Blitz Pickz.....Week 4. Bring it!

[ACCBlitz]

Games I'm looking at for week 4.....keep in mind these are what I'm looking at, haven't locked and loaded on any yet.

Stanford -4.5

Stanford is looking really good this year, and Notre Dame, well, isn't. Stanfords offense is a force to be reckoned with. They are incredibly well balanced and the Irish simply don't have the defense to stop them.

Pitt +3

This one has the feel of Cal/Nevada all over again. I can see either team winning in this spot, so I'm basically feeling out line movement here. Miami at -3 is getting a TON of public play and I'm *guessing* the books knew that would happen, which leads me to believe they're on Pitt winning straight up (haven't seen a moneyline value yet).

Florida State -18

Wake Forest has ZERO defense and we've seen that FSU can pack a punch. Wakes only strength is the run game, which the Noles are actually good at stopping. They bet the Deacons last year at Wake by 13, and that was when they had Riley Skinner. Florida State rolls here.

Air Force -12.5

I'm still not sure why the infatuation with Wyoming. I can't even count the number of people screaming they would cover against Boise last week. I cashed in on Boise -25. Wyoming is simply not good and further more, SUCK against the run. Air Force will literally run them over.

NC State +8

The Wolfpack could be the surprise of the ACC this year. The defense is playing lights out and QB Russell Wilson looks flat out amazing. Georgia Tech is weak against the pass, and State is strong against the run (20th in the nation in rushing defense).

Virginia Tech -4

Last week we saw the awakening of the Hokies everyone was expecting. Boston College is a decent team, but they've struggled this year against inferior competition. Tech should roll, but even if it's close, this line is still at -4, so a TD win covers.

Penn State -15

They BARELY got me a cover last week. It was a good win coming off a blowout and I see that confidence rolling over to this week. Plus I'm just not sold on Temple yet, especially in a road game at State.

GL to all this weekend! I'll eventually narrow this down and pull the trigger on a few

[agharah1]

I agree about Penn State. Temple is a quality MAC team which is nothing short of incredible considering where that program was when Al Golden first took over. But beating egregiously overrated Big East teams like UConn at home is one thing, winning in Happy Valley is something else.

Sadly, I'm still left with the feeling that its not a matter of if, but *when* NC State comes up with a clunker. Its nothing about them in particular, but with ACC teams its to be expected.

[ACCBlitz]

NC State is one of my least confident picks. I know at some point they'll drop back into reality. Like you said, not sure *when*.

[ACCBlitz]

And by the way, I'm drooling over this parlay for fun (I hit 2 last week )

Penn State -6.5
Air Force -6.0
Florida State -10.0
EVEN money = $1 for every $1

[agharah1]

Here's a line that just caught my eye: North Carolina @ Rutgers is a pick'em. I don't see how Rutgers has done anything to deserve that kind of respect, unless UNC has totally collapsed. Rutgers struggled to put away Norfolk State and FIU.

[ACCBlitz]

That's a good one agharah1. I like UNC there.

Locked in Air Force -13.5 (1 Unit) and Florida State -16.5 (1 Unit) before those go any higher.

Probably skipping on Pitt and Stanford.

Still feeling out Penn State, Virginia Tech and NC State.

[jds07v]

If you wish to compare last year's FSU-Wake game, remember that it was late in the season. This meant that Ponder was already out for the season with his shoulder, and EJ Manuel has at the helm for FSU.

[ACCBlitz]

Adding on North Carolina -2.5 over Rutgers and Florida Atlantic over N.Texas -10.0.

So far:
Air Force -13.5 (1 Unit)
Florida State -16.5 (1 Unit)
North Carolina -2.5 (1 Unit)
Florida Atlantic (1 Unit)

[Pavv4]

Nice analysis let's see how it works this week!

[fishmonger]

What you think about maryland and FIU. FIU has some tough losses to good teams. Maryland might lose this one.

[ACCBlitz]

It wouldn't surprise me fish. That team is tough to judge.....FIU +11 looks like it might be a good play. If I were going to play it, I'd wait a bit and see if it nears +14. Good chance considering the general public will see Maryland (who beat Navy, blew out Morgan State and played average @ West Virginia) playing FIU and probably pound the hell out of them.

[Better2Belucky]

ACC, I just took a peak at your spread sheet. It's a good looking start. My advice to you is stay away from USC and Hawaii. That's 5 of your 8 loses. None the less I'm tailing you the rest of the way.

GL

[ACCBlitz]

Yeah, USC got me with their lack of defense in Week 1. Then Week 3, things were good against Minnesota until they allowed a back door freakin' cover with 11 seconds left They are tempting at -23 against Washington State. odds are they won't start the year 0-4 ATS, but I'll hold off.

Hawaii, that was a last second decision. Got baited in by reading posts about it - won't happen again. They were actually up 10-0 at half I believe, that's the funny part. Trust me, I'm kicking my own ass about it.

Thanks for the read/compliment about the start

[ACCBlitz]

Lil update: Had some fun last weekend with 2 parlays for fun (hit both). Did 2 more for this week (below), probably adding a ML and straight cover (no teaser) parlay tonight.

Thursday Teaser:
Miami +3.5/OVER 41
***First and Goal with a minute left and f*****g Pitt can't score to at least give me a push

Saturday Teaser:
USC -15.5
Virginia Tech +3
USF -20

Keep in mind these are for fun, no REAL bankroll risk

[ACCBlitz]

I'll be offline for the next day or so.....final picks for the weekend. And yes, scoff all you want - I'm throwing no $$$ on any dogs this weekend. I see value in a few low lines for the favorites just because they're on the road (ie. VT, Bama, UNC, ORE).

WEEK 4
Air Force -13.5
Florida State -16.5
North Carolina -2.5
Florida Atlantic -10.0
Boise State -17.0
Virginia Tech -4
Alabama -7
Oregon -10

GL guys

[THE PROFIT]

good lookin card, Blitz. On many of those myself. My Best pick was FAU, I got it -6.5 & -7, even put more at -8. I still like it at -10 but Fuuuuuuuk thats a lot of movement

[ACCBlitz]

good lookin card, Blitz. On many of those myself. My Best pick was FAU, I got it -6.5 & -7, even put more at -8. I still like it at -10 but Fuuuuuuuk thats a lot of movement

Thanks Profit. The FAU play was a last second one for me. I too like -10, even with the massive movement.

Normally, I play the lines a little more (movement and what not), but not this weekend. GL man

[DblDeuce]

Looks good, BOL.

[DblDeuce]

Especially the dogs. Thanks.

[Dutch]

Those picks look pretty damn good. I'm with you on..

AF-13.5
'Bama-7
Fl. Atl.-9.5

[THE PROFIT]

FAU jumped out & me because I figured them to be a 18-20 point fav without NTX bringing cheerleaders off the sideline due to injuries

[THE PROFIT]

A couple more, just FYI, that I think the lines are way off is Fresno should be a DD fav, but ole piss is just getting that SEC respect at home. louisiana lafayette should be about a TD fav at home over MTSU, but are catching 2 points. I cant figure that one out. Does Vegas keep forgetting that Dasher is fukin out??? ULL 3-1-1 ATS in this series, MTSU 1-5 ATS in conference openers, ULL is 6-1 ATS following their first win, oh yeah, & did I mention, DASHER is FUKIN OUT!

[ACCBlitz]

Great game tonight.....SMU is better than I thought. TCU hit on both plays I had them on though
Straight Up Plays Week 4:
Air Force -13.5
Florida State -16.5
North Carolina -2.5
Florida Atlantic -10.0
Boise State -17.0
Virginia Tech -4
Alabama -7
Oregon -10


Went 2-0 on some 'just for fun' parlays last weekend.....few more for shits and giggles

Pays 3.50:1
Football NCAA - TCU Horned Frogs -1000 for Game
Football NCAA - Purdue Boilermakers -450 for Game
Football NCAA - Penn State Nittany Lions -550 for Game
Football NCAA - Connecticut Huskies -1400 for Game
Football NCAA - Missouri Tigers -1200 for Game
Football NCAA - Air Force Falcons -500 for Game
Football NCAA - Oklahoma Sooners -475 for Game
Football NCAA - Boise State Broncos -900 for Game
Football NCAA - Texas Longhorns -650 for Game
Football NCAA - USC Trojans -1800 for Game
Football NCAA - Kansas Jayhawks -1800 for Game
Football NCAA - Florida Gators -600 for Game

Pays 18:1
Football NCAA - Florida State Seminoles -11 -110 for Game
Football NCAA - Air Force Falcons -5 -110 for Game
Football NCAA - Penn State Nittany Lions -4 -110 for Game
Football NCAA - Oklahoma Sooners -5½ -110 for Game
Football NCAA - Boise State Broncos -8½ -110 for Game
Football NCAA - Alabama Crimson Tide +1 -115 for Game
Football NCAA - Florida Gators -4½ -110 for Game
Football NCAA - North Carolina Tar Heels +5½ -110 for Game
Football NCAA - Oregon Ducks -3½ -110 for Game
Football NCAA - Texas Longhorns -8 -110 for Game
Football NCAA - NC State Wolfpack +17 -110 for Game
Football NCAA - TCU Horned Frogs -10 -110 for Game
Football NCAA - Florida Atlantic Owls -2 -110 for Game
Football NCAA - Virginia Tech Hokies +4 -110 for Game

Pays .90:1 (-110)
Football NCAA - Virginia Tech Hokies +3 -110 for Game
Football NCAA - USC Trojans -15½ -110 for Game
Football NCAA - South Florida Bulls -20 -110 for Game

[fishmonger]

Good luck with your plays but don't you think you got a lot of favs on your card. Just an observation.

[ACCBlitz]

I do. Normally I would have some dogs but all of these (with the lines I took them at) fell pretty damn close to where I capped them.

The big money teased parlay has a few dogs though.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Gl tomorrow bro.

[ACCBlitz]

Gl tomorrow bro.

Thanks man, you too