mr Handicapable
                    I guess what I'm trying to say is that strength of schedule doesn't mean much to me after 3 games! Indiana is 3-0 vs cupcakes but they can't handle Villanova because they've played a tougher schedule? I wasn't aware Nova even played college football?
                    Aren't they the FCS (Div II) National Champions???
                    Comment
                    • THE PROFIT
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-27-09
                      • 17701

                      #11
                      I mean Im not trying to be a smartass, but I just find it odd that anyone who follows college football doesnt know that the National Champions even have a football team!

                      Maybe its just because we take our football a little more serious here in the south than most people. I live in the land of the Appalachian State Mountaineers
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                      Comment
                      • THE PROFIT
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 11-27-09
                        • 17701

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Go State
                        So am I looking at this right? Kentucky on the rankings is 77.7 and Ole Miss is 69.66 if you add 3 for Ole Miss being at home the difference would be 77.7-72.66=5.04. So this would mean Kentucky should be favored by 5? If so isn't there value here since Kentucky is +3? This is my first time trying to look at this so let me know if I am doing something wrong. Thanks
                        yes theres value there, but theres other things you have to take into acct. A great example is this same ole miss team last week. According to Sagarin ratings, Fresno should have been a 10pt favorite over miss
                        Comment
                        • grzftbl
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 01-17-10
                          • 285

                          #13
                          Originally posted by THE PROFIT

                          Maybe its just because we take our football a little more serious here in the south than most people. I live in the land of the Appalachian State Mountaineers
                          I was at the App St/Montana game last December. Born/raised in Montana and I can honestly say I have never been more cold than I was at that game. Was a GREAT game.
                          Comment
                          • THE PROFIT
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 11-27-09
                            • 17701

                            #14
                            Boone can be terribly cold between December thru February. Its just so highly elevated
                            Comment
                            • the shadow
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 07-02-09
                              • 120

                              #15
                              You can't use Sagarin until week 7 or so. Vegas lines are much sharper than Sagarin at this time of the season.
                              Comment
                              • THE PROFIT
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-27-09
                                • 17701

                                #16
                                Ive found sagarin to be around 70% so far on 10 pt differences.
                                Comment
                                • homerbush
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 11-17-08
                                  • 2317

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Mr Handicapable
                                  I guess what I'm trying to say is that strength of schedule doesn't mean much to me after 3 games! Indiana is 3-0 vs cupcakes but they can't handle Villanova because they've played a tougher schedule? I wasn't aware Nova even played college football?
                                  I hope you are not serious as nova has been a fcs powerhouse lately and has given fits in their FBS match ups
                                  Comment
                                  • 70kgman
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-31-10
                                    • 4354

                                    #18
                                    I did the saragin ratings thing to find plays years ago. It really wasn't that great long term. Home teams that were 7 points off or more I found to be the most profitable in both college football and basketball. But the sample size was small, they don't pop up too often.
                                    Comment
                                    • alukk
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-29-09
                                      • 1544

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by THE PROFIT
                                      Ive found sagarin to be around 70% so far on 10 pt differences.
                                      where did u find that?
                                      Comment
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