1)This is the most overhyped Boise team ever - Boise has never been ranked anywhere close to #3 in the preseason; they're highest rank in the last 5 years was #16 last year..Boise is so used to being the underdog, and now they have to travel to Maryland (the farthest they've traveled in awhile) to play VT, who sould have a semi-homefield adv. I just don't think Boise will deal well with all this hype and pressure that they're not used to so early in the season on the road against a #10, VERY good and well coached VT team.
2)Who has Boise beaten on the road (neutral, but practically)?? - Boise is 1-3 on the road vs BCS schools in the last 5 years. In 2005, they lost @ Georgia 48-13, and @ Oregon State 30-27. In 2007, they lost at Washington 24-10. They're lone win was @ Oregon in 2008. Boise has also lost at Fresno in 2005 and at Hawaii in 2007. Other than that, they've basically played nobody of worth home or away with dreadfully weak schedules year after year, including an 87th ranked SOS this year.
3)RLM - It's clear that Boise is a small public fav getting close to 55-60% action, and yet the line has steadily moved from Boise -3 in early August, all the way to Boise +1.5 now. "Sharp money" is obviously driving this line the other way, and it would seem that with such drastic line movement Vegas might be a little desperate to try and entice more action on Boise. Though, RLM can be overblown, the
s should always be going off when you see such drastic RLM.4)Match-ups - They key here could be VT's run against Boise's run D. VT was 14th in the run in the nation last year with 208 ypg. Boise was ranked 28th in run D with 130 ypg, but gave up 324 @ Fresno (heavy run team) and 242 to Nevada (another heavy run team). VT's RB Ryan Williams is one of the best in the country and I think will be the difference in this game. I think the run will set up some very nice play action and QB draw opportunities for VT's mobile QB, Tyrod Taylor, who ran for 320 yards and 5 TDs last season. VT's Defense overall I think can contain Boise. They were 14th in scoring D last year, and 11th in Passing D. VT's special teams could come up big here too, as they often do, and be the difference in the game.
and Good Luck.
