Alabama (-7) @ Arkansas Write Up

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  • ackem19
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 10-07-09
    • 669

    #1
    Alabama (-7) @ Arkansas Write Up
    Alabama: 3-0 SU 3-0 ATS 1-0 SU On the Road 1-0 ATS on the Road
    @
    Arkansas: 3-0 SU 1-1 ATS 2-0 SU at Home 1-0 ATS at Home
    Line: Alabama -7

    Coaching Profiles
    Alabama
    HC: Nick Saban (4th Year)
    OC: Jim McElwain (3rd Year)
    DC: Kirby Smart (3rd Year)
    Offensive Style: Multiple/Pro Style
    Defensive Scheme: 3-4
    Returning Starters
    Offense: 8
    Defense: 3

    Arkansas
    HC: Bobby Petrino (3rd Year)
    OC: Garrick McGee (3rd Year)
    DC: Willy Robinson (3rd Year)
    Offensive Style: Spread
    Defensive Scheme: 4-3
    Returning Starters
    Offense: 9
    Defense: 7

    Injuries:
    Alabama: None
    Arkansas: Dennis Johnson RB OUT

    Head To Head Stats from 2008/2009 meetings (only two games involving all current coaches/coordinators
    2009: Arkansas 7 @ Alabama 35
    2008: Alabama 49 @ Arkansas 14

    Alabama Stats: 2-0 SU/ATS against Arkansas.
    AVG Rush Yards: 232 YPG
    AVG Pass Yards: 132.5 YPG
    Total Yards Averaged: 413.5 YPG
    Total Turnovers: 1

    Arkansas Stats: 0-2 SU/ATS against Alabama
    AVG Rush Yards: 77.5 YPG
    AVG Pass Yards: 204 YPG
    Total Yards Averaged: 281.5
    Total Turnovers: 5

    In 2009, Alabama controlled the ball for 33:36 leaving Arkansas with the ball for 26:24. Taking a 14 point lead in the 1st quarter meant that Arkansas had to throw the ball more when they had possession in order to come back. This prevented them from usual 30 Rushing Attempts, limiting them to only 26 rushing attempts. Meanwhile, they surpassed their average Pass Attempts of 33, to 41 pass attempts. Of which they only completed 16 leaving them with a 39% Completion PCT. Alabama QB Greg McElroy completed 17 of 24 passes and averaged 12.1 YPC on his way to 291 Yds and 3 TD's. Arkansas did a decent job against Alabama's run game only allowing 3.3 Yards per Rush and limiting Hesiman Winner Mark Ingram to 50 Yards Rushing on 17 Attempts. Arkansas only real blemish against the ground game was Trent Richardson's 52 Yards TD run in the 2nd QTR. 3rd down efficiency was also a big factor, Alabama was 6-15 on 3rd down while Arkansas was only 2-14.
    In 2008, Alabama only had the ball for 25:14 yet they managed to put up 49 points and 402 total yards. Turnovers were the key factor here, forcing 4 Int from Arkansas QB at the time, Casey Dick. The Crimson Tide also managed to rush for 9.4 YPC and only completed 6 of 15 passes and still managed to win by 5 TDs.

    Experience:
    Alabama looses 2 guys on their O-Line but maintains every other starter minues their previous TE. Defense is another story; their only 3 starters returning are their FS, SS and WLB. But with it being alabama, you don't have to question whether or not they have depth. The question is, do their newcomers have experience? Their front 7 is comprised of 4 JR's 2 SR's and only 1 SO. Their secondary is comprised of 2 JR's and 2 SO's.

    Arkansas definitely has the experience advantage with all but 2 starters returning on offesnse and only 1 not returning on the O-Line. On Defense, Arkansas returns a healthy 7 players however, they lose 2 on the D-Line, their MLB, and their Safety. All 4 of those positions are going to be crucial to stopping this Crimson Tide Offense. They will be replacing their starting D-Linemen with Sophmores, as well as their MLB but they will be brining in a Senior at Safety to replace last years starter.

    Mallet seemed to really struggle against Alabama's 3-4 defense and last season he only played against one other 3-4 defense. While he faced several multiple set defenses, he only faced two 3-4 defenses in Alabama and Texas A&M. While he struggled with Alabama (as most teams did), he had some success against the Aggies putting up 271 passing yards. He also faced a 3-4 defense (granted, in it's 1st year) last week against Georgia, a game where Mallet went 21-33 for 380 yards and 3 TD's. Arkansas seemed to struggle with 3rd down efficiency here as well going 4-12(33%) and allowing Georgia to convert on 6 of 15(40%).

    Conclusion:
    Arkansas hasn't really faced a good team this year and their first real test was Georgia, a team that they barely got by. I personally think this team is more hype than anything and I don't think they have what it takes to beat a top team. Meanwhile, Alabama took advantage of their opportunity to play a ranked team in Penn State and humiliated them 24-0. Now Penn St to me is also an overrated team but nonetheless, Bama beat them the way a No.1 team should beat them. Greg McElroy seems to be really hitting his stride and I don't see him struggling against Arkansas defense. I think the Tide roll past the razorbacks 31-14. Play: ALABAMA -7
  • daprospecta
    SBR Sharp
    • 01-15-10
    • 473

    #2
    I am a homer but everybody is riding bama. Mallet is going to tear apart that young secondary of Alabama. Why do people seem to ignore there secondary is greener than fresh made money. We have(and there is no debate) the best receiving tandem in the country. We got a lot of things going we didn't have last year: experienced defense, special teams, seasoned qb. Every is going off Alabama's first three games which haven't been tough. I don't care what anybody says, Georgia is still good. If going into Georgia and winning is not impressive then I don't know what is. Are they Alabama? No. But they are a good team. I don't see Alabama rolling this year. I see a lot of points scored and not just by Alabama.
    Comment
    • lyon804
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 11-02-09
      • 6526

      #3
      Nice post. good luck.
      Comment
      • Boscoe
        SBR MVP
        • 02-08-10
        • 2811

        #4
        Originally posted by daprospecta
        I am a homer but everybody is riding bama. Mallet is going to tear apart that young secondary of Alabama. Why do people seem to ignore there secondary is greener than fresh made money. We have(and there is no debate) the best receiving tandem in the country. We got a lot of things going we didn't have last year: experienced defense, special teams, seasoned qb. Every is going off Alabama's first three games which haven't been tough. I don't care what anybody says, Georgia is still good. If going into Georgia and winning is not impressive then I don't know what is. Are they Alabama? No. But they are a good team. I don't see Alabama rolling this year. I see a lot of points scored and not just by Alabama.
        Bama's secondary is young, but I think not having to worry at all about any rushing attack will help. Not to mention that Bama has the best DB coach in the country. Arkansas will get their points, but Bama will get a lot more imo.
        Comment
        • jwbama23
          SBR MVP
          • 01-17-10
          • 2373

          #5
          Originally posted by daprospecta
          I am a homer but everybody is riding bama. Mallet is going to tear apart that young secondary of Alabama. Why do people seem to ignore there secondary is greener than fresh made money. We have(and there is no debate) the best receiving tandem in the country. We got a lot of things going we didn't have last year: experienced defense, special teams, seasoned qb. Every is going off Alabama's first three games which haven't been tough. I don't care what anybody says, Georgia is still good. If going into Georgia and winning is not impressive then I don't know what is. Are they Alabama? No. But they are a good team. I don't see Alabama rolling this year. I see a lot of points scored and not just by Alabama.
          Dude, are you seriously in every thread defending the pigs? If you believe so much in them quit trying to convince everyone that Bama's secondary is gonna suck it up and cause Bama to get torched by the high octain flying pig offense. I personally think Ark is way over rated and struggled to beat a Georgia team who by the way is missing there best player and had a newbie qb.

          Bama by 17+
          Comment
          • daprospecta
            SBR Sharp
            • 01-15-10
            • 473

            #6
            Originally posted by jwbama23
            Dude, are you seriously in every thread defending the pigs? If you believe so much in them quit trying to convince everyone that Bama's secondary is gonna suck it up and cause Bama to get torched by the high octain flying pig offense. I personally think Ark is way over rated and struggled to beat a Georgia team who by the way is missing there best player and had a newbie qb.

            Bama by 17+
            Are you stalking me? You seem to find me in every thread. I give my opinion which the original poster asked for. Get off mine.
            Comment
            • JayTrotter
              SBR Sharp
              • 03-27-10
              • 320

              #7
              This is one of those match ups.

              Petrino versus Saban. Mallet is a very highly publicized cog. He doesn't make reads, he finds guys who are WIDE open. He is very good in a system where the Offensive strategy is light years ahead.

              Saban is probably the best college football coach of the last decade. Petrino is up there too. Louisville had great offenses and some good defenses when he was there. High powered, somewhat tricky offense, vesus the nation's best defense. Should be some low scoring football. This is Mallet's battle for credibility, if he wins this game. He wins the Heisman.

              If he doesn't, he will be another 2nd round QB trying to make it in the NFL
              Comment
              • ackem19
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 10-07-09
                • 669

                #8
                JayTrotter,
                I agree about Mallet. Watching him last week at Georgia, he didn't progress through is reads, he simply made the throw he was supposed to make.

                Daprospecta,
                I think you have a valid point about Bama's secondary and I do believe that will help Arkansas. I still think Bama will win but I won't be wagering on it. Much better games to bet on, like Idaho -7 @ Colorado St. And if everybody really is on Bama, then Ark may be the play. After all, whenever everybody on here is on a team, they typically lose. I.e: GT @ Kansas, or Houston @ UCLA.

                GL to everybody. GET$
                Comment
                • daprospecta
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 01-15-10
                  • 473

                  #9
                  Originally posted by ackem19
                  JayTrotter,
                  I agree about Mallet. Watching him last week at Georgia, he didn't progress through is reads, he simply made the throw he was supposed to make.

                  Daprospecta,
                  I think you have a valid point about Bama's secondary and I do believe that will help Arkansas. I still think Bama will win but I won't be wagering on it. Much better games to bet on, like Idaho -7 @ Colorado St. And if everybody really is on Bama, then Ark may be the play. After all, whenever everybody on here is on a team, they typically lose. I.e: GT @ Kansas, or Houston @ UCLA.

                  GL to everybody. GET$
                  I'm loving the Idaho pick is well
                  Comment
                  • Uncle Harv
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 09-30-09
                    • 238

                    #10
                    great write up. Where do you get those great stats by the way Ackem? Anyway you slice it, Bama's D is good and Arkansas D is not, nor has it ever been. D almost always wins big games as long as there is some offense to go with it...and the Tide have it. Good luck to the Razorbacks trying to bottle up Ingram and Richardson, with a little Julio Jones on top. I could even seeing it being 31-24, but thats still a cover at -6.5.
                    Comment
                    • ackem19
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 10-07-09
                      • 669

                      #11
                      Uncle Harv,
                      Thank you sir. I use several websites including SBR's matchups section, statfox, an box scores from the previous games.
                      Comment
                      • Nova32212
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 03-18-10
                        • 310

                        #12
                        Ncaaf 2010

                        I live in SEC country, and get to see a lot of SEC games.

                        Tide will cover.

                        Take Alabama -7 over Arkansas.

                        This is Alabama's first SEC game of the season.

                        Very seldom will you get Alabama at this low a point spread.

                        This point spread will rise a little between now and gametime.

                        Alabama is a little suspect in the secondary, but they are able to rotate so many players on the defensive line.

                        Don't see Arkansas defense shutting down Bama's offensive weapons.
                        Last edited by Nova32212; 09-21-10, 04:25 PM.
                        Comment
                        • aeshred
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 09-16-09
                          • 239

                          #13
                          I like bama to bitch slap ark. but im gonna wait till the line goes back down before the game...
                          Comment
                          • pohodicka
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 09-06-09
                            • 30

                            #14
                            nice post.
                            Comment
                            • Straight Cash
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-20-09
                              • 2202

                              #15
                              Love 'bama here, Arkansas is solid, they're just not at this level yet.
                              Comment
                              • Ch3fDan
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 02-02-10
                                • 305

                                #16
                                I think the Hogs have a real shot here. I, unlike most people, do think they can get some pressure up the middle of the Bama line. Mallet will have his opportunities against a young and developing secondary, and if he can take advantage of those opportunities they have a real shot. It's not a game I would bet on, but it's a game that I will watch closely and I think the underdogs have a real shot at this one.

                                Not to mention the hogs will be more fired up than they ever have been, this is the biggest game in quite some time for the Arkansas, that house will be rockin!
                                Comment
                                • man_of_steel
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 03-29-10
                                  • 437

                                  #17
                                  Tide should ROLL
                                  Comment
                                  • Superman455
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 09-23-08
                                    • 366

                                    #18
                                    Thanks for the write up. I think bama rolls here. Too much for Arkansas to handle
                                    Comment
                                    • aman86
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 08-29-09
                                      • 3115

                                      #19
                                      really like bama here for reasons listed, arkansas is good but not top 10
                                      Comment
                                      • wacked
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 01-13-09
                                        • 719

                                        #20
                                        I like Bama to win but anything can happen.
                                        Last year Alabama had 4 games they won by 10 points are less.
                                        10, 9, 5 and 2.
                                        The won 2 of those game in the final 5 mins and one in that last 1:30.

                                        I live Arkansas football and I do think Bama is a better team than Arkansas, but -7 is tough to take.
                                        Buy the hook down to -6.5 if you are playing.
                                        I'm not playing this game for obvious reason, see avatar


                                        Originally posted by Nova32212
                                        I live in SEC country, and get to see a lot of SEC games.

                                        Tide will cover.

                                        Take Alabama -7 over Arkansas.

                                        This is Alabama's first SEC game of the season.

                                        Very seldom will you get Alabama at this low a point spread.

                                        This point spread will rise a little between now and gametime.

                                        Alabama is a little suspect in the secondary, but they are able to rotate so many players on the defensive line.

                                        Don't see Arkansas defense shutting down Bama's offensive weapons.
                                        Comment
                                        • Hat McCulloch
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 09-04-10
                                          • 161

                                          #21
                                          good write up. I think Bama wins but I have this feeling that Arkansas wins and shakes everything up. i don't know what I'll do with that feeling picking wise though
                                          Comment
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