Thursday, September 2nd
Southern Miss @ South Carolina (-14) 7:30 PM ESPN
The Gamecocks open on ESPN for the 4th time in Spurrier’s 5 years. Though S. Miss returns 9 on defense, the veteran Carolina offense behind QB Garcia returns over 90% of their yards. But biggest advantage for the Gamecocks will be their active, veteran defense against a rebuilding S. Miss. offensive line. LM has made adjustments for what he believes to be these gaps. This bureau does not believe his adjustments are enough.
Marshall @ Ohio State (-28-) 7:30 PM EST BIG 10 TV
Expect big things from new Marshall HC Holliday, the former assistant at WVU. He is a great recruiter and understands the value of speed. Senior QB Anderson and prolific skill players will add up to CUSA victories and a possible “hang at the number” in this opening week contest. Ohio State is once again the class of the Big 10 and may challenge for national supremacy. However, they are 0-3 ATS in their first lined games against Navy, Ohio U. and Akron L3Y, all with look aheads the following week. Did I mention Miami, FL comes to Columbus next Saturday.
Northern Illinois @ Iowa State (-4-) 8:00 PM EST
Vast diversity in the strength of schedule points out the Big 12 home team vs. the MAC traveler. Though it must be noted that NIU has covered 7 straight away vs. non-cons, they are a veteran group with over 90% of their offense and over 80% of their tackles returning. But they still lack the beef along their interior lines. ISU has experienced senior QB Arnaud, quality receivers, and strong runner in Robinson. In HC Rhoads’ 2nd year, look for both team cohesion and defense to improve. This a must win, knowing the strength of their Big 12 slate, if ISU expects to repeat their winning season of 2009.
Pitt @ Utah (-3) 8:30 PM EST VERSUS
My first instinct about this game is that it would be a tough test for the Panthers playing a game at altitude with a first time starting QB and a retooled offensive line. Utah has won 17 straight home games. Though Wannstedt’s trends, 12-6 ATS away, 9-4 ATS dog L3Y, cooled me a bit, I still believe Utah is the right side. This match up pits a pair of outstanding defenses featuring a Panther DL that led the nation with 47 sacks LY. Utah is far more complex, favoring a myriad of stunts and blitzes. Much is the same for the offenses which will find Pitt relying on the running game behind RB Lewis, while Utah will mix their offense using 3 QB’s to run a passing offense, running offense, and Wildcat package. Can only imagine this causing nightmares for the Panther coaching staff. In a defensive dominated game, favor the diversity of both the Utah offense and defense on their strong home field at altitude.
USC (-21-) @ Hawaii 11:00 PM EST ESPN
Following the off season debacle that has been USC, new HC Kiffin may well be ready to make a statement in this opening game. The largest mismatch will be their defensive front 7 that should totally outmatch the rebuilding offensive line of Hawaii. The public has pushed this line over 3 TD’s making it tough to back the favorite in a meaningful way. How many times do you find a team that was 4-9 ATS the previous year and -148 AFP to be overpriced in Week 1?
Minnesota (-3) @ Mid-Tenn State 7:30 PM EST ESPNU
Probable suspension of Mid-Tenn QB Dasher has huge impact in this game. Already the betting line has moved over 7 points since the announcement of his likely suspension. He’s the preseason Sun Belt offensive player of the year and was in the Top 10 in the nation in total offense LY. A pair of JC transfers who would make their first appearance are the probable backups. That gives Minnesota QB Weber, behind a veteran offensive line, a huge offensive advantage. Major concern for the Gophers is a defense returning just 2 starters. But there’s a lot less concern for that unit without the host,s most dominant player.
Florida Atlantic @ UAB (-14) 8:00 PM EST
UAB smoked FAU LY by a count of 56-29 with 622 total yards. That’s part of a 4-1 ATS favorite record for HC Callaway. Now, however, UAB is priced 8 points higher than in that matchup. Yet there is a huge difference in QB personnel. Gone is UAB QB Webb who is the heart and soul of their offense. Returning for FAU is QB Van Camp and Vet RB Morris. Problems for the Owls are an inexperienced O line which must replace everyone, against an experienced UAB front 7. And you never know when Howie’s gonna throw in a clunker, witness his 1-14 ATS road record vs. NC foes. Repeat of LY unlikely, but edge to UAB.
Friday, September 3rd
Arizona (-15-) @ Toledo 8:00 PM EST
The Glass Bowl is a tough venue. Technicals support that. The Rockets are 7-1 ATS home vs. non-cons while Arizona is 1-7 away vs. non-cons. That may only partially serve to offset the fundamental advantages that Arizona has in all 3 facets of the game. Still, Toledo should be much improved in the 2nd year under HC Beckman while Arizona looks to make adjustments without DC Stoops. Virgin Toledo QB Dantin will have to live up to his rave reviews if he is to offset the Rockets defensive deficiencies. Slight preference to the home dog in what could turn into a high scoring shoot out.
Saturday, September 4th
Western Michigan @ Michigan State (-23) 12:00 PM ESPN2
LY’s roast saw the Spartan’s destroy the Broncos 49-14 on this field, after leading 35-0 at the half. They outgained them 602-211. But don’t expect complacency on the part of the Spartans who dropped their Bowl game last year to finish under .500. Western is 0-7 ATS MRT vs. major foes and just 7-15 ATS away L3Y. Meanwhile, State has covered 3 straight laying 20 or more. These trends could well continue as Western looks to rebuild their offense behind QB Carder making his first road start. Don’t expect him to take advantage of State’s defensive deficiencies in the secondary. Repeat of last year more probable than not.
Miami (OH) @ Florida (-35) 12:00 EST ESPN
With a 4- line move and nearly 100% of the handicappers and public on the Gators, those stepping in with Miami (OH) will be making the contrary play of the week. Dominant facts favoring the Gators this weekend is Meyer’s record of 17-3 ATS home vs. non-con FBS opponents and the fact that the Red Hawks continue to rebuild (2-10 LY) with 34 freshman and sophomores in their 2 deep. The post – Tebow era will find passing QB Brantley mixing the signal caller duties with some Wildcat packages. Though Florida has just 11 RS, this is a clear case of reloading rather than rebuilding. This result at Meyer’s whim.
Illinois vs. Missouri (-11-) 12:30 PM EST FSN (St. Louis, MO)
It’s not a Rivalry unless one team wins occasionally. Missouri is 5-0 SU, ATS vs. Illinois under Pinkel including a 37-9 victory LY as 6 point dog. See more of the same this time around as QB Gabbert leads 16 returning starters including a defense that returns over 80% of their tackles. The Illini feature QB Scheelhaase making his first road start behind a rebuilt offense that returns less than half of their production.
Colorado (-12) vs. Colorado State 2:00 PM EST MTNT (Denver, CO)
Would appear to be a high pressure game immediately for Colorado HC Hawkins who could seal his fate with a game 1 loss to rival State. Yet, not ready to back that need despite the fact the Buffs have 17 RS including a vet OL. HC Fairchild also on the hot seat as his Rams enter the season at 0-9 SU, 0-6 ATS following an injury plagued 2009 that saw them finish -62 AFP. Anyone who has read my article “Experience Counts in College FB” on this site knows that puts us directly on the side of the Rams in this one. Dog has cashed 14/20 ATS in this rivalry which has seen 7/8 decided by 7 or less points. New State QB Thomas the difference maker.
Northwestern (-5-) @ Vanderbilt 7:30 PM EST
All is not right in Nashville. HC Johnson retired in midsummer replaced by former OL Coach Caldwell. But reports are that the offense has made little improvement over last year’s anemic attack that led to a 2-10 SU mark. Wildcats offense far more advanced at this stage behind QB Persa operating behind an OL that returns intact. Inverted home/road dichotomy seals the deal as NW has covered 8/9 as traveler while Vandy has failed 8 consecutive times at this site.
Memphis @ Mississippi State (-21-) 7:00 PM EST
It’s a new era for Memphis with former HC West being relieved of his duties following a 2-10 SU, 2-9 ATS mark, -67 AFP. New man for the Tigers is HC Porter who has brought more enthusiasm and cohesion to the Tigers. Emotion can go a long way in covering big numbers which is 2 TD’s more than what it would have been at the start of 2009. Miss State not as far along as one might think under 2nd year HC Mullen. Bulldogs just 0-7 ATS HF L5Y. Quality Memphis skill position players behind veteran OL capable of doing no worse than coming through the back door.
Texas (-30-) vs. Rice 3:30 PM EST (Reliant Stadium)
The Horns have hooked ‘em by 41+ the last 4 times these teams have met. Many believe it will be at least that much based on the Rice record of 2-10 SU, 4-7 ATS and -119 AFP of 2009. That was their downer year after their winning season and Bowl Bid of 2008. This year their fortunes are on the rise with 18 RS. Well acknowledged that Reliant is more advantage for Texas than Rice. Also that new Texas QB Gilbert will be given plenty of action to build confidence and work on the Texas ground game. That may actually work in favor of Rice as the Longhorns run some clock. Favor the big dog in this one.
Purdue @ Notre Dame (-11) 3:30 PM EST NBC
QB Marve (Miami (FL) transfer) will help revamp a Purdue offense returning only 5, and well less than half their offensive productivity. Naturally, they would like to do it in a Week 1 rivalry game. This bureau, however, is a Brian Kelly fan. Having now risen to his dream job, I expect no complacency in taking the Irish to heights they have not achieved in over a decade. Kelly’s attention to detail, getting the most out of his players the entire game, and keeping the offensive pedal to the metal the entire game imply a comfortable double digit victory in his maiden voyage. Buy in early, there won’t be much value on the Irish once Kelly starts to cover.
Connecticut @ Michigan (-3) 3:30 PM EST ABC
The litany of technicals continues to accumulate for Conn HC Edsall. Huskies are now 40-22 ATS vs. non-con and 12-2 ATS away MRT, including 7-0 ATS as dog and 6-0 ATS vs. non-con. Michigan’s HC Rod counters with an 0-5 SU, ATS record entering this contest. So how does a 5-7 SU Michigan team become a 3 point favorite against a U. Conn team that was 8-5 SU, 9-2 ATS, +74 AFP and has a veteran coach and quarterback with 16 RS. He knows. And so do you. This is an outstanding spot for the Wolverines to rebound from the nadir of their discontent that was Rich Rod’s first two years. Huskies have suffered some key defensive injury losses in camp. The Michigan Stadium has been extended to 110,000 capacity. Love 3rd year coaches who have had time to implement their systems. Regardless of their starter at QB, like the Wolves to make a statement in their opener.
Kentucky (-3) @ Louisville 3:30 PM EST ABC
This is the debut of new coach Charlie Strong at Louisville (Florida DC L7Y) and Joker Phillips, Kentucky’s coach in waiting. While the Wildcats have the continuity with Phillips and a recent record of 18-1 SU vs. non-cons, it is Louisville that has the value here based on their poor performance in the Kragthorpe years. In L2Y, the Cards were just 8-13 ATS with a -146 AFP and-15 TO’s. New HC Strong brings plenty of experience as a winner. He made solid hires of OC Mike Sanford (UNLV HC) and Vance Bedford (Florida defensive coach). It implies an immediate upturn of fortunes. With over 80% of their offense returning and Strong’s commitment to defensive improvement, look to buy in early as the Cards ATS fortunes soar this season.
New Mexico @ Oregon (-34) 3:30 PM EST
Well aware that Oregon is without QB Masoli and RB James. They are once again deep and talented in the offensive skill position pool. This is a roast! Lobos bring first time QB starter Holbrook and a revamped offensive line with a total of only 11 RS to one of the toughest venues in CFB. Oregon HC Chip Kelly is an offensive master mind who will turn loose his forces in a 40+ point win. He only had one such chance LY but took advantage by outgaining Wash State 514-158 in a 52-6 win as -35. That sounds about right for today’s final.
UCLA @ Kansas State (-1-) 3:30 PM EST ABC
Legitimate Game 1 revenge for the Wildcats who suffered a 23-9 loss in LA as +12 LY. Now, however, Snyder’s men have had a year to assimilate his systems. Snyder is legendary for his September starts particularly on this home field. RB Thomas will do far better than the 54 yards to which he was limited last year. The transition for UCLA is not as easy. They are adapting to the new Pistol offense being installed by HC Neuheisel. But veteran QB Prince has been suffering back problems while the veteran line is undergoing attrition by injury. It all adds up to a workman like K State victory against a UCLA team who is just 3-8 ATS dog MRT.
Syracuse (-8-) @ Akron 6:00 PM EST
This is a relatively simple analysis. Akron is rebuilding under 1st year HC Ianello (former ND assistant). They are undergoing major changes on both sides of the ball. They will be fortunate to surpass the 3-9 SU record of 2009. Syracuse conversely is in the 2nd year under HC Marrone. There is more familiarity with the schemes, better depth, and 15 RS, headlined by a veteran defense. Yet, little adjustments have been made by LM for the above facts.
Washington @ BYU (-3) 7:00 PM EST CBSC
For those who follow returning starter systems, this is one of the best for Week 1. The Huskies return 18 starters and are among the most experienced teams in the land behind NFL-bound QB Locker and an offense that returns virtually intact. They made solid strides in 2009 under then first year coach Sarkisian at 7-5 ATS +47 AFP. This improvement figures to continue this season in his second year. BYU is in a rare rebuilding year as HC Mendenhall has not settled on a starting QB and must replace RB Unga. They return just 12 total starters and less than 50% of both their offense and defense. Is the LM’s 6 point adjustment from last year an accurate assessment of this situation? Must also factor in the altitude edge of BYU which has helped the Cougars go 22-2 SU home MRT while the Huskies were winless on the road under Sarkisian LY.
Washington State @ Oklahoma State (-15-) 7:00 PM EST FSN
I love this type of situation where one team appears so depleted that the line maker is forced to over adjust for their apparent inability to rebuild. Such is the case with Oklahoma State. We all know Wash State has been horrid L2Y including 1-11 SU, but 5-7 ATS and only -27 AFP LY. In short, the linemaker properly adjusted for how bad they were. Though they have clearly improved from recent additions (they were 119th in PF, 118th in PA LY), LM has over adjusted for this improvement. QB Tuel is not the answer. Yes, Ok State is in a major rebuilding mode and HC Gundy has switched from the spread option to the TTRR passing game. Despite just 8 returning starters and well less than 50% of their offense and defense, this bureau’s opinion of the Ok State demise is greatly overrated. Watch 26 year old QB Weeden and RB Hunter (injured LY) pick apart a still suspect Cougar defense.
Southern Miss @ South Carolina (-14) 7:30 PM ESPN
The Gamecocks open on ESPN for the 4th time in Spurrier’s 5 years. Though S. Miss returns 9 on defense, the veteran Carolina offense behind QB Garcia returns over 90% of their yards. But biggest advantage for the Gamecocks will be their active, veteran defense against a rebuilding S. Miss. offensive line. LM has made adjustments for what he believes to be these gaps. This bureau does not believe his adjustments are enough.
Marshall @ Ohio State (-28-) 7:30 PM EST BIG 10 TV
Expect big things from new Marshall HC Holliday, the former assistant at WVU. He is a great recruiter and understands the value of speed. Senior QB Anderson and prolific skill players will add up to CUSA victories and a possible “hang at the number” in this opening week contest. Ohio State is once again the class of the Big 10 and may challenge for national supremacy. However, they are 0-3 ATS in their first lined games against Navy, Ohio U. and Akron L3Y, all with look aheads the following week. Did I mention Miami, FL comes to Columbus next Saturday.
Northern Illinois @ Iowa State (-4-) 8:00 PM EST
Vast diversity in the strength of schedule points out the Big 12 home team vs. the MAC traveler. Though it must be noted that NIU has covered 7 straight away vs. non-cons, they are a veteran group with over 90% of their offense and over 80% of their tackles returning. But they still lack the beef along their interior lines. ISU has experienced senior QB Arnaud, quality receivers, and strong runner in Robinson. In HC Rhoads’ 2nd year, look for both team cohesion and defense to improve. This a must win, knowing the strength of their Big 12 slate, if ISU expects to repeat their winning season of 2009.
Pitt @ Utah (-3) 8:30 PM EST VERSUS
My first instinct about this game is that it would be a tough test for the Panthers playing a game at altitude with a first time starting QB and a retooled offensive line. Utah has won 17 straight home games. Though Wannstedt’s trends, 12-6 ATS away, 9-4 ATS dog L3Y, cooled me a bit, I still believe Utah is the right side. This match up pits a pair of outstanding defenses featuring a Panther DL that led the nation with 47 sacks LY. Utah is far more complex, favoring a myriad of stunts and blitzes. Much is the same for the offenses which will find Pitt relying on the running game behind RB Lewis, while Utah will mix their offense using 3 QB’s to run a passing offense, running offense, and Wildcat package. Can only imagine this causing nightmares for the Panther coaching staff. In a defensive dominated game, favor the diversity of both the Utah offense and defense on their strong home field at altitude.
USC (-21-) @ Hawaii 11:00 PM EST ESPN
Following the off season debacle that has been USC, new HC Kiffin may well be ready to make a statement in this opening game. The largest mismatch will be their defensive front 7 that should totally outmatch the rebuilding offensive line of Hawaii. The public has pushed this line over 3 TD’s making it tough to back the favorite in a meaningful way. How many times do you find a team that was 4-9 ATS the previous year and -148 AFP to be overpriced in Week 1?
Minnesota (-3) @ Mid-Tenn State 7:30 PM EST ESPNU
Probable suspension of Mid-Tenn QB Dasher has huge impact in this game. Already the betting line has moved over 7 points since the announcement of his likely suspension. He’s the preseason Sun Belt offensive player of the year and was in the Top 10 in the nation in total offense LY. A pair of JC transfers who would make their first appearance are the probable backups. That gives Minnesota QB Weber, behind a veteran offensive line, a huge offensive advantage. Major concern for the Gophers is a defense returning just 2 starters. But there’s a lot less concern for that unit without the host,s most dominant player.
Florida Atlantic @ UAB (-14) 8:00 PM EST
UAB smoked FAU LY by a count of 56-29 with 622 total yards. That’s part of a 4-1 ATS favorite record for HC Callaway. Now, however, UAB is priced 8 points higher than in that matchup. Yet there is a huge difference in QB personnel. Gone is UAB QB Webb who is the heart and soul of their offense. Returning for FAU is QB Van Camp and Vet RB Morris. Problems for the Owls are an inexperienced O line which must replace everyone, against an experienced UAB front 7. And you never know when Howie’s gonna throw in a clunker, witness his 1-14 ATS road record vs. NC foes. Repeat of LY unlikely, but edge to UAB.
Friday, September 3rd
Arizona (-15-) @ Toledo 8:00 PM EST
The Glass Bowl is a tough venue. Technicals support that. The Rockets are 7-1 ATS home vs. non-cons while Arizona is 1-7 away vs. non-cons. That may only partially serve to offset the fundamental advantages that Arizona has in all 3 facets of the game. Still, Toledo should be much improved in the 2nd year under HC Beckman while Arizona looks to make adjustments without DC Stoops. Virgin Toledo QB Dantin will have to live up to his rave reviews if he is to offset the Rockets defensive deficiencies. Slight preference to the home dog in what could turn into a high scoring shoot out.
Saturday, September 4th
Western Michigan @ Michigan State (-23) 12:00 PM ESPN2
LY’s roast saw the Spartan’s destroy the Broncos 49-14 on this field, after leading 35-0 at the half. They outgained them 602-211. But don’t expect complacency on the part of the Spartans who dropped their Bowl game last year to finish under .500. Western is 0-7 ATS MRT vs. major foes and just 7-15 ATS away L3Y. Meanwhile, State has covered 3 straight laying 20 or more. These trends could well continue as Western looks to rebuild their offense behind QB Carder making his first road start. Don’t expect him to take advantage of State’s defensive deficiencies in the secondary. Repeat of last year more probable than not.
Miami (OH) @ Florida (-35) 12:00 EST ESPN
With a 4- line move and nearly 100% of the handicappers and public on the Gators, those stepping in with Miami (OH) will be making the contrary play of the week. Dominant facts favoring the Gators this weekend is Meyer’s record of 17-3 ATS home vs. non-con FBS opponents and the fact that the Red Hawks continue to rebuild (2-10 LY) with 34 freshman and sophomores in their 2 deep. The post – Tebow era will find passing QB Brantley mixing the signal caller duties with some Wildcat packages. Though Florida has just 11 RS, this is a clear case of reloading rather than rebuilding. This result at Meyer’s whim.
Illinois vs. Missouri (-11-) 12:30 PM EST FSN (St. Louis, MO)
It’s not a Rivalry unless one team wins occasionally. Missouri is 5-0 SU, ATS vs. Illinois under Pinkel including a 37-9 victory LY as 6 point dog. See more of the same this time around as QB Gabbert leads 16 returning starters including a defense that returns over 80% of their tackles. The Illini feature QB Scheelhaase making his first road start behind a rebuilt offense that returns less than half of their production.
Colorado (-12) vs. Colorado State 2:00 PM EST MTNT (Denver, CO)
Would appear to be a high pressure game immediately for Colorado HC Hawkins who could seal his fate with a game 1 loss to rival State. Yet, not ready to back that need despite the fact the Buffs have 17 RS including a vet OL. HC Fairchild also on the hot seat as his Rams enter the season at 0-9 SU, 0-6 ATS following an injury plagued 2009 that saw them finish -62 AFP. Anyone who has read my article “Experience Counts in College FB” on this site knows that puts us directly on the side of the Rams in this one. Dog has cashed 14/20 ATS in this rivalry which has seen 7/8 decided by 7 or less points. New State QB Thomas the difference maker.
Northwestern (-5-) @ Vanderbilt 7:30 PM EST
All is not right in Nashville. HC Johnson retired in midsummer replaced by former OL Coach Caldwell. But reports are that the offense has made little improvement over last year’s anemic attack that led to a 2-10 SU mark. Wildcats offense far more advanced at this stage behind QB Persa operating behind an OL that returns intact. Inverted home/road dichotomy seals the deal as NW has covered 8/9 as traveler while Vandy has failed 8 consecutive times at this site.
Memphis @ Mississippi State (-21-) 7:00 PM EST
It’s a new era for Memphis with former HC West being relieved of his duties following a 2-10 SU, 2-9 ATS mark, -67 AFP. New man for the Tigers is HC Porter who has brought more enthusiasm and cohesion to the Tigers. Emotion can go a long way in covering big numbers which is 2 TD’s more than what it would have been at the start of 2009. Miss State not as far along as one might think under 2nd year HC Mullen. Bulldogs just 0-7 ATS HF L5Y. Quality Memphis skill position players behind veteran OL capable of doing no worse than coming through the back door.
Texas (-30-) vs. Rice 3:30 PM EST (Reliant Stadium)
The Horns have hooked ‘em by 41+ the last 4 times these teams have met. Many believe it will be at least that much based on the Rice record of 2-10 SU, 4-7 ATS and -119 AFP of 2009. That was their downer year after their winning season and Bowl Bid of 2008. This year their fortunes are on the rise with 18 RS. Well acknowledged that Reliant is more advantage for Texas than Rice. Also that new Texas QB Gilbert will be given plenty of action to build confidence and work on the Texas ground game. That may actually work in favor of Rice as the Longhorns run some clock. Favor the big dog in this one.
Purdue @ Notre Dame (-11) 3:30 PM EST NBC
QB Marve (Miami (FL) transfer) will help revamp a Purdue offense returning only 5, and well less than half their offensive productivity. Naturally, they would like to do it in a Week 1 rivalry game. This bureau, however, is a Brian Kelly fan. Having now risen to his dream job, I expect no complacency in taking the Irish to heights they have not achieved in over a decade. Kelly’s attention to detail, getting the most out of his players the entire game, and keeping the offensive pedal to the metal the entire game imply a comfortable double digit victory in his maiden voyage. Buy in early, there won’t be much value on the Irish once Kelly starts to cover.
Connecticut @ Michigan (-3) 3:30 PM EST ABC
The litany of technicals continues to accumulate for Conn HC Edsall. Huskies are now 40-22 ATS vs. non-con and 12-2 ATS away MRT, including 7-0 ATS as dog and 6-0 ATS vs. non-con. Michigan’s HC Rod counters with an 0-5 SU, ATS record entering this contest. So how does a 5-7 SU Michigan team become a 3 point favorite against a U. Conn team that was 8-5 SU, 9-2 ATS, +74 AFP and has a veteran coach and quarterback with 16 RS. He knows. And so do you. This is an outstanding spot for the Wolverines to rebound from the nadir of their discontent that was Rich Rod’s first two years. Huskies have suffered some key defensive injury losses in camp. The Michigan Stadium has been extended to 110,000 capacity. Love 3rd year coaches who have had time to implement their systems. Regardless of their starter at QB, like the Wolves to make a statement in their opener.
Kentucky (-3) @ Louisville 3:30 PM EST ABC
This is the debut of new coach Charlie Strong at Louisville (Florida DC L7Y) and Joker Phillips, Kentucky’s coach in waiting. While the Wildcats have the continuity with Phillips and a recent record of 18-1 SU vs. non-cons, it is Louisville that has the value here based on their poor performance in the Kragthorpe years. In L2Y, the Cards were just 8-13 ATS with a -146 AFP and-15 TO’s. New HC Strong brings plenty of experience as a winner. He made solid hires of OC Mike Sanford (UNLV HC) and Vance Bedford (Florida defensive coach). It implies an immediate upturn of fortunes. With over 80% of their offense returning and Strong’s commitment to defensive improvement, look to buy in early as the Cards ATS fortunes soar this season.
New Mexico @ Oregon (-34) 3:30 PM EST
Well aware that Oregon is without QB Masoli and RB James. They are once again deep and talented in the offensive skill position pool. This is a roast! Lobos bring first time QB starter Holbrook and a revamped offensive line with a total of only 11 RS to one of the toughest venues in CFB. Oregon HC Chip Kelly is an offensive master mind who will turn loose his forces in a 40+ point win. He only had one such chance LY but took advantage by outgaining Wash State 514-158 in a 52-6 win as -35. That sounds about right for today’s final.
UCLA @ Kansas State (-1-) 3:30 PM EST ABC
Legitimate Game 1 revenge for the Wildcats who suffered a 23-9 loss in LA as +12 LY. Now, however, Snyder’s men have had a year to assimilate his systems. Snyder is legendary for his September starts particularly on this home field. RB Thomas will do far better than the 54 yards to which he was limited last year. The transition for UCLA is not as easy. They are adapting to the new Pistol offense being installed by HC Neuheisel. But veteran QB Prince has been suffering back problems while the veteran line is undergoing attrition by injury. It all adds up to a workman like K State victory against a UCLA team who is just 3-8 ATS dog MRT.
Syracuse (-8-) @ Akron 6:00 PM EST
This is a relatively simple analysis. Akron is rebuilding under 1st year HC Ianello (former ND assistant). They are undergoing major changes on both sides of the ball. They will be fortunate to surpass the 3-9 SU record of 2009. Syracuse conversely is in the 2nd year under HC Marrone. There is more familiarity with the schemes, better depth, and 15 RS, headlined by a veteran defense. Yet, little adjustments have been made by LM for the above facts.
Washington @ BYU (-3) 7:00 PM EST CBSC
For those who follow returning starter systems, this is one of the best for Week 1. The Huskies return 18 starters and are among the most experienced teams in the land behind NFL-bound QB Locker and an offense that returns virtually intact. They made solid strides in 2009 under then first year coach Sarkisian at 7-5 ATS +47 AFP. This improvement figures to continue this season in his second year. BYU is in a rare rebuilding year as HC Mendenhall has not settled on a starting QB and must replace RB Unga. They return just 12 total starters and less than 50% of both their offense and defense. Is the LM’s 6 point adjustment from last year an accurate assessment of this situation? Must also factor in the altitude edge of BYU which has helped the Cougars go 22-2 SU home MRT while the Huskies were winless on the road under Sarkisian LY.
Washington State @ Oklahoma State (-15-) 7:00 PM EST FSN
I love this type of situation where one team appears so depleted that the line maker is forced to over adjust for their apparent inability to rebuild. Such is the case with Oklahoma State. We all know Wash State has been horrid L2Y including 1-11 SU, but 5-7 ATS and only -27 AFP LY. In short, the linemaker properly adjusted for how bad they were. Though they have clearly improved from recent additions (they were 119th in PF, 118th in PA LY), LM has over adjusted for this improvement. QB Tuel is not the answer. Yes, Ok State is in a major rebuilding mode and HC Gundy has switched from the spread option to the TTRR passing game. Despite just 8 returning starters and well less than 50% of their offense and defense, this bureau’s opinion of the Ok State demise is greatly overrated. Watch 26 year old QB Weeden and RB Hunter (injured LY) pick apart a still suspect Cougar defense.