Tweets Season Long Picks

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Started putting in bets this weekend for the first week of games so thought it was time to start the thread for discussion. All week 1 plays are only 1 unit.

Pittsburgh (+3.5) over Utah

I really like Pitt's running game to take over in this game. Seems like early on in the season it is easier to get the run going rather than the pass. Utah's D is pretty decent up front but younger once you get to the LB's and secondary. I think if Pitt can control the line, they have a good shot at winning this one. This line is coming down to 3 at most books and I like having the extra hook.


USC (-19.5) over Hawaii

USC has something to prove and some anger to get out in this game. I also don't forsee Kiffin calling off the dogs early. This is like USC's bowl game for the year and I think they win easily. I also think the over might be a decent play but I haven't pulled the trigger on it yet.

Missouri (-13.5) over Illinois

Illinois had a down year last year and while they improve at QB this year they are still young and I think they get handled easily by a decent Mizzou team. Blaine Gabbert is poised for a breakout year at QB and some young WR's have emerged in training. MU's defense has some holes but I don't think Illinois has the offense to over exploit them. Wanted to get this line before it got to 14 everywhere.

Northwestern (-3) over Vanderbilt

This isn't so much a bet for NW as it is a bet against Vandy. NW has an ok offense with an inexperienced QB. I don't see a lot of points in this game as I think it will be very methodical for both teams. Vandy was bad last year and I don't see a lot of improvement this year.

Michigan (-3) over UConn

This has the looks of a trap game, and it very well may be but I think Michigan is the more talented football team and this early in the year special players make a difference when everything isnt clicking yet. UConn looks to be in position to have a great year, I just don't think they will go to the big house and leave with a victory. This line should be fun to watch the next couple of weeks.

LSU (-1.5) over UNC

I can see this line swinging back the other way some but I dont think it is going to make a difference as I don't think it will end up more than 3 points either way. This should be one of the best games of the first weekend as 2 top 25 teams meet on a somewhat neutral field. I think LSU has the talent to win this if they get at least average QB play from Jefferson.

Wisconsin (-20) over UNLV

I wish I could have gotten this line earlier but I thought it was best to go ahead and take it at 20 as I don't think it will move back the other way. Wisconsin has a very balanced offense this year with the return of Tolzien at QB and Heisman contender John Clay at RB. UNLV will have a tough time stopping them and it doesn't look like UNLV has the athletes to score a lot on Wisky. This is one of my top plays for the weekend.



I've got leans on 3 other plays but need some more info and/or line movements.
I like UCLA over KSU but it looks like there are some injury concerns that might play into this.
I like Washington over BYU but I think we might be able to get Washington at +4 before game time.
I also like Oregon State at +14 but the line has moved to +13 and I'm not sure I like it enough there. If I could get 13.5, I would buy it to 14.

Still looking at Sunday/Monday games but I see at least one definite play there.

Analysis/constructive comments appreciated.

[BigdaddyQH]

Good Luck. I have Northwestern at -2.5. I grabbed Wisky at -17 on the comeout, but they have to pay attention to business or the line may get back-doored. I also went with UCLA, and the line is now down to 2.5 in a lot of places. LSU has lost starting LB Ryan Baker for that game. That, plus Mile's ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory really make me question this game. I took LSU +3 on a future, but I am going to middle that out as soon as I can get a decent line. I want UNC and more than the 1.5 that is being offered now.

[NBAwinner]

good luck , nice write up by the way

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Looks like some other people must be starting to put in plays, lines are moving today at Bookmaker. LSU is now available at +1 all the way to -1.5. USC and Wisky have both slid up another half point or so. I dont see Pitt at +3.5 anywhere, looks like all at 3 now. UCLA down to -1, might be able to get that as a PK eventually.

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UCLA is getting close to +3, flipped over from -3, Once it hits +3 at any of my 6 books, I will be taking it.

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Pulled trigger on 2 more

Washington (+3) over BYU

I don't think BYU is as good as they have been the last few years and are the favorite here based on what they have done recently. Washington is a much more experienced team this year with Locker at QB and a group of WR's that look to be good. They've also got an OL that should open holes for whoever is running the ball and give Locker time to throw. D is good enough to take care of a so-so BYU team.

Navy (-6.5) over Maryland

Ricky Dobbs and the Triple threat option are back this year and I think it will be very effective early in the season as teams haven't prepared for it over the summer. Dobbs runs this to perfection and as long as Navy's D comes to play, I don't see Maryland having much of a chance in this game.

Still eyeing UCLA if I can get it to +3 and I will be taking Oregon State even if I have to buy it to 14. The few other games I had looked at have gotten to far away from what I wanted to play it at to even think they might get back to the number I want.

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Pittsburgh (+3.5) over Utah

I really like Pitt's running game to take over in this game. Seems like early on in the season it is easier to get the run going rather than the pass. Utah's D is pretty decent up front but younger once you get to the LB's and secondary. I think if Pitt can control the line, they have a good shot at winning this one. This line is coming down to 3 at most books and I like having the extra hook.

Nice to get that first one of the year by a hook.

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Not going to take UCLA, the more I read the less i think I know about that one. I really like Oregon State and I will have a play just not sure if I will have to buy it to 14 or if I can get it to move there tomorrow. I really feel that there is a possibility of a big upset there and possibly a chance for OSU to win outright.

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Oregon State (+14) over TCU

Bought the half point up to 14, i think this line will move down to 13 as the day goes on. I really think Oregon St has a good chance to keep this close with the big play abilities of the Rodgers brothers. Going to be a good game to watch.

[C-Gold]

I am an NFL pro, don't really follow college, but a smart guy I respect told me Wisky would cover over UNLV's swiss cheese defense. Not likely for a backdoor cover as Wisky will just keep the chains moving with the run game late in the game.

I also hear Oregon State is a decent pick getting 13.5 too. I don't really know college except for a couple of the very best teams.

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Tulsa (-7) over E. Carolina

A little Sunday action here, thought this was going to be a no play as the line had shot up a couple points but it came back to 7 and I really like Tulsa's chance on the road here.

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Boise State/Virginia Tech over 51

Going to need both these games today to finish the weekend on the positive side. I think both these teams will be able to score and it should be close. I see something like 31-27 do the over looks like the play to me.

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Not a wonderful start, but with only being 1 unit plays, not much lost.

Total for week 1: 5-6-1 (-1.60 Units)

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Week 2 Starting

West Virginia (-13.5) over Marshall

National TV on a Fridan Night game and I fully expect WV to try to make a statement here. WV isn't that high in the preseason rankings but with Noel Devine carrying the rock they have a chance to make some noise this year. Marshall did not look good first time out this year and WV has not won by less than 14 to Marshall in the last 4 meetings.

East Carolina (-12) over Memphis

I'm sure this will be a very square play but getting the number early should help. I would be suprised if you will be able to find 12 by the end of the day after ECU came out and beat a Tulsa team that I thought was poised to be pretty good this year. Memphis is rebuilding and this is going to be a down year for them.


Waiting on Totals for Auburn/Miss St and UTEP/Houston. I will probably be on the over for both, I don't think they can set the Houston line high enough.

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UTEP/Houston over 73.5

Like I said, they can't set this line high enough. I think these gets to 80 easily. 2 potent offenses and not great D's.

Oregon (-12) over Tennessee

Oregon showed us all something last week even without their starting RB. I don't think we'll see 72 this week but they should have more than enough to beat a rebuilding Tenn team.

UCLA (+6) over Stanford

UCLA has a solid team with a tough schedule this year. I think they can keep this one close and may not win but should show up at home.

Only other 2 plays i am looking at are Texas Tech if I can get 24 and UCF if I can get 3.

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Central Florida (-2.5) over NC State

Did better than I expected and got this at 2.5. NC State is not that great this year and I think UCF will get this done at home. Using this as one of my BTP picks as well.

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Auburn (PK) over Miss St

I fought with this one because I wasn't going to be home to even watch it, but now that I am going to be home I just can't not take Auburn. Auburn is the better team here and you can say that this is a revenge game or whatever but Auburn is the better team and getting them at a PK is a gift.

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Texas Tech (-24) over New Mexico

TT isn't Oregon but they have a good offense and New Mexico doesn't appear to have a clue on defense or special teams. This should be an easy cover if Tech's defense doesn't give up to many points.

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Auburn (PK) over Miss St

I fought with this one because I wasn't going to be home to even watch it, but now that I am going to be home I just can't not take Auburn. Auburn is the better team here and you can say that this is a revenge game or whatever but Auburn is the better team and getting them at a PK is a gift.

Winner and a good game to watch

6-6-1 (-.60 Units) 7 games pending including 2 tonight. Hopefully be on the plus side by this time tomorrow.

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7-7-1 (-.70 units) Going to clear the hump tomorrow.

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Adding one more

South Carolina (-3) over Georgia

Georgia is going to miss Green at WR and their offense just isnt as potent. SC looked good last week and at home I think they get it done here.

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11-9-1 (+1.1 units)

Got it rolling now

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Week 3 Begins

Cal (-2) over Nevada

I like this at 2 and feel confident it will move to 3, both teams have started the year off great but the level of competition has been subpar. CAL has been great at stopping the run and I think if they can slow down Taua they should be able to go into Nevada and win.

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Failed to mention, going to stick with 1 unit plays for another week unless I see something I really like. Probably move to 2 units next week.

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East Carolina (+17) over Virginia Tech

I've seen ECU play a couple times this year and they've been impressive, VT on the other hand has not been that great. VT hasn't beaten ECU by more than 17 in the last 4 meetings. Probably going to get called a trap game, but I like ECU a lot here.

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Western Michigan (-4) over Toledo

Western Michigan should win the conference this year and while Toledo is expected to be decent this year, their offense has struggled. I don't see Toledo coming in to W Mich and making this game competitive.

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Houston (-3) over UCLA

This is an unresearched play based solely on the fact that I think the line is currently adjusted for an injured Case Keenum. I think once more is known about Keenum's health, this line will take off. Houston looked very good with Keenum and this is another chance to impress Heisman voters.

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3 more put in

Auburn (-7) over Clemson

I am fascinated by Cam Newton and I think he has a good chance to go off here. Too many question marks on Clemson for me, close game but I think Auburn covers.

Texas (-3) over Texas Tech

I don't think anyone will argue that Texas is the better team here and while I think Tech will be fired up here and make it competitive, I don't think you can pass up a FG spread with the clearly better team.

Boise St (-23.5) over Wyoming

Boise is going to have to destroy teams if they want to make it to the BCS championship. I feel sorry for Wyoming but Kellen and the boys have something to prove here.

A few others I liked but haven't got the number I want
Air Force over OU, not looking like I will get the 20 I wanted
LSU over Miss St, going to look at this again but I screwed up not getting the 7
Hawaii over Colorado, something fishy with this line, going to stay away
Arizona over Iowa, close game could go either way

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Late play

S Miss/Kansas Under 53

S Miss has a new OL that will have a hard time moving the ball. S Miss has a fairly good D, national TV, nerves, I like the under.

So far the week

S Miss/KU under 53
Cal -2
E Carolina +17
W Mich -4
Houston -3
Texas -3
Auburn -7
Boise St -23.5

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Couple more

Arkansas (ML +110) over Georgia

I don't think Georgia's inexperienced secondary will be able to slow down Mallet and one of the best receiving corps in the country. Even if Georgia does slow them down, I don't think they can score with out Green.

LSU (-7)(-112) over Miss St

I liked this play earlier in the week at 7 but it had gotten to 8 and I didn't think I would get it back at 7, now that I did I think is a really nice play. No real reason behind the play except the fact that LSU is more than a touchdown better than Miss St and I don't think they will have any trouble.

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Hawaii (+14) over Colorado

I still don't understand this line, I liked Hawaii at 10 and now I'm getting 2 full TD's??? Hawaii spent the week in Nevada and I don't see them super tired like the linesmakers must think they are going to be. I would consider a small play on the Hawaii ML as well.

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Ugly Week 5-6

For the Season (16-15-1) (-.4 Units)

Going to bump to 2 unit plays next week and get it rolling. Had a couple tough dog losses this week or it could have been a different story.

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Back to the drawing board this week, making sure I am doing all my research before making a play. Got a little rushed last week and made a couple bad plays.

Miami/Pittsburgh Under 51

I didn't see any true advantage for either side here, if I had to take a side I would probably take Miami. Both teams have been pretty good against the run this year but I think Pitt has to try and get Dion Lewis going this week one way or another. This should bleed the clock and make a lot of 3 and out possessions. Jacory Harris is always good for a couple of drive killing INT's to slow down Miami. Should be a hard fought Thursday night game and I see 1 team not showing up and an easy under. 30% chance of rain on Thursday would help this out as well.

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Forgot to mention that I will be bumping up to some 2 unit plays but the first pick is not 1 of them.

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First 2 Unit Play of the season

Toledo (+13) over Purdue

Purdue has been disappointing this year, they have QB issues with the backup looking better than Marve, RB's are all hurt. Toledo has been playing very well this year and has beaten a couple of MAC teams they weren't expected to. I think Toledo will be hungry knowing they have a chance to knock off a Big 10 team. Only place I still found 13 was at YouWager, I believe this line will slowly work its way down to 11 or so.