Some Thursday College Thoughts
We're officially under the 24 hour period before the season starts. Here are my quick thoughts about many of the opening night games.
So. Miss/S Car: Both teams have holes to fill, but S Car is from a power conference. I wouldn't worry too much about S Miss on offense this year, as the scheme is good. Game one is tougher. The line is accurate, but So. Miss has historically covered at this spread.
NI/Iowa St: Jerry Kill is slowly building a sound program but while he may get a win (or 2) vs. the Big 10 in '10 I like Paul Rhodes as a coach and this line is too tight.
Pitt/Utah: When they last played Utah and Urban Meyer won handily in the 1st BCS game for a non-BCS Big 6 conference. Utah was down 14-0 to Cal in the bowl last year and did not panic. Utah is not quite as good right now as in '09 (in my opinion) but the program is in good hands as it moves toward the Pac 10. Pitt will try to run pound and play D here. They can pull off the mild upset with just that formula.
USC/Hawaii: Two schools of thought here. 1st, a positive for USC is that unstable Kiffin will not be afraid to run up the score to make him look good. Clearly the better athletes are on his side. The negative for USC is the feeling that they have barely thought about Hawaii, and are somewhat distracted by their own injuries, issues, etc. that they may not be fully prepared for the trip and the game planning. If Lane gets the shot yes, he will run it up, but I'm taking the approach (and the 21.5) that USC will not fire out of the box.
Minn/MTSU: I've thought about this one, and finally took +3 for a flyer. Dasher is a huge loss, but this is still an average at best Minnesota team with an all new defense and playing on the road. One offshore book has Minny's win total at 5. To me that means this game can be a loss.
FAU/UAB: A bigger QB loss (as opposed to Dasher) is all everthing QB Joe Webb. UAB is completely unproven at this # (15). FAU is certainly not anything special, but Rusty Smith was not all that accurate so his loss is not as important. The line represents a bit of value as well.
Real football starts in 22 hours! Amazing!
So. Miss/S Car: Both teams have holes to fill, but S Car is from a power conference. I wouldn't worry too much about S Miss on offense this year, as the scheme is good. Game one is tougher. The line is accurate, but So. Miss has historically covered at this spread.
NI/Iowa St: Jerry Kill is slowly building a sound program but while he may get a win (or 2) vs. the Big 10 in '10 I like Paul Rhodes as a coach and this line is too tight.
Pitt/Utah: When they last played Utah and Urban Meyer won handily in the 1st BCS game for a non-BCS Big 6 conference. Utah was down 14-0 to Cal in the bowl last year and did not panic. Utah is not quite as good right now as in '09 (in my opinion) but the program is in good hands as it moves toward the Pac 10. Pitt will try to run pound and play D here. They can pull off the mild upset with just that formula.
USC/Hawaii: Two schools of thought here. 1st, a positive for USC is that unstable Kiffin will not be afraid to run up the score to make him look good. Clearly the better athletes are on his side. The negative for USC is the feeling that they have barely thought about Hawaii, and are somewhat distracted by their own injuries, issues, etc. that they may not be fully prepared for the trip and the game planning. If Lane gets the shot yes, he will run it up, but I'm taking the approach (and the 21.5) that USC will not fire out of the box.
Minn/MTSU: I've thought about this one, and finally took +3 for a flyer. Dasher is a huge loss, but this is still an average at best Minnesota team with an all new defense and playing on the road. One offshore book has Minny's win total at 5. To me that means this game can be a loss.
FAU/UAB: A bigger QB loss (as opposed to Dasher) is all everthing QB Joe Webb. UAB is completely unproven at this # (15). FAU is certainly not anything special, but Rusty Smith was not all that accurate so his loss is not as important. The line represents a bit of value as well.
Real football starts in 22 hours! Amazing!