Systems or Research? Which do you use when capping?

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  • ackem19
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 10-07-09
    • 669

    #1
    Systems or Research? Which do you use when capping?
    After browsing through several forums and participating on this one, I've noticed a lot of cappers talking about their systems or math models being the reason for their picks. I was just curious how many of you use systems when capping as opposed to just analyzing the matchup (ie, coaching, injuries, trends, home/away, tendencies, etc.). Please give your vote for what you use for COLLEGE FOOTBALL ONLY. I personally just analyze the matchups but for NBA, I use systems. What about you guys?
    17
    Systems/Math Models
    0%
    0
    Research/Matchup Analysis
    0%
    12
    A Combination of the Two
    0%
    4
    Random Selections
    0%
    1
  • the shadow
    SBR High Roller
    • 07-02-09
    • 120

    #2
    I think just plain simple handicapping works the best. No, i'm not going to bet a game because they are 17-0 on sunday when the temperature is between 60 and 70 degrees. So my answer is : analyze the matchup!!!
    Comment
    • THE PROFIT
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-27-09
      • 17701

      #3
      I use both. Systems are better in the NFL as they are more predictable, some teams just own certain situations
      Comment
      • nj1035
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 11-19-09
        • 902

        #4
        I just watch the games and make an educated guess, but then again I'm not a pro....it's just for fun.

        However, one thing I can say in general is that I tend to be on teams that underperformed or overperformed significantly the week before. That is to say, if the Saints are 11-0 and lose in the 12th week, I'll probably take them the next week, just because I think people tend to overreact over 1 game rather than looking at the entire season. And I think that affects certain lines.
        Comment
        • laxdjock
          SBR MVP
          • 09-15-07
          • 4074

          #5
          I've built some stats models, though I used limited data sets for various NFL players. I did quite well on my prop bets, as most of my models had to do with O/U passing, throwing, and receiving yardage. I'm not sure they'd translate to NCAA football, but I'm going to gather some data and see.
          Comment
          • daprospecta
            SBR Sharp
            • 01-15-10
            • 473

            #6
            I would say both. If you analysis the game and the system is agreeing with you then that's all the better. I would lean more towards analytical than anything though.
            Comment
            • kiknit
              SBR High Roller
              • 12-20-09
              • 116

              #7
              Speaking of...I was going back through some old posts and found the references to the Sagarin Ratings - obviously there is no "Predictor" for Week 1 -but is anyone still using this system?
              Comment
              • the shadow
                SBR High Roller
                • 07-02-09
                • 120

                #8
                Yes, there is a predictor for week 1. He basically uses last years stats. Found most of the lines close to sagarin, but there were a couple way off the mark. Col. favored over CSU by 3 for instance.
                Comment
                • the shadow
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 07-02-09
                  • 120

                  #9
                  Correction, Colorado by 1.
                  Comment
                  • kiknit
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 12-20-09
                    • 116

                    #10
                    Hey Shadow - I went back to the ratings for this week and youre right, a lot of the spreads were pretty close. But some are waaay off, like the UAB vs Florida Atlantic (a game I was already watching). Difference between the two is 0.85 in favor of UAB but the spread is 15. I think Im gonna toss those ratings into a sheet and keep track of the spreads and results for a couple weeks to see if the "Sagarin SOS System" still has something to it.
                    Comment
                    • HustleGetPaid
                      SBR MVP
                      • 10-28-09
                      • 1199

                      #11
                      Research and analyze the given matchup...
                      Comment
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