Introduction and Week 1 Plays

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  • justkeepwinning
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 08-30-10
    • 933

    #1
    Introduction and Week 1 Plays
    New here to the forum and ready to get started. I like to limit myself to about 3 bets per weekend. I play $50 per unit and usually go from a 1-4 unit scale. Lets have a great season and take it to the man.

    Week 1 games that stand out to me so far:
    Pitt +3
    USC -21 (liked it a lot more when it opened at -18.5)
    Memphis vs. Mississippi State under 53 - where are these points going to come from?
    Georgia -28
    Virginia Tech +2.5 - Boise traveling across the country to play against the Hokies who if they lose are out of the picture for talks of National Championship

    I could see myself limiting this to the under and play it for 4 units as I really don't see points in this game. Memphis starting running back quit just the other day, and Mississippi State's starting quarterback, Relf, has been not participating in activities the last few days and the head coach is being very careful in what he says is wrong with him.
  • Las Vegas Tom
    SBR Rookie
    • 08-30-10
    • 36

    #2
    I like Va Tech. Good luck.
    Comment
    • justkeepwinning
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 08-30-10
      • 933

      #3
      Las Vegas Tom - only three more days until it all starts. The Va Tech game is a scary one though with Boise getting all summer to prepare for their one real test all year
      Comment
      • NBAwinner
        SBR High Roller
        • 03-20-10
        • 249

        #4
        good luck bro
        Comment
        • justkeepwinning
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 08-30-10
          • 933

          #5
          NBA -

          So the Virginia Tech line has moved to +2, hopefully that goes back up and maybe even hit +3 or +3.5. The major movement I have seen so far is Memphis moving to +21.5. I know Mississippi State is supposed to be better than last year and everyone is saying how Memphis will be even worse but a three touchdown win is not something common for the Bulldogs the last few seasons and especially in the first game for a new head coach at Memphis. Fun week to watch the lines and lay the bets.
          Comment
          • corymsu
            Restricted User
            • 10-30-09
            • 279

            #6
            As you can see by the name I went to MSU and I am not sure about this QB situation. I think we are way better than Memphis but the only way I play this game is MSU -14 and Under 60 in 2 team teaser. I dont like either side of it straight up!
            Comment
            • justkeepwinning
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 08-30-10
              • 933

              #7
              cory - yea I can't get a good read on what is going on down in Starkville. Do you have any information to pass along?

              Thursday Leans
              Southern Mississippi +14

              Southern comes into this game with a point that they along with CUSA shouldn't be considered a cupcake win. DeAndre Brown could be one of the best receivers in the draft this upcoming year and he is a playmaker. The Golden Eagles lost a 1000 yard back from last year so they will need Brown to really step up in this game.

              South Carolina's defense was incredible last year, however, they lost a few starters from last year. The Gamecocks are known for not starting the season well. Their opening games are usually low scoring and close. Spurrier has already stated that Garcia is not guaranteed the starting role all year so there isn't much confidence there. This along with the possibility of some players being out tonight has me leaning Southern Miss. +14 for now.


              MTSU vs. Minnesota under 49

              Dasher is out for MTSU which is a blow for them for sure as he was the leading rusher, passer, and scorer for them last year. Behind Dasher there is not much experience. Minnesota had an anemic offense last season and even though they should be improved this year I don't know if these two schools can score 49 points in the first game.


              Pittsburgh +3

              The Panthers lose their quarterback from last year, but they do return Dion Lewis who is the leading rusher returning in the NCAA. He will have to be a work horse tonight to calm the new quarterback nerves in the hostile environment of Utah who hasn't lost in nearly 3 years. Pittsburgh led the nation last year in sacks and bring back both defensive ends from last year's squad which should cause some problems for the passing part of the Utes offense.

              Utah is bringing back their 1000 yard rusher from last year as well but the Panthers are bringing back more on defense than Utah so I feel comfortable that they will be able to contain Wide. When Utah tries to pass they have to go up against the rush defense of Pittsburgh which will not be an easy task. This should be a win for Pittsburgh and I like the 3 points.


              USC -21

              The Trojans are playing this year without a chance to even play in the postseason which could give them motivation to really take it to some teams. The last time these two teams played the Trojans won 63-17 and I don't think it will be this lopsided but it should defiantly be a cover.

              Hawaii has a potent offense and bringing back their quarterback who is very familiar with the system they run on the island. This could be a high scoring game and I might take some of the bet on the over 53.


              Be back later to finalize the plays. Good luck on opening weekend.
              Comment
              • justkeepwinning
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 08-30-10
                • 933

                #8
                Plays:
                Minnesota vs. Middle Tennessee State under 51 (1x)
                Pittsburgh +3.5 (1x)
                USC -20 (1x)

                Good luck. Hoping to start 3-0
                Comment
                • justkeepwinning
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 08-30-10
                  • 933

                  #9
                  Good start 2-1 +0.9 units

                  Friday Night Play
                  Toledo vs. Arizona under 58 (1x)

                  Good luck tonight
                  Comment
                  • jorge1
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-06-10
                    • 3520

                    #10
                    I like your style bro...

                    In mlb been playing 1 or 2 a day, and am 13-3 the last two weeks...

                    Planning on doing same thing on Football...1 thrusday, 1 friday, 2 saturday, maybe 1 sunday, maybe 1 monday...or so

                    BOL will look out for your plays in the future
                    Comment
                    • justkeepwinning
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 08-30-10
                      • 933

                      #11
                      jorge1 - good to hear you are killing it in mlb ... I have to limit my plays and not just play for action that kills the bankroll


                      Good result last night making the record 3-1 +1.9 units

                      Today there will be football all day long, the best kind of days. Looking over the card right now will be back soon with some plays hopefully.
                      Comment
                      • hankcream
                        SBR MVP
                        • 06-30-10
                        • 2048

                        #12
                        Good luck today, nice call buying the hook with Pitt.
                        Comment
                        • justkeepwinning
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 08-30-10
                          • 933

                          #13
                          hankcream - thanks man luckily I was able to grab it at +3.5 right before gametime and didn't even have to buy it


                          Locked in:
                          Texas -31 (1x)

                          Lots of points in Gilbert's first game but Rice is not good.


                          Leans:
                          Memphis +20.5 (wish i had +21)
                          Might make the play on Memphis over 15.5 total points
                          North Carolina (+9,5 hoping the line keeps rising come on ESPN)

                          Keeping it the card slim not seeing much out there and not forcing bets.

                          Good luck in your plays.
                          Comment
                          • justkeepwinning
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 08-30-10
                            • 933

                            #14
                            Added another play:
                            Memphis +21 -120 (1x)

                            I like this line just wanted to make sure I had 3 full touchdowns.

                            Also the added games were just released on my site and I lean on Ole Miss -28.5.

                            Good luck
                            Comment
                            • justkeepwinning
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 08-30-10
                              • 933

                              #15
                              Well bummer of a day looking at the Wisconsin halftime line.

                              0-2 -2.3 so far today
                              Comment
                              • justkeepwinning
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 08-30-10
                                • 933

                                #16
                                Okay everyone is jumping on Wisconsin I will go against the grain.

                                UNLV +11.5 (1x)

                                Good luck
                                Comment
                                • justkeepwinning
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 08-30-10
                                  • 933

                                  #17
                                  Whew started the week off good but yesterday my plays and leans were just off plain and simple. Yesterday sucked as I went 0-3 and I was able to see Jacksonville St knock off my beloved Ole Miss Rebels. Let me just say I don't know how the Rebels secondary played as bad as they did in the second half but that's besides the point time to start winning bets.

                                  3-4 -1.5 units

                                  Sunday Plays:
                                  ECU +7 (1x)
                                  Texas Tech -13.5 (1x)

                                  Backing both new coaches today and I feel like both should be able to help their team cover the number.

                                  Good luck today
                                  Comment
                                  • justkeepwinning
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 08-30-10
                                    • 933

                                    #18
                                    Terrible last quarter for Texas Tech yesterday giving me a 1-1 day losing the juice.

                                    4-5 -1.6 units

                                    On to the Monday games.

                                    Plays:
                                    Navy -6 (1x)
                                    The running game should give Maryland's defense headaches all day and Navy should be able to control the clock plus the game and cruise to a victory this afternoon.

                                    Leans:
                                    Boise with the points and maybe even straight up. Earlier this week I like the Hokies, but the more I think about it and look into the game the more I like the Broncos. They always play up and at a higher level for these type games and they have about 5 years of work on this game. This could be a bigger than usual play for me tonight just have to keep looking at this time.
                                    Comment
                                    • justkeepwinning
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 08-30-10
                                      • 933

                                      #19
                                      Well Navy was the right side frustrating game so far we will see how the end goes but I am about to head to the bar so putting this in before I leave.

                                      Boise State to win +105 (2x)

                                      Boise has been trying to be in this position for years. Finally if they win out they will play in the national championship. It all starts tonight and there is no way I can not back them in this spot.
                                      Comment
                                      • justkeepwinning
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 08-30-10
                                        • 933

                                        #20
                                        1-1 on Monday netting 1 unit

                                        Week 1: 5-6 for a loss of 0.6 units.

                                        Not a bad weekend should have been better but it looks like I played too many games. I know the 2nd half play I did on Saturday night was out of frustration for going 0-2 during the day and watching Ole Miss lose to a FCS team. Have to stay disciplined and only bet the games I really like. Glad Boise hit as that was my big play of the week. Week 2 Plays are in their own thread.
                                        Comment
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