Wal's Week #2 Plays

[wal66]

Good opening week but the journey has just begun. This is the last week of me doing plays on my own. Next week I will be able to run the numbers through my program and go from there.

Much of what I am playing this week are based on performances from this previous weekend while others are what I believe to be line value. Now understand, I am no line expert by any means so don’t put much stock in what I assume to be value or how I might anticipate lines to move.

Georgia @ South Carolina -2.5

We have a ranked Georgia team at an unranked South Carolina as an underdog. We have players on both squads in doubt due to suspensions they may or may not still be serving. We, ok, I have a team that I have already promoted as being a serious contender to win the SEC East this year. Which ever team comes out victorious in this game they will be sitting in a very good spot and the loser facing a very difficult road ahead in terms of playing for the SEC Title.

I had hoped that Georgia would be favored in this spot but my wishes obviously weren’t granted by the lines makers. I figured it would be Georgia favored by 3 and that would give me a chance at not only playing my first dog of the season but a ML play as well. Well thank you very much Vegas, I have to continue my favorites run of selections.

South Carolina 24-17

Western Kentucky @ Kentucky -23.5

Kentucky looked pretty good in their win against an improved Louisville team this past weekend. Cob and company possess some serious explosiveness and even looked to play at a little better flow and more discipline.

Much of this dame will depend on how Kentucky decides to play. If they want to continue to set the tempo and increase player’s confidence before opening with SEC play then they win this game easy by 31+. I am hoping that is what the Wildcats are planning on doing.

Kentucky 49 -10

Rice +2 @ North Texas

Look, I don’t have a good reason for betting this game or these teams. I did catch a little of the Rice game on Saturday and saw a team with a lot of scrappiness but they are still Rice and there are better teams to place wagers on.

My initial instinct was that Rice would win this game and be favored and since they weren’t I thought I had a value here. Might be completely wrong but I like Rice to win the game outright.

Rice 27-17

Florida St +8.5 @ Oklahoma

When I first saw this line it was 10 but by the time my book offered it 8.5 is where they had it. I anticipated the line would move down through the week to around 7 so at 10 I would have loved it but at 8.5 I’m still happy.

I have already talked about this game. It all boils down to just how disciplined FSU plays. If they play error free football they win this game outright. They simply have too much speed and too much talent all over the field.

I want to grab the brass ring and go for the ML but I will play it safe and take the points even though I truly see an FSU victory here.

Florida St 31-17

Miami +9.5 @ Ohio St

I am guilty at times of allowing my personal feelings influence my decision making. I have gotten better over the years but it still happens from time to time. It is influencing this game as well. I don’t like Miami much but I really don’t like Ohio St.

Now just because I don’t like a team doesn’t mean that I would allow that to be my sole reasoning for placing a wager on them. In fact if that were my only reasoning I would definitely pass. There is more though, I really feel Miami is the better talented team overall, I think the team speed of Miami will be too much of a problem for Ohio St and I just simply feel that if Miami can somehow win this game it is the trigger that catapults them all the way to the promise land this season.

Ok, I got a little carried away there but I really like their chances here. Just like with FSU though I am definitely taking the points but really I don’t think they matter much. In this game Miami either plays up to their full potential and wins outright or they make mistakes and turn the ball over and lose by 17+.

Miami 24-21

I hate the fact that I have 3 games where I like the dog to win outright and in all 3 games I am still taking the points. It just feels wimpy.


Plays:
South Carolina -2.5
Kentucky -23.5
Rice +2
Florida St +8.5
Miami +9.5

[Addicted2Action]

looks solid as always wal....cant wait to start seeing your computer generated numbers, used them a lot last year as a jumping off point...gl and keep up the good work

[BOBBYW]

Thanx for the pix wal and bolty....great writeups....

[rockaflocka]

Ohio state is a much more talented team with a better coach. They also have the fastest, most athletic QB in cfb as well as great defense. Theres no possible way they lose this game, but that being said it will be tough to give 9 points to the U. GL on the rest of your wagers

[BigDofBA]

You really think Florida State has more speed and talent than OU?

OU has only lost two home games in the past 10 years. If this game was in Tallahassee I would take FSU but since it's in Norman I still like the Sooners.

FSU played Samford. I don't think we have really learned that much about the Seminoles.

OU played Utah State but I don't think Utah State is as bad as they have been in the past. Aren't they predicted to finish third in the WAC? That being said, OU didn't look like a top 10 team against Utah State but I like the fact that got tested a little bit.

It is possible that FSU wins but I think the 8.5 spread is about right. Be careful with this one.

[itchypickle]

I like Kentucky, Noles and Miami but think I'm going to take UGA to beat the Cocks. Good luck

[bballs84]

BOL WAL card looks great bud

[naloboy]

like ur picks except for ohio st. i believe there in it to win it even by the number.

[wal66]

Good dialog guys we need more of this, I personally love opposing opinions.

Both the FSU and the Miami games fall into the same category in my mind. If all 4 teams play their "A" game then upsets in both are very real posibilities and th points are too many. Naturally that is a huge IF but not impossible.

I over-valued Florida last week and I actually had seen them practice in the spring and summer. I may very well be over-valuing FSU and Miami here but I thinks it's a valued risk with the points.

I hope these games live up to their potential if they do we all will be witness to some great games.

Keep the comments coming guys, that's what we re here for. Even if you disagree there is good that can come from it for those viewing.

[mcbaseball10]

Good luck this week Wally.

[zacharyj53]

I am wondering how much that UGA line will change if Green is cleared?

[KingsKourt]

I don't like Miami to win but cover. I think you're right on with Florida State

BOL this week. There are 3 big times games

[naloboy]

looks good wals but try this card out; tex; t.tech; hi; w.virg; no write ups just a bettors mind. added play pitt; neb; vt; aub; nw.

[wal66]

Let's get some dialog going guys. Anyone new to my thread, I don't take it personal if you disagree with any of the selections. I'm not trying to sell anyone on my plays or tell anyone that their plays are bad. Open and honest discusions can often open avenues of inlightenment that might otherwise have been missed.

So let's chat this week's card up.

[goallinebob]

On all your plays but Cocks,,,,,,,Although should be a hell of a game,,,,I'll take the points and Bulldogs

best to you this year,,,,,

would love your thoughts on
WV
G/T
Wisc
Neb
Oregon
A&M
SDS
T/T
Rutg
all these are on my best plays,,,,

[lyon804]

Wall, why not round out your selections with the Tide at home against PSU. I really think PSU is going to be stunned and the true Freshman QB will be a dear in headlights in that venue. True Bama's defense lost talent from last season, but with the road crowd of 100,000+ and seeing complicated defensive schemes I think this will be ugly for PSU.

[xyzky]

Glad you put that Rice game down, I overlooked that game! I have them as a much improved team this year...

[bypp]

Looks good wal. Lookin forward to your computer analyses this season

[wal66]

On all your plays but Cocks,,,,,,,Although should be a hell of a game,,,,I'll take the points and Bulldogs

best to you this year,,,,,

would love your thoughts on
WV
G/T
Wisc
Neb
Oregon
A&M
SDS
T/T
Rutg
all these are on my best plays,,,,

Only one of those games I really looked into and had on my card was Oregon. What they did last week was impressive and could be something that shows promise this season. This is the type of game that would always catch my attention in the past and if I won I was like, cool but when I lost I tormented myself for missing something so obvious. Something just looks off about it. Could very well be everyones idea about the SEC which in many respects is true but often times is misleading.

Goodluck with your card this week.

[wal66]

Lyon, the Tide would fit nicely on my card and probably should be there. For whatever reason I am limiting myself to 5 games this week as well as last week because these are not program selections. Early in the season and all and trying to have some dicipline. That said though, Alabama might be a better choice than some of the games on my card especially the Georgia/South Carolina game. Much can go wrong in that game.

[lyon804]

Lyon, the Tide would fit nicely on my card and probably should be there. For whatever reason I am limiting myself to 5 games this week as well as last week because these are not program selections. Early in the season and all and trying to have some dicipline. That said though, Alabama might be a better choice than some of the games on my card especially the Georgia/South Carolina game. Much can go wrong in that game.

Well, it gambling and it's football so a multitude of things can and will happen. That being said I took the Tide this morning and will live with it. I can't see PSU going in that venue and winning. The only question is the # in the end and I don't see it going down to the wire. I just don't see PSU as a live dog this week. Playing on the road against an experienced physical offense spells trouble. Bama's defense is young and untested for the most part, but being at home will help and the Freshman QB should help as well.

Wal I really like the 1H in that game. I imagine the 1H will be -7 or less when it is released. Alabama usually starts fast at home.

[lyon804]

On another note wal... Is Florida going to be ok? What happend? Was they just out of sync all day because of the QB center exchange? What's the deal? Has Pouncey not practiced at center? Did not see but some of the 2H and Florida was looking better at that point. The boxscore was ugly.

[wal66]

Gosh darn it Lyon, you are making me really test my self-control here. Between Alabama and that Memphis/ECU line I am tempted to push my luck and add 2 more games.

I will make it clear if I do have any add-ons though.

[lyon804]

Gosh darn it Lyon, you are making me really test my self-control here. Between Alabama and that Memphis/ECU line I am tempted to push my luck and add 2 more games.

I will make it clear if I do have any add-ons though.

Well, you had a nice Week 1. If I was you I would do what I felt comfortable with and not put a cap on my games. If you like 7 games bet 7 games. if you like only 4 than just bet 4.

[wal66]

On another note wal... Is Florida going to be ok? What happend? Was they just out of sync all day because of the QB center exchange? What's the deal? Has Pouncey not practiced at center? Did not see but some of the 2H and Florida was looking better at that point. The boxscore was ugly.

Part of the problem is credited to Miami-Ohio defense being a little quicker than anticipated. Pouncey wasn't prepared for the speed, course that's no excuse but it did cause much of the problem. If you don't practice against a noseguard and then you play heads up on one then it causes problems.

That was a huge problem but the more concerning problem is Steve Addazio, the offensive coordinator. His play calling has sucked since being given the job. He's predictable and unimaginative. He needs to focus on the offensive line (whichis a problem as well) and the play calling duties be given to someone else.

Florida has the talent on the field but I'm not so sure we have what it takes on the sidelines to be what we can be this year. Hopefully the talent will overcome some of the ineptitude.

[lyon804]

Part of the problem is credited to Miami-Ohio defense being a little quicker than anticipated. Pouncey wasn't prepared for the speed, course that's no excuse but it did cause much of the problem. If you don't practice against a noseguard and then you play heads up on one then it causes problems.

That was a huge problem but the more concerning problem is Steve Addazio, the offensive coordinator. His play calling has sucked since being given the job. He's predictable and unimaginative. He needs to focus on the offensive line (whichis a problem as well) and the play calling duties be given to someone else.

Florida has the talent on the field but I'm not so sure we have what it takes on the sidelines to be what we can be this year. Hopefully the talent will overcome some of the ineptitude.

Thanks for the insights. I wasn't watching the game but I heard people talking about the offense struggling and as soon as I turned it over Demps broke one for 70+ yds. I thought what struggling? No doubt Florida has talent. I am sure they will get the kinks worked out. That's why it's good to start with the Miami Ohio's of the world. Florida wins by 22+ points and everybody is asking what's wrong with Florida.

[wal66]

3-2 on the day for a slight profit.

Miami and FSU were bitter disappointments. I knew going in they would have to play up to their full potential and then some and they didn’t.

Also cost myself an additional win by never getting around to that East Carolina game.

Season is at 7-3 and next week I will have program plays.