MartinBlank's 2010 CF Picks

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • MartinBlank
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-20-08
    • 8382

    #1
    MartinBlank's 2010 CF Picks
    Hey Guys-----here we go. One week until College Football begins. Is there a better time of the year for sports fans?

    Last year I blogged my selections, and continued to do so throughout a very successful college hoops season.

    This year I am going to place my selections into this thread to document my record.

    I wish you guys all the best, and hope you crush your respective books.

    I try to follow a simple money management plan for College Football. I begin the season with 3K, spread equally over three books.

    I am going to play 5 games per week, never risking more than 125 per contest, and never less than 55.

    I will keep track of my weekly record, overall record, and net/loss for the season.

    Feel free to hammer away, debate, make fun of----whatever you wish. I am not THAT insecure that I can't take an internet beating from time/time.

    Again, best of luck to all of you.
  • wal66
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-14-08
    • 5305

    #2
    Glad to see you participating like this Martin. You've always been added to the discusions and now you'll be adding to the consensus.

    Goodluck and have a profitable season.
    Comment
    • sweethook
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-21-07
      • 12667

      #3
      you sound like a great guy and i feel you'l have good info. il be watching and sure hope you do well gl.
      Comment
      • MartinBlank
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 07-20-08
        • 8382

        #4
        Okay guys. Here goes.

        Week 1. Five selections.

        #1. Utah (-2.5) over Pittsburgh (Bookmaker). Risking 110 to win 100.

        I love this matchup. Utah enters the game having won 47 of the 64 games Kyle Whittingham has coached at Utah. Perhaps more impressive is Willingham's 5-0 bowl record.

        Utah returns 12 starters, 8 on offense but only 4 on defense. They have produced more NFL players in the past 4 years than any other non-BCS school.

        Pitt returns 11 players, 5 on offense and 6 on defense. Dave Wannstedt has yet to break through in the Big East, but he has recruited exceptionally well the past few seasons.

        I like Utah for a few reasons. I believe the talent level is about even, but I think Utah holds a dramatic edge in coaching. Whittingham is just a much better coach than Wannstedt, and Pitt has been wildly inconsistent during Wanny's time. The Panthers always seem to stumble in September under Wannstedt. During his time at Pitt, the Panthers have lost to Ohio, Connecticut, Virginia, Navy, Bowling Green, and NC State early in the season. They simply don't start well.

        Secondly. Pitt's QB position is very questionable at best. Sunseri gets the start, he is a true soph making his first start on the road against a very good Utah team. The Panthers do have Dion Lewis in the backfield, and we all know what kind of talent he is. The Panthers also have Jon Baldwin, but we are talking about a QB here who has attempted a grand total of 17 passes. Add in the element of it being a night game on national tv, and it doesn't look good for Pitt. Pitt returns an OL with only 42 career starts among them, that ranks 98th in the country.

        The topper for me is Utah's QB. Jordan Wynn. Wynn has proven he can run Utah's spread as good as anyone. Last year he started 6 games, and the Utes averaged more than 34 ppg with him running the ship. Wynn dominated Cal in last year's Poinsettia Bowl, throwing for 338 yards, completing 72% of his throws, including 3 tds.

        Utes have large advantages at 2 very important spots---QB play and coaching. Throw in home-field, and I love Utah -2.5
        Comment
        • MartinBlank
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 07-20-08
          • 8382

          #5
          #2. Iowa State (-3) over Northern Illinois (Bookmaker). Risking 110 to win 100.

          Ahh, the Cyclones. Not only did they return to Bowl play last season, but they went and beat Minnesota in the Insight Bowl. Nice job by Paul Rhoads, who also managed a few nice wins in his inaugral season. The Cyclones beat Nebraska on the road, lost close games to Kansas State and Kansas, and managed to beat Colorado for the 3rd time in 5 years.

          The Cyclones return 8 starters on offense, including athletic Austen Arnaud. Arnaud threw for more than 2K yards last season, and also ran for more than 600. Returning right next to him is Alexander Robinson----who rushed for an eye popping 1232 yards in a conference that featured some pretty tough run defenses.

          Northern Illinois is no slouch. They are a legit threat to win the MAC. They return 15 starters from a team that went 7-6 and lost in the International Bowl to USF. NIU is talented, but I don't think they are big enough up front on defense to beat the Cyclones. I think NIU has enough talent to beat everyone in the MAC, but not when they move into the bottom of the Big 12.

          Okay, why Iowa State then?

          The Cyclones are clearly the better defensive team. They didn't allow more than 24 points the last 7 games of their season in 2009, and while they return only 4 starters on that side of the ball---2 of those are up front.

          Perhaps more important to Iowa State' chances are what returns on the offensive side of the ball. The Cyclones return 89 starts on offense. That number places them among the top 5% of all NCAA teams, and should bode well for Arnaud and Robinson.

          Iowa State will be able to run the football and Arnaud will give NIU enough trouble to be able to beat the Huskies.

          Iowa State also gets a nod for being at home, and I think that carries some weight in this decision. ISU gets the W.
          Last edited by MartinBlank; 08-30-10, 11:08 AM.
          Comment
          • MartinBlank
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 07-20-08
            • 8382

            #6
            #3. Notre Dame (-11.5) over Purdue (Bookmaker). Risking 110 to win 100.

            Brian Kelly arrives in South Bend. Savior for the program or continuation of misery since Lou Holtz left 14 years ago? Well, I know this much. Brian Kelly can coach football. He has won at every single level he has coached at. He has won D2 championships (like Jim Tressel), he has taken CMU to bowl games, and perhaps his best coaching was taking a program in Cincinnati and winning multiple Big East championships.

            Kelly inherits a team that has significantly more talent than any place he has been, and with Kelly's ability to develop QBs he shouldn't have any problems working with a kid like Dayne Crist. Kelly told the media this year that the most difficult part of his job has been changing the "culture" at ND. But it looks like his team has bought into it. They are saying the right things, and excitement is back under the Dome in South Bend.

            Danny Hope did a pretty good job last year at Purdue. He took over for Joe Tiller who rebuilt the Purdue program. Hope guided the Boilermakers to an impressive win over Ohio State, a big comeback against Michigan, and he lost some heartbreakers along the way to Oregon and Notre Dame.

            Purdue has been decimated by injuries entering the 2010 season. Leading rusher, Ralph Bolden went down with a knee injury in the spring, and the secondary is brand new. Purdue has just 10 starters returning this year, and they are introducing one-time Miami, FL Qb Robert Marve as their new starter.

            ND has significant advantages in this game. They are playing with a decided coaching advantage in Kelly versus Hope, they have more depth, and ND's move to the 3-4 with Bob Diaco as their new DC should bring about a much better defense in 2010. Long gone are the infighting that hung around the Charlie Weis' coaching staff, and Kelly offers a much more direct approach to his team and his coaching staff.

            The Irish also have better skill position players. Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph are both on just about everyone's pre-season All-American list, adding to the depth is 5-star recruits in Tai-ler Jones, Cierre Wood, and Theo Riddick. On the other side of the ball, analysts are raving about 2009's #1 rated LB prospect Manti Te'o. Te'o is a much more natural fit in the 3-4 and he alone improves ND dramatically.

            Purdue isn't without speed and talent of their own, they just don't heve enough of it.

            I suspect if Kelly gets up on Purdue---and I believe he will----he will not let up the throttle. He will want to make an impression, and look for ND to win this game big.
            Comment
            • MartinBlank
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 07-20-08
              • 8382

              #7
              #4. Connecticut (+3) over Michigan (BetJame). Risking 110 to win 100.

              This figures to be a very interesting game. Michigan has more decades of playing major college football than UConn has years in Division 1-A football.

              Randy Edsall can coach. He is 62-58 at Connecticut, with a 3-1 bowl record. Last year his Huskies finished the year 8-5, but those 5 losses were by a total of 15 points. He lost heartbreaking games to WVU, Pitt, Rutgers, and UNC. His loss to Cincinnati was a perfect example of how his teams play. They kept fighting back all game long, losing by 2 to the eventual BE Champs.

              This may be Edsall's best team year. He has 15 starters returning, 8 on offense and 7 on defense. How do the Huskies do it? Running the football and playing tough defense. They have a very favorable schedule.....with their toughest game being on December 4th on the road at South Florida. All their biggies---Pitt, WVU, Cincinnati--are all at home, and they may be on the verge of a serious 10-2, 9-3 run. There are some national guys who have projected even better seasons for the Huskies.

              On the offensive side of the ball, ND transfer, Zach Frazer is Edsall's QB for the second straight year. Frazer will not wow anyone, in fact, he isn't among the top 6 QBs in the BE. However, he manages the game well for Edsall, and UConn's recipe begins and ends with their ability to run the football. Returning is 1200 yard rusher, Jordan Todman. Todman is a workhorse, and in a conference with Noel Devine at WVU, and Dion Lewis at Pitt, Todman is every bit the back as those two.

              Defensively, the Huskies lost a huge talent in Greg Lloyd to a knee injury in camp, but they still return 7 starters. Among those 7 are guys like Lawrence Wilson, Twyon Martin, and Scott Lutrus.

              Now, onto the Wolverines. I am firmly in the camp that this was among the worst coaching hires by any major program in the last 30 years. This rivals ND's hiring of Tyrone Willingham, Alabama's hiring of Mike Debose, and USC hiring Lane Kiffin. It was a mistake because of what was required of the program to fit into Rodriguez's style of play. The year before Michigan hiring Rodriguez, they beat Florida on NY Day in the Capital One Bowl. The Wolverines were a pro-set team---recruited by Lloyd Carr to be a pro-set team. Rodriguez inherited at team that could not have been more different than the one he had at WVU.

              The results have been a disaster.

              Rodriguez is 8-16 at Michigan. He has won 3 Big 10 games in 2 seasons of play. He has 1 road win in Big 10 play. The defense is completely without talent. Rodriguez is forced to play true freshmen at a majority of his secondary positions, and up front there simply isn't any talent.

              Adding to Rich Rod's woes is the pending NCAA penalty hanging over his program. And just recently announced----WVU is being investigated for infractions that occured when Rich Rod was in Morgantown. Same story. Both programs exceeded practice limitations, and the NCAA wasn't particularly happy about it.

              And while every other team has glowing positive reports coming from there camps------Michigan has Tate Forcier their starting QB from last year, having the wings taken off his helmet until he "earns" them back. Forcier's mother also isn't helping matters by keeping a running blog that has called out the QBs Forcier is in competition with.

              Oh, the fun.

              This isn't going to end well for Rodriguez. The pressure entering this game is going to crack him.

              UConn is the more consistent program right now, and Michigan fans are going to have a very rough year.

              Connecticut is the play.
              Comment
              • larojoes
                SBR Hustler
                • 03-22-08
                • 52

                #8
                Excellent write-ups on your picks; really well done. With you on Ia. St. though not playing it myself. Good luck this season.
                Comment
                • HoulihansTX
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 02-12-09
                  • 30566

                  #9
                  GL this year.
                  Comment
                  • Joe_Shabadoo
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 09-17-09
                    • 607

                    #10
                    Originally posted by MartinBlank
                    Okay guys. Here goes. Week 1. Five selections. #1. Utah (-2.5) over Pittsburgh (Bookmaker). Risking 110 to win 100. I love this matchup. Utah enters the game having won 47 of the 64 games Kyle Whittingham has coached at Utah. Perhaps more impressive is Willingham's 5-0 bowl record. Utah returns 12 starters, 8 on offense but only 4 on defense. They have produced more NFL players in the past 4 years than any other non-BCS school. Pitt returns 11 players, 5 on offense and 6 on defense. Dave Wannstedt has yet to break through in the Big East, but he has recruited exceptionally well the past few seasons. I like Utah for a few reasons. I believe the talent level is about even, but I think Utah holds a dramatic edge in coaching. Whittingham is just a much better coach than Wannstedt, and Pitt has been wildly inconsistent during Wanny's time. The Panthers always seem to stumble in September under Wannstedt. During his time at Pitt, the Panthers have lost to Ohio, Connecticut, Virginia, Navy, Bowling Green, and NC State early in the season. They simply don't start well. Secondly. Pitt's QB position is very questionable at best. Sunseri gets the start, he is a true soph making his first start on the road against a very good Utah team. The Panthers do have Dion Lewis in the backfield, and we all know what kind of talent he is. The Panthers also have Jon Baldwin, but we are talking about a QB here who has attempted a grand total of 17 passes. Add in the element of it being a night game on national tv, and it doesn't look good for Pitt. Pitt returns an OL with only 42 career starts among them, that ranks 98th in the country. The topper for me is Utah's QB. Jordan Wynn. Wynn has proven he can run Utah's spread as good as anyone. Last year he started 6 games, and the Utes averaged more than 34 ppg with him running the ship. Wynn dominated Cal in last year's Poinsettia Bowl, throwing for 338 yards, completing 72% of his throws, including 3 tds. Utes have large advantages at 2 very important spots---QB play and coaching. Throw in home-field, and I love Utah -2.5
                    I whole-heartedly agree.

                    This game bugs me though, moving off of 3-even, but me thinks the thing that swung the key move was likely the "apparent" public backing of PITT.

                    I'll probably have a 3-unit play on Utah, but I'm going against by index numbers that has PITT as a (gulp) less-than-one point favorite.

                    Most assuredly, as you also noted, Kyle Whittingham is just a far superior situational coach in this spot, and hopefully will have V.J. Fehoko running that defense as Stevenson Sylvester & Robert Johnson did.
                    Comment
                    • corymsu
                      Restricted User
                      • 10-30-09
                      • 279

                      #11
                      Martin looks like I am going to eat crow on the yanks pick! Just wanted to seek u out bc I am a man too and I can take it like one! Haha. But I also wanted to say that I like the write ups on the college football and wanted to ask which game u like the most? I know u risked the same for all of them but if u had one u liked more than the others? I was wanting to tease the Utah game with the USC game and get Utah plus 4 and USC minus 14? Any thoughts?
                      Comment
                      • MartinBlank
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 07-20-08
                        • 8382

                        #12
                        Originally posted by corymsu
                        Martin looks like I am going to eat crow on the yanks pick! Just wanted to seek u out bc I am a man too and I can take it like one! Haha. But I also wanted to say that I like the write ups on the college football and wanted to ask which game u like the most? I know u risked the same for all of them but if u had one u liked more than the others? I was wanting to tease the Utah game with the USC game and get Utah plus 4 and USC minus 14? Any thoughts?
                        Cory.....no problem. Besides that, I don't think the Yanks are out of that game just yet. I never gloat or rub anyone's face in a loss----that doesn't do me any good. Hell, I have enough troubles of of my own just trying to find a winner.

                        Of all the games I have listed----I really like Utah. The line movement is odd, but I just like their QB play and the fact they are playing at home. Pitt may gouge them for 250 on the ground-----but I think Utah will make Sunseri throw the football and I am not convinced Pitt can beat them throwing it.

                        Good luck to you--and don't give up on your Yanks just yet.
                        Comment
                        • Joe_Shabadoo
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 09-17-09
                          • 607

                          #13
                          Also, I believe the Utes are 13-0 in games with more than a week of preparation.
                          Comment
                          • MartinBlank
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 07-20-08
                            • 8382

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Joe_Shabadoo
                            Also, I believe the Utes are 13-0 in games with more than a week of preparation.
                            Joe---good point. The Utes are 13-0 with more than one week of prep. And they haven't lost at home since 2007. They have won 17 straight at home. Not too shabby.
                            Comment
                            • john2153
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 02-12-10
                              • 79

                              #15
                              Uconn released their depth chart today, and in a huge surprise, Greg Lloyd is starting at MLB. He tore his ACL against Notre Dame last year and over the summer it was rumored he would take a medical redshirt for this season. But apparently he recovered extremely quickly and is ready to play. Edsall would not put him out there if this was not the case. With LLoyd in the lineup at MLB, along with Scott Lutrus and Lawrence Wilson, UConn has one of the best linebacker cores in the country. This is great news for Uconn backers.
                              Comment
                              • ZBOIZ
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 06-22-08
                                • 21464

                                #16


                                I remember last year Martin put money on Notre Dame every week.. the kid was struggling
                                Comment
                                • NBAwinner
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 03-20-10
                                  • 249

                                  #17
                                  very nice write up
                                  Comment
                                  • ackem19
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 10-07-09
                                    • 669

                                    #18
                                    GL Martin. Love the write-ups and I'm glad that you and I seem to come to the same conclusions on both the games I did write-ups for (UConn and Utah). BOL to you this season and I look forward to more.
                                    Comment
                                    • MartinBlank
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 07-20-08
                                      • 8382

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by ZBOIZ


                                      I remember last year Martin put money on Notre Dame every week.. the kid was struggling
                                      Z. I bet ND 4 times last year. I hit them with Nevada and USC...and lost with them on Purdue and Connecticut.

                                      I don't expect you to get much right, but at the very least get my record straight.

                                      By the way Z----I do recall you posting no less than 3 Jordan Jefferson videos last pre-season---telling us how "dominant" he would be----How'd that work out for you? Yeah, didn't think so.

                                      And I don't think I qualify as a kid.
                                      Last edited by MartinBlank; 08-30-10, 10:44 PM.
                                      Comment
                                      • MartinBlank
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 07-20-08
                                        • 8382

                                        #20
                                        #5. Northwestern (-5.5) over Vanderbilt (Greek) Risking 110 to win 100.

                                        I wasn't particularly thrilled with the idea of laying almost a touch on the road against an SEC team----but Vanderbilt isn't really and SEC team now are they?

                                        Northwestern is coming off a respectable 8-5 season in 2009---including an OT loss to Auburn in the Outback Bowl last year. Pat Fitzgerald has done a nice job coaching his alma mater, and they are 17-9 the last two seasons. Northwestern had some nice wins last year---they went into Iowa and beat them, and then the Wildcats closed out their regular season with a 33-31 win over Wisconsin.

                                        Northwestern has 13 starters returning, gone is QB Mike Kafka who is playing for the Philadelphia Eagles. In his place will be Dan Persa---a jr who took over when Kafka got dinged up last year. While Persa is inexperienced, he almost won the job last spring in a battle against Kafka---this coaching staff is pretty confident in his ability to run their offense.

                                        Defensively the Wildcats are inconsistent. They shut down Iowa but were lit up by Syracuse. They do have some stability and returning experience, especially among the front seven. If the 'Cats were playing an explosive offensive football team, I would probably pass in this spot---but Vanderbilt isn't that type of team.

                                        The Commodores are going to struggle this year. A lot. They are coming off a 2-10 campaign with only 11 returning starters, and a shockingly high 29 lettermen gone. The 2009 season was particularly brutal for Vandy, as they lost to Army--among a stretch of games that watched the Commodores lose 8 straight games to close out the 2009 season.

                                        More has changed for Vanderbilt. Long-time coach---and a good one---Bobby Johnson retired in the summer, leaving Robbie Caldwell as the new head coach of the program. Vanderbilt struggled to do just about everything last year----score, stop the run, even special teams struggled. Larry Smith returns at the QB position for Vandy, but they just aren't getting the job done up front. I expect that trend to continue.

                                        This one just points Northwestern's way. The Wildcats are the much better offensive team, and Vandy just doesn't do enough on that side of the ball to threaten Northwestern. Home-field emotion may keep it close for a quarter or so----after that----It is all Wildcats.

                                        Northwestern is my selection here.
                                        Comment
                                        • ZBOIZ
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 06-22-08
                                          • 21464

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by MartinBlank
                                          Z. I bet ND 4 times last year. I hit them with Nevada and USC...and lost with them on Purdue and Connecticut.

                                          I don't expect you to get much right, but at the very least get my record straight.

                                          By the way Z----I do recall you posting no less than 3 Jordan Jefferson videos last pre-season---telling us how "dominant" he would be----How'd that work out for you? Yeah, didn't think so.

                                          And I don't think I qualify as a kid.

                                          just joking with you Martin
                                          Comment
                                          • NYER5680
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 05-10-07
                                            • 1486

                                            #22
                                            Gl martin my man
                                            Comment
                                            • MartinBlank
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 07-20-08
                                              • 8382

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by ZBOIZ
                                              just joking with you Martin
                                              Z.....it's all good buddy. I didn't take your post THAT seriously------that is the problem with message boards------it is tough to see the humor in posts---I was not offended by what you wrote---and I was joking right back at ya.

                                              Oh...I have your Tigers this week in a contest.......Go LES!!!
                                              Comment
                                              • MartinBlank
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 07-20-08
                                                • 8382

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by NYER5680
                                                Gl martin my man
                                                Thanks NY----Hope you have a great season!
                                                Comment
                                                • masr
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 10-20-07
                                                  • 4773

                                                  #25
                                                  Nice write ups, I like UCONN, havent pulled the trigger yet...
                                                  Good luck this season
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Beat up the book
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 08-21-08
                                                    • 380

                                                    #26
                                                    Go get em Martin. I love the under in the Iowa st game.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • hankcream
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 06-30-10
                                                      • 2048

                                                      #27
                                                      Great write-ups & analysis Martin, I've got Pitt +3, I have been burned before by Wannstedt but I think they cover here, I really like under 49 more than the side. Have a great year
                                                      Comment
                                                      • MartinBlank
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 07-20-08
                                                        • 8382

                                                        #28
                                                        Thanks for the words guys...

                                                        Well, it was a very very nice start to the 2010 Season.

                                                        2-0 on the day.

                                                        Best of luck to everyone.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • MartinBlank
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 07-20-08
                                                          • 8382

                                                          #29
                                                          Not that anyone cares, but I place my feature game into my blog with another write-up.

                                                          Again, thanks to the gambling gods---I started yesterday with a nice 2-0 run.

                                                          Best of luck to everyone.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • corymsu
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 10-30-09
                                                            • 279

                                                            #30
                                                            Martin nice start yesterday! I was on Utah also but didn't help bc I teased with USC minus 14 and they win by 13! U like anything today??
                                                            Comment
                                                            • blackbeSSt
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 09-06-08
                                                              • 9398

                                                              #31
                                                              nice way to hit it hard right out of the gate martin
                                                              Comment
                                                              • MartinBlank
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 07-20-08
                                                                • 8382

                                                                #32
                                                                Thanks guys----Nothing today.

                                                                Best of luck to all of you guys...
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ZBOIZ
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 06-22-08
                                                                  • 21464

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by MartinBlank
                                                                  Z.....it's all good buddy. I didn't take your post THAT seriously------that is the problem with message boards------it is tough to see the humor in posts---I was not offended by what you wrote---and I was joking right back at ya.

                                                                  Oh...I have your Tigers this week in a contest.......Go LES!!!

                                                                  I have to laugh at that one!

                                                                  I'm not a Les fan anymore unless he grow his Lesticles back like he had in 07 going for 4th down and faking punts and field goals.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  SBR Contests
                                                                  Collapse
                                                                  Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                  Collapse
                                                                  Working...