week by week picks

[luclongley]

we shall see what happens. for some reason, this weekend seemed to set up for teasers really well, which i hate to do.

tonight:
3-team 10 pt. special
WVU -2.5, Houston -10 and over 65.5

tomorrow:
Bama -11.5 (prob add more to this tomorrow if the line doesnt inflate like crazy and i win tonight)
G. Tech -13.5 (impossible to prepare for that option in a week, plus KU is in the drain after that embarrassment)
S.C. -3 (this line is not moving which scares me, b/c Green isnt playing, hopefully vegas is wrong)

3-team 10 pt. special
LSU pick, Oregon -2, Bama -2

prob will add in bets on Texas Tech and LSU tomorrow, maybe more

[HailtoPitt]

GL man. i like pitt obviously

[luclongley]

all bets to win one unit this week
(1.2 to win 1 on the teasers, 1.1 to win 1 on the straights)

[luclongley]

added:
Michigan/ND over 52 (not fully confident in this one, but I feel that Michigan's secondary won't be able to keep up with the ND receivers, and they'll put more points up this week with a week of game reps under their belt)

[luclongley]

add:
Stanford -.5 2nd half (they just seem like the much better team, gut feel)

[luclongley]

add:
USC/Virginia over 24.5 2nd half (pretty confident, both teams have moved the ball well)

[luclongley]

5-2 for the college football day, up 2.8 units

Might as well do NFL picks in here to:
Early Games (1 p.m.)
Steelers +1: This is the perfect example of a starting qb being out, and the rest of the team rallying and picking their games up. Add in Dixon's experience (played on the road vs. Ravens), and defensive health, AND the home crowd, I love the home underdog

Colts -1: I find it so interesting how people are on Houston. They're a good team, and quite an explosive offense, but Peyton does not lose to the Texans. Cushing is out, Dunta is gone, this completely adds up to Peyton tossing is around the field all day, plus the Colts D is actually healthy

Lions/Bears over 44.5: I'd def. take the lions if the line was 7.5, but that 6.5 scares me in a week 1 matchup. A martz offense does 2 things; scores points and turns the ball over. Not to mention I'm a believer in the lions offense this year, and both D's will be average at best.

Pats/Bengals over 44: 2 explosive offenses (although I dont have as much faith in Palmer anymore), 44's not enough here

[luclongley]

adding in Pats -5. I think its Brady's year to claim a top qb spot again

[luclongley]

adding:
Packers -3, over 48, single bets

[luclongley]

adding:
Washington +3.5: Dallas' o-line is in complete shambles. As long as mcnabb doesnt turn the ball over constantly, I like washington