Now, this is one of those games that I feel the oddsmakers are perhaps being too matter-of-fact with power rankings involed having Navy as 10-pt. dogs going into Colorado Springs.
Accordingly, I'll probably be kicking myself on Saturday when Air Force wins by 2-tds. +.
I'm going to bite anyway.
Fisher Deberry/Troy Calhoun have always been in it really close with Paul Johnson/Ken Nuimatalolo, but just have been unable to close the deal. Well, at least for the past 7 seasons. But all of those games were within one score I believe.
There's going to be variance, of course, but when teams like Army (now with Rich Ellerson), Air Force, Navy & even Georgia Southern play each other, one can almost set aside the spread and go for the value by taking the underdog for a bit more on the moneyline than what would normally be wagered.
The preparation against each other's offensive gameplan results in close, close games relying even more so on the turnover margin.
The oddsmakers know this, but a spread like this with even 2009's version of Army would be a bit hard to swallow.
Purely by pragmatism, one would have to side with Navy keeping it within a score. Navy has perhaps their most experienced O-line ever, and Ricky Dobbs is coming back into form.
That being said, one of the caveats that I wanted to sort out if I was to bet on Navy was the 5-player turnover in Navy's LB-corps. As expected, in '09, they weren't great athletes, but that contingent improved since their dreadful 2007 showing and were all just so well prepared and intelligent. They were outsized, and outmatched on paper, but usually came out on top with a some huge game-changing plays last season.
I'd be surprised if this line doesn't end up at 8-even, but, regardless, anything at 6.5 or over would be a prudent play in my opinion.
Accordingly, I'll probably be kicking myself on Saturday when Air Force wins by 2-tds. +.
I'm going to bite anyway.
Fisher Deberry/Troy Calhoun have always been in it really close with Paul Johnson/Ken Nuimatalolo, but just have been unable to close the deal. Well, at least for the past 7 seasons. But all of those games were within one score I believe.
There's going to be variance, of course, but when teams like Army (now with Rich Ellerson), Air Force, Navy & even Georgia Southern play each other, one can almost set aside the spread and go for the value by taking the underdog for a bit more on the moneyline than what would normally be wagered.
The preparation against each other's offensive gameplan results in close, close games relying even more so on the turnover margin.
The oddsmakers know this, but a spread like this with even 2009's version of Army would be a bit hard to swallow.
Purely by pragmatism, one would have to side with Navy keeping it within a score. Navy has perhaps their most experienced O-line ever, and Ricky Dobbs is coming back into form.
That being said, one of the caveats that I wanted to sort out if I was to bet on Navy was the 5-player turnover in Navy's LB-corps. As expected, in '09, they weren't great athletes, but that contingent improved since their dreadful 2007 showing and were all just so well prepared and intelligent. They were outsized, and outmatched on paper, but usually came out on top with a some huge game-changing plays last season.
I'd be surprised if this line doesn't end up at 8-even, but, regardless, anything at 6.5 or over would be a prudent play in my opinion.
