CAL @ NEVADA Thoughts...

**Jakesteen** · 09-17-10, 02:37 PM

WOW...57 views and nobody has an opinion. hahaha.

**kiln** · 09-17-10, 02:44 PM

try looking here: http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...-handicapping/

**THE PROFIT** · 09-17-10, 02:52 PM

Cal 0-4 ATS off b2b wins before Arizona
HC Tedford 14-22-1 off SU b2b wins, including 3-12-1 L16
Nevada 36-14 SU & 30-14-1 ATS in their L50 home games
Nevada HC Ault 6-0 ATS at home as fav or dog of less than 7 vs non-conf
and 19-5 SU & 11-3-1 ATS at home off previous home game.

I lean Nevada, but then again I'm as cold as an eskimo cooch right now

**daprospecta** · 09-17-10, 03:05 PM

My thoughts are stay away. This game seems to hard to cap either way.

**orangeheaven** · 09-17-10, 03:22 PM

Nevada for me.

**Golokhov** · 09-17-10, 03:35 PM

Tough spot here. I really view this as a coin flip.

Cal came out and stomped Colorado last week - I mean absolutely dismantled them worse than anybody thought. But it would be very typical of this Cal team to come out and lay down the next week.

I don't think they come out flat, but this is a tough spot.

My best advice to you would be look at the two games Cal played last year against mobile quarterbacks: Oregon's Jeremiah Masoli and Washington's Jake Locker.

Masoli ran for 21 yards but completed 21 of 25 passes for 253 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in a 42-3 Oregon win. Masoli left the game after three quarters.

Locker did not play the entire game against Cal either, because he worked them over so badly as well. He ran for 77 yards while completing 19 of 23 passes for 248 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in a 42-10 route.

Nevada's QB, Colin Kaepernick is a duel-threat, four-year starter. He's also got a great running back with him in the backfield. Nevada will score and score regularly. It's just a matter of whether Cal either slow them down or play ball control and keep away.

The reason I think it's a coin flip is because Cal has a new defensive coordinator in Clancy Pendergast and better outside linebackers than they had last year. So really, it is possible that they have prepared/improved for this type of quarterback.

Then again, Cal always stinks when they are ranked and they are now No. 24.

As you can tell, I'm wavering, which is why I don't have a real prediction in this game but if you forced me to, I'd say Nevada uses this game as a springboard for the Colin Kaepernick for Heisman debate. I think they come out big in a nationally televised game and spring a small upset.

**ACCBlitz** · 09-17-10, 03:38 PM

Nevada +4.5 (.5 Units) here

Tough tough call, this is actually the only line this week where I'm basing my betting on not only analysis but line movement and book probability as well.

**khaden** · 09-17-10, 05:10 PM

Tough one, I've been flip flopping all week on this, right now I'm leaning Cal, Nevada has a tough time playing the bigger out of conference schools. I think they will hang in and play a tough game but I see Cal winning in the 4th Q

**TheAccountant** · 09-17-10, 05:25 PM

Linesmakers must expect Cal to come out sluggish after that big win and on the road in Nevada. I don't buy it - I feel like Cal will win by two TDs. These west coast games are always a struggle for me though. Can anyone speak to the homefield advantage in Nevada?

**ManBearPig** · 09-17-10, 05:26 PM

I am a Nevada fan and will actually be at the game tonight so take for what it's worth. I know it's real easy to quickly judge us based on the past but I really think our defense is going to be improved this year and hopefully we'll have a better idea after this game. We have a new DC new personnel and are trying to find our identity.

Neither Cal or us has played anyone that can even give us an accurate idea how things will fall. Ignoring all the stupid historical facts I know this. We will score our points, especially at home, the question is how many stops can we get? For all those who think that we're going to get smoked and made a bet on that are in for an awakening.

Sure CAL can easily cover this line, but we're just as capable of winning outright and people are really underestimating the energy and determination that the team has to prove themselves once and for all and the energy the crowd will bring. Besides the Boise State game and UNLV, this is a game the guys know they can win and are expecting to win. While we're not known for our large stadium and killer fan support, when they want to, Reno fans are fully capable of jumping on the wagon and going all out and creating a huge home field advantage. They just don't show up most of the time because we usually are 0-2 and not 2-0 right now. This game appears to be completely sold out, which is rare for us so I'm interested to see how many show up. We don't count tickets sold like everyone else, we count the at the gates so our attendance number are always lower than everyone else.

I'm looking forward to a competitive game that can go either way.

**Metalhead** · 09-17-10, 05:33 PM

I'm on Cal for this one. I don't see how Nevada is going to keep Cal off the scoreboard enough to keep it close.

**falconticket** · 09-17-10, 05:38 PM

I think kaepernick has a big day. I like the over too.

**ManBearPig** · 09-17-10, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by Metalhead

I'm on Cal for this one. I don't see how Nevada is going to keep Cal off the scoreboard enough to keep it close.

Maybe on the road but I think you guys are really undervaluing how well we play at home. We never sell out so just that fact will have the players playing at an even higher level than normal because they will be playing at 110% the whole game. Do you think Cal cares about this game as much as we do? They're probably looking at one eye to next week. I've heard rumblings that the players on cal feel the same as you guys do...bad idea IMO.
You guys are consoling yourselves with the fact that Cal is close and can travel well. This will NOT matter as much as everyone thinks.

When we lost to Texas Tech (when they beat Texas with Crabtree) and Missouri at home those weren't blow outs...we were in both games in the 4th and could've had both games it it weren't for a couple plays that went the other way. It'll come down to who makes the least mistakes.

**MUHerd37** · 09-17-10, 05:46 PM

I don't know how you can bet this game. Both teams absolutely destroyed their 2 shitty opponents. I don't know how you can cap this game. There just isn't much to go on with this game.

**ManBearPig** · 09-17-10, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by MUHerd37

I don't know how you can bet this game. Both teams absolutely destroyed their 2 shitty opponents. I don't know how you can cap this game. There just isn't much to go on with this game.

The best advice I think.

There's so many easier games to play tomorrow to win money on that this should be a non-play. With only 2 games tonight so many people just want to bet on something so they have to pick a side and historically Cal is the pick, which may be true. More power to those who win.

**Mthorn** · 09-17-10, 05:54 PM

Im dropping alot on cal. Should be an easy one