Historically speaking, Michigan has been a powerhouse and UConn's football team has never mirrored the success of their basketball team. Over the last few years Michigan has been nothing like their teams of yesteryear and have yet to have a winning season under HC Rich Rodriguez. Meanwhile, UConn is coming off of a 20-7 Bowl Victory over S. Carolina top cap off a great season both SU and ATS. UConn dominated last season going 11-2 ATS. One common trait of UConn’s ATS wins, was their ability to run the ball averaging 180 Rush YPG in their 11 victories as opposed to only 117 Rush YPG in their 2 losses ATS. Michigan got killed on the ground last season allowing 172 Rush YPG ranking 92nd in the nation. Both teams are returning 15 starters (UConn: OFF: 8 DEF: 7)(Mich: OFF: 7 DEF: 8) so neither team really has an experience edge, but UConn is returning 4 of 5 of their O-Line starters who were instrumental in their ground game. Now while team statistics favor UConn, let’s move on to the coaching matchup.
Randy Edsall is 0-4 against Rich Rodriguez. The 4 times these two met, Rich Rodriguez was accompanied by current Michigan Offensive Coordinator, Calvin Macgee. Edsall has been outscored 175-51 in the 4 meetings, proving that Rodriguez’s spread offense was too much for them to handle. Granted, in 3 of those 4 meetings, WVU had Pat White and Tate Forcier is no Pat White. However, Rodriguez has only faced current UConn Defensive Coordinator Todd Orlando once and that is when WVU beat down UConn 66-21 in 2007. Although that was Orlando’s first season, UConn hasn’t seemed to improve against the spread offense allowing 241.4 Pass YPG against spread offenses including giving up 480 against Cincinnati and even 295 against Louisville. Last season, UConn brought on a new Offensive Coordinator in Joe Moorehead, replacing Rob Ambrose who had no success against Rodriguez. Michigan’s 2nd year Defensive Coordinator is no stranger to Edsall. Michigan DC Greg Robinson was the DC at Syracuse from 2005-2008 and Edsall had much more success against him outscoring Syracuse 109-48 and seemed to have no trouble putting up points against his defense.
As far as ATS Trends:
Michigan is 1-6 both SU and ATS when the spread is between -3 and +3 over the last 3 seasons.
Michigan is 4-10 ATS in home games over the last 3 seasons.
Michigan is 2-9 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
UConn is 9-3 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons.
UConn is 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in Non-Conference games over the last 3 seasons.
UConn is 10-3 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
Conclusion: This is a make-or-break year for Rodriguez and he can’t afford to drop games to Big East foes. However, I don’t believe he has been able to recruit the talent he needs to win, failing to produce a winning record during his tenure at Michigan and I don’t expect this year to be any different. I think UConn will put the ball on the ground behind their experienced O-Line, control the clock, and keep Michigan’s offense off of the field. I really like UConn as an underdog and while I think Michigan will have success on offense, I don’t think it will be enough to overcome UConn’s ground game. UConn +3 is probably the best bet here.
Randy Edsall is 0-4 against Rich Rodriguez. The 4 times these two met, Rich Rodriguez was accompanied by current Michigan Offensive Coordinator, Calvin Macgee. Edsall has been outscored 175-51 in the 4 meetings, proving that Rodriguez’s spread offense was too much for them to handle. Granted, in 3 of those 4 meetings, WVU had Pat White and Tate Forcier is no Pat White. However, Rodriguez has only faced current UConn Defensive Coordinator Todd Orlando once and that is when WVU beat down UConn 66-21 in 2007. Although that was Orlando’s first season, UConn hasn’t seemed to improve against the spread offense allowing 241.4 Pass YPG against spread offenses including giving up 480 against Cincinnati and even 295 against Louisville. Last season, UConn brought on a new Offensive Coordinator in Joe Moorehead, replacing Rob Ambrose who had no success against Rodriguez. Michigan’s 2nd year Defensive Coordinator is no stranger to Edsall. Michigan DC Greg Robinson was the DC at Syracuse from 2005-2008 and Edsall had much more success against him outscoring Syracuse 109-48 and seemed to have no trouble putting up points against his defense.
As far as ATS Trends:
Michigan is 1-6 both SU and ATS when the spread is between -3 and +3 over the last 3 seasons.
Michigan is 4-10 ATS in home games over the last 3 seasons.
Michigan is 2-9 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
UConn is 9-3 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons.
UConn is 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in Non-Conference games over the last 3 seasons.
UConn is 10-3 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
Conclusion: This is a make-or-break year for Rodriguez and he can’t afford to drop games to Big East foes. However, I don’t believe he has been able to recruit the talent he needs to win, failing to produce a winning record during his tenure at Michigan and I don’t expect this year to be any different. I think UConn will put the ball on the ground behind their experienced O-Line, control the clock, and keep Michigan’s offense off of the field. I really like UConn as an underdog and while I think Michigan will have success on offense, I don’t think it will be enough to overcome UConn’s ground game. UConn +3 is probably the best bet here.
