The Greek has California's season win total at 7 over -150. So for this play top lose they would have to lose at least 6 games, which wont happen.
The Golden Bears get a few easy wins to start the season. They play Cal Davis, then they are at home to play Colorado. Then they go on the road to play Nevada and Arizona, then they are back at home to face UCLA.
I really believe the first 5 games will make California either 4-1 or possibly even 5-0. But even assuming they are only 3-2 after these 5, they still have Arizona State, Washington, and Stanford at home, so thats 2 more wins for 5 total.
They also have Oregon State and Washington State on the road which to me should be 2 easy wins even on the road. The way I look at it, if everything goes wrong, California will push this total at 7. But most likely they will win 8 or 9, and the OOBG and Statfox both say this team should be close to 10 wins.
There was so much hype on California last year early in the season, and it pretty much didnt pan out as they ended up with an 8-5 record. But this is pretty much the same team this year and now they have to go 6-6 to lose this play. They are returning 9 offensive starters and 7 defensive starters. Coach Tedford has 20 returning players who started at least 4 games last year.
Starting QB Kevin Riley is back, but the Bears have lost Jahvid Best in the backfield. This is really their only major loss from last years team, and really I think he will be more than replaced by Shane Vereen. Vereen started 1 game last year when Best was injured and he ran for 193 yards and 3 TD's. They also return a good recieving core in Marvin Jones and Jeremy Ross.
The Bears bring in a new defensive Coordinator this year, but they will run the same 3-4 defense they did last year, so that wont be much of a factor. They also bring back a very good deal from last years defense which gave up 25 PPG. But that was giving up 120 to Oregon, USC, and Washington. The defense may get crushed in those 3 games and they may lose all 3 of those, but you take that out and this defense was only allowing 20 PPG last year. So this is a much better Defense than the 25 PPG implies.
I also feel that the PAC 10 is not a very strong conference anymore. The only real strong team out here is USC, and with this team being on probation who knows. Still, I feel that California can play with the whole conference except USC and maybe Oregon. But considering the Golden Bears will go 3-0 in their non conference slate, they only have to go 4-5 in conference to push this and 5-4 or better to win it.
I just have to believe there are more than enough cupcakes in the Pac 10 that California will end up with 8 wins in a worse case scenario. This is, after all pretty much the same team that was ranked as high as #5 last year before getting smoked in back to back weeks by Oregon and USC.
I think the win total here should be 8 or 8 1/2, getting it at 7 is a gift, as IMO the worse case scenario will be a push. The Golden Bears have finished above .500 each of the last 9 years, and that wont change this year.
I predict 9-3, but 7-5 is absolute worst case scenario and thats a push.
The Golden Bears get a few easy wins to start the season. They play Cal Davis, then they are at home to play Colorado. Then they go on the road to play Nevada and Arizona, then they are back at home to face UCLA.
I really believe the first 5 games will make California either 4-1 or possibly even 5-0. But even assuming they are only 3-2 after these 5, they still have Arizona State, Washington, and Stanford at home, so thats 2 more wins for 5 total.
They also have Oregon State and Washington State on the road which to me should be 2 easy wins even on the road. The way I look at it, if everything goes wrong, California will push this total at 7. But most likely they will win 8 or 9, and the OOBG and Statfox both say this team should be close to 10 wins.
There was so much hype on California last year early in the season, and it pretty much didnt pan out as they ended up with an 8-5 record. But this is pretty much the same team this year and now they have to go 6-6 to lose this play. They are returning 9 offensive starters and 7 defensive starters. Coach Tedford has 20 returning players who started at least 4 games last year.
Starting QB Kevin Riley is back, but the Bears have lost Jahvid Best in the backfield. This is really their only major loss from last years team, and really I think he will be more than replaced by Shane Vereen. Vereen started 1 game last year when Best was injured and he ran for 193 yards and 3 TD's. They also return a good recieving core in Marvin Jones and Jeremy Ross.
The Bears bring in a new defensive Coordinator this year, but they will run the same 3-4 defense they did last year, so that wont be much of a factor. They also bring back a very good deal from last years defense which gave up 25 PPG. But that was giving up 120 to Oregon, USC, and Washington. The defense may get crushed in those 3 games and they may lose all 3 of those, but you take that out and this defense was only allowing 20 PPG last year. So this is a much better Defense than the 25 PPG implies.
I also feel that the PAC 10 is not a very strong conference anymore. The only real strong team out here is USC, and with this team being on probation who knows. Still, I feel that California can play with the whole conference except USC and maybe Oregon. But considering the Golden Bears will go 3-0 in their non conference slate, they only have to go 4-5 in conference to push this and 5-4 or better to win it.
I just have to believe there are more than enough cupcakes in the Pac 10 that California will end up with 8 wins in a worse case scenario. This is, after all pretty much the same team that was ranked as high as #5 last year before getting smoked in back to back weeks by Oregon and USC.
I think the win total here should be 8 or 8 1/2, getting it at 7 is a gift, as IMO the worse case scenario will be a push. The Golden Bears have finished above .500 each of the last 9 years, and that wont change this year.
I predict 9-3, but 7-5 is absolute worst case scenario and thats a push.
