College Football Odds: Texas at Texas Tech
Texas Tech has long gone about business in the Big 12 with a chip on its shoulder and feeling like the red-headed stepchild pf the conference. The Red Raiders would like nothing more than to take down the favored big brother from Austin tonight in Lubbock when they battle the Longhorns. Texas is a field goal favorite at the college football betting windows, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.
Bettors get their first crack at the Big 12 schedule when No. 6 Texas (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) plays its first road game of the season in Lubbock against Texas Tech (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) on Saturday night (8 p.m. ET, ABC).
This is a difficult game to handicap because neither the Longhorns nor Red Raiders have played anyone of significance thus far. Texas doesn’t appear to be as strong as the Colt McCoy-led team that went to the BCS Championship Game last season, but it’s impossible to tell at this point.
Oddsmakers opened the Longhorns as 4-point road favorites for the matchup, but they were available at -3 and -3½ as of press. The total is on the college football betting odds board between 51½ to 52½ depending on the shop.
Leaving the spread aside for a moment, the ‘over’ looks like the smart wager on the total despite Texas’ 0-2 O/U mark to start the season. The ‘Horns are 20-9-1 O/U in their last 30 road games, and the ‘over’ has cashed in six of the last eight meetings between the schools.
For their part, the Raiders are 7-3 O/U in their last 10 games at Jones AT&T Stadium, and have played ‘over’ in their first two contests to start the 2010 campaign.
The low-fifties number is also down from last year’s 66-point total the teams faced in Austin, and that’s a reflection of the public perception of Texas’ offense with Garrett Gilbert running the show instead of McCoy.
Look for square bettors to fall in love with the ‘over’ across the board this week after close to 70% of all games went that way through the two first weeks of action. Last season, only 46% of games played ‘over’ the total through Week 2.
What’s going on? Essentially, FBS schools are lighting it up against Division II opponents, and sportsbooks haven’t adjusted. In the 93 games involving two FBS programs through the first two weeks, the ‘over’ has cashed only 41 times.
The lesson? The supposed ‘over’ trend is overrated.
Texas Tech has two distinct advantages heading into Saturday night: It’s playing at home, and it has a senior quarterback in Taylor Potts. Gilbert is making the first road start of his career for Texas on Saturday night. We all know Lubbock isn’t a fun place to play for anyone – let alone a wet behind the ears QB.
Historically, the Longhorns have had a tough time on the road against the Red Raiders. Head coach Mack Brown is only 3-3 SU in six trips to Lubbock, and Texas is just 9-9 SU there since 1974 despite having a much stronger program.
Texas Tech cashed as 3½-point underdogs in its 39-33 win over Texas in Lubbock two years ago, but that was in the days of the Graham Harrell-Michael Crabtree connection.
I’d be more inclined to look at the Longhorns’ 34-24 win in Austin last season. Yes, Texas got the win, but it was nowhere close to covering as 19½-point chalk.
The Longhorns won’t have McCoy or wide receiver Jordan Shipley this time around, Gilbert is playing his first road game, and Potts is looking comfortable under center for Tommy Tuberville.
You could make the argument the Raiders outplayed the Longhorns in last season’s meeting, too. The schools were tied 17-17 midway through the third quarter, and Texas Tech had more first downs (25) than Texas (20). The Red Raiders outgained them 414-340 on the day, even though they lost six yards rushing from scrimmage.
Potts also got the best of McCoy, going 46-of-62 for 420 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. He’ll surely do even better against a revamped and unproven Longhorns secondary that’s allowed the likes of Wyoming and Rice to complete 65% of its passes.
Potts was 22-of-34 for 293 yards with three TDs in Texas Tech’s 52-17 win at New Mexico last week, as the Raiders (-24½) shut out the Lobos in the second half.
Texas Tech has long gone about business in the Big 12 with a chip on its shoulder and feeling like the red-headed stepchild pf the conference. The Red Raiders would like nothing more than to take down the favored big brother from Austin tonight in Lubbock when they battle the Longhorns. Texas is a field goal favorite at the college football betting windows, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.
Bettors get their first crack at the Big 12 schedule when No. 6 Texas (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) plays its first road game of the season in Lubbock against Texas Tech (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) on Saturday night (8 p.m. ET, ABC).
This is a difficult game to handicap because neither the Longhorns nor Red Raiders have played anyone of significance thus far. Texas doesn’t appear to be as strong as the Colt McCoy-led team that went to the BCS Championship Game last season, but it’s impossible to tell at this point.
Oddsmakers opened the Longhorns as 4-point road favorites for the matchup, but they were available at -3 and -3½ as of press. The total is on the college football betting odds board between 51½ to 52½ depending on the shop.
Leaving the spread aside for a moment, the ‘over’ looks like the smart wager on the total despite Texas’ 0-2 O/U mark to start the season. The ‘Horns are 20-9-1 O/U in their last 30 road games, and the ‘over’ has cashed in six of the last eight meetings between the schools.
For their part, the Raiders are 7-3 O/U in their last 10 games at Jones AT&T Stadium, and have played ‘over’ in their first two contests to start the 2010 campaign.
The low-fifties number is also down from last year’s 66-point total the teams faced in Austin, and that’s a reflection of the public perception of Texas’ offense with Garrett Gilbert running the show instead of McCoy.
Look for square bettors to fall in love with the ‘over’ across the board this week after close to 70% of all games went that way through the two first weeks of action. Last season, only 46% of games played ‘over’ the total through Week 2.
What’s going on? Essentially, FBS schools are lighting it up against Division II opponents, and sportsbooks haven’t adjusted. In the 93 games involving two FBS programs through the first two weeks, the ‘over’ has cashed only 41 times.
The lesson? The supposed ‘over’ trend is overrated.
Texas Tech has two distinct advantages heading into Saturday night: It’s playing at home, and it has a senior quarterback in Taylor Potts. Gilbert is making the first road start of his career for Texas on Saturday night. We all know Lubbock isn’t a fun place to play for anyone – let alone a wet behind the ears QB.
Historically, the Longhorns have had a tough time on the road against the Red Raiders. Head coach Mack Brown is only 3-3 SU in six trips to Lubbock, and Texas is just 9-9 SU there since 1974 despite having a much stronger program.
Texas Tech cashed as 3½-point underdogs in its 39-33 win over Texas in Lubbock two years ago, but that was in the days of the Graham Harrell-Michael Crabtree connection.
I’d be more inclined to look at the Longhorns’ 34-24 win in Austin last season. Yes, Texas got the win, but it was nowhere close to covering as 19½-point chalk.
The Longhorns won’t have McCoy or wide receiver Jordan Shipley this time around, Gilbert is playing his first road game, and Potts is looking comfortable under center for Tommy Tuberville.
You could make the argument the Raiders outplayed the Longhorns in last season’s meeting, too. The schools were tied 17-17 midway through the third quarter, and Texas Tech had more first downs (25) than Texas (20). The Red Raiders outgained them 414-340 on the day, even though they lost six yards rushing from scrimmage.
Potts also got the best of McCoy, going 46-of-62 for 420 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. He’ll surely do even better against a revamped and unproven Longhorns secondary that’s allowed the likes of Wyoming and Rice to complete 65% of its passes.
Potts was 22-of-34 for 293 yards with three TDs in Texas Tech’s 52-17 win at New Mexico last week, as the Raiders (-24½) shut out the Lobos in the second half.