SoonerBS Week #1 Plays

[SoonerBS]

UCLA beats K-State. UCLA owns their non-con opponents, going 6-1 S/U and 5-2 ATS since Neuheilsel took over. K-State is going nowheres in a hurry. They are not going to challenge for anything. Neuheisel wants 8 wins out of UCLA this season. To have any shot at this, they MUST defeat K-State. Now I think that 8 wins for UCLA is a real stretch, but the fact remains that this is a very big game for Neuheisel. With Stanford at home on deck, followed by Houston at home and a trip to Austin, this basically becomes a "must" game for UCLA, and they will play like it is. A loss to K-State and an 0-4 start is staring them in the face. A win and a 3-1 start is not out of the realm of possibility.

You do realize that in addition to what I posted above in my reasons to play K-State, that now UCLA will be starting their back-up QB?

• Brehaut likely to start at QB in opener
  12:12PM ET
  UCLA Bruins
  
  
  UPDATE: Scott M. Reid of the Orange County Register reports that it still seems unlikely that Kevin Prince will be ready for the opener, and Rick Neuheisel appeared to confirm that Richard Brehaut will be the starter as long as Prince is out.
  "I'm pleased with Richard; I think he's come miles since we got started in camp," Neuheisel said. "Wish we had Kevin Prince healthy and ready and going and all that stuff. But while he nurses himself back to health we are getting the opportunity to have Richard gain a lot of experience and certainly gain some confidence."
  
  Pasted from <http://insider.espn.go.com/ncf/features/rumors#4242>
  

[nflwins]

So what your saying big daddy is k.st. Does not want to win,,just ucla wants to win...oh i see k.st said boys we dont care about this game ucla wants to win it so we will just give it to them,,,,,,see the coach for ucla said he wants 8 wins so the coaches at k.st said well if rick said he wants 8 wins we better let him win.....that makes sense,,,now thats cappping a game.....you know all the schools said why play we will just let ucla get there 8 wins because they want to win.did you think of this all by your self..... Ucla wants to win and the other school has no say so in the matter.,,,it does not matter that ucla only avg around 20 points agame.....is playing a confrence foe next week they could not be looking ahead to the game that is more important being a confrence game.....

[SoonerBS]

So what your saying big daddy is k.st. Does not want to win,,just ucla wants to win...oh i see k.st said boys we dont care about this game ucla wants to win it so we will just give it to them,,,,,,see the coach for ucla said he wants 8 wins so the coaches at k.st said well if rick said he wants 8 wins we better let him win.....that makes sense,,,now thats cappping a game.....you know all the schools said why play we will just let ucla get there 8 wins because they want to win.did you think of this all by your self..... Ucla wants to win and the other school has no say so in the matter.,,,it does not matter that ucla only avg around 20 points agame.....is playing a confrence foe next week they could not be looking ahead to the game that is more important being a confrence game.....

Good point. And, looking at the history and success of the two coaches involved in this match-up, anyone with knowledge of college football would have to take Bill Snyder over Neuheisal.

[SoonerBS]

O-line woes continue

11:27AM ET
UCLA Bruins

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UCLA's offensive line, which has been faced with an unusual amount of attrition, was dealt perhaps its biggest blow on Saturday when junior C Kai Maiava broke his left ankle. He is expected to miss the season.
"This is really upsetting, to be honest with you," sophomore QB Kevin Prince said. "Kai is the anchor of the offensive line. Without him, we'll be OK, but it won't be the same. He brought the mentality you like to have, that dominating mentality. He's experienced. We're going to miss him."
In Maiava's absence, senior LG Ryan Taylor is expected to slide one spot over, with senior backup RG Darius Savage taking Taylor's old spot in the lineup. Taylor has some experience, having filled in for Maiava in the EagleBank Bowl and for much of spring practice. But he struggled with his snapping in the spring, and making line calls is something that requires game situations to perfect.
"I am determined to say no, we are not cursed, but, but ... this does hurt tremendously," said senior RT Micah Kia. "I don't know. I won't believe it I see it with my own two eyes, but if it's as serious as I'm hearing, it's an extreme loss. Kai is a tremendous leader, a tremendous football player, a tremendous offensive lineman, a great person, and he is an asset to what we do here."

[CBASS]

Wow can you tell me where you get those lines.....i would love to all those lines were you dreamimng i looked at when you posted none of those lines were avilable some where neverthere....maybe for a heartbeat on the opener......you guys crack me up....what bull no such lines on the games you posted ......what do you do wait for the line moves then post......nice i will take the rams in 1999 at 100 to 1 to win the super bowl am i too late

Ease up Spam-Master-Flex! SoonerBS is helping all of us with this information. He already mentioned that he made these write-ups at an earlier date. You're not going to find your '70% capper' by making enemies on here. Keep up the good work SoonerBS!

[SoonerBS]

Ease up Spam-Master-Flex! SoonerBS is helping all of us with this information. He already mentioned that he made these write-ups at an earlier date. You're not going to find your '70% capper' by making enemies on here. Keep up the good work SoonerBS!

Thanks, CBASS . . . . .

Because of the lines I played early, I now have an opportunity to make what I think is a rare opportunity that will give me an angle for a better money-making opportunity:

Kansas State +3 and UCLA +2 and UNDER 43.5 -- This middle move was just too sweet to pass up. Offensive linemen are dropping like flies on the UCLA side where they struggle with offense anyway and reports of their defense being better than expected (some true freshmen stepping up) continue to be reported from camp. Couple this with K-State's offensive strength being the running game and you have a clock control situation that screams UNDER. So, even though I think K-State will still win this game SU, I like working with 5 points for the middle and I think the UNDER play has become the strongest play in this game.

So, I'm middling K-State and UCLA and playing the UNDER in the game as well, all for 2 UNITS a piece.

[SoonerBS]

I'm adding this one to my card for opening week:

Syracuse/Akron UNDER 43.5 -- Syracuse only returns 5 offensive starters from last season, but 10 defensive starters. Probably one of the key players that will be missed is their QB, Greg Paulus who graduated. New QB is not inexperienced as he got some playing time last season, but a plague of injuries has broken out on the team leaving them very thin at positions where they needed the experience. They have had some injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well, but so far they have reserved their starting line-up. Syracuse only averaged 21 ppg last season and I expect that to be even lower this season with their inexperience. Akron was not very good last season and they bring back 13 starters off their 3-9 team. They only averaged 19 ppg and their head coach, JD Brookhart was fired. This season they have a new HC and are learning new schemes. Last scrimmage report shows what usually happens this time of the year -- the defense is way ahead of the offense. I don't think either of these offenses are going to be lighting it up in game one. I like the UNDER.

[aznjeff07]

lots and lots of plays. keep them coming

[BigdaddyQH]

Stay off of USC. Lane Kiffin announced yesterday that he plans to use many of his true freshmen extensively in the game. That leaves the back door wide open.

[SoonerBS]

Stay off of USC. Lane Kiffin announced yesterday that he plans to use many of his true freshmen extensively in the game. That leaves the back door wide open.

That's the gamble one takes whenever they play bets early, BD. I still like USC. I think USC's freshmen could probably still cover the spread against Hawaii. Kiffin will mix it up, it will not be an "all freshmen" team.

[Hawk007]

SoonerBS, you seem to know college football. Curious to what your records have been the last couple years? TIA

[redore33]

NFLwins

Good point. And, looking at the history and success of the two coaches involved in this match-up, anyone with knowledge of college football would have to take Bill Snyder over Neuheisal.

Looks like he missed the irony completely. Oklahoma not noted for Mensa members.

[jml7z2]

Would you still play Northwestern -5.5?

[Charles XII]

You still like Kansas State at -2?

[aman86]

Nice call on Nebraska!

[SoonerBS]

For some reason, guys, I haven't been able to get on this site at all for the last couple of days. I got on tonight though, so I wanted to update you on some plays I made:

Texas -29.5 -- This is a line I would have liked to have jumped on earlier, but I wanted to make sure of some factors about Texas' new starters. I have a friend in Texas who is very knowledgeable about NCAA FBS football in general, but he is close to the Texas program and an alumni. I visited with him on several concerns I had for the team: offensive line, new QB, new pro style offense, and the running back situation (I wasn't concerned about their defense as I was sure it was solid this season.) He said the offensive line could be even better this season than they were last season because they have better athletes on the line and they are gelling quickly. He is high on the new QB, and after watching him play in the Championship game last January, I concur. The RB situation is a "wait and see," but he was more concerned about the new pro style offense. Still, when all was said and done, we decided that there was not enough concern to be thinking that Texas would not be covering this line against Rice. In most seasons, this line would have been much higher, but because of the new personnel developments on the Texas side, Vegas left it fairly low. Texas usually has their way with Rice and I think they will do so again this Saturday.

Baylor -36.5 -- Here's a game that Baylor could hang a half a hundred on. SHSU is coming off a 5-6 season and will bring back only 9 starters. They have some experience coming back on defense -- a defense that allowed 34 ppg last year. But, there is very little experience coming back on offense. This is practically an entire new team than last season. As such, this first game could be devastating for them.

Baylor brings back 7 on offense, including the reemergence of their star injured QB, Robert Griffin. I look for Briles to allow him a big game in this opener to help shake the rust off his game. Defensively, Baylor brings back 5 starters off a defense that allowed 27 ppg last season. While that is not that good, they will not be threatened much at all this game against SHSU. I don't know what the line will be, but I think Baylor will cover it easily.

South Carolina State +30 -- South Carolina State came in last year with only 12 starters returning from 2008 and they ended up with a 10-2 season. This year they bring back 14 starters and Steele claims that some of the defensive players could get a shot at the NFL camps next season. They are solid at every position on this team. Last year their only FBS game was against South Carolina in a game they lost by 24 points. BUT, the spread was +36!! Georgia Tech has lost their FCS matchups the last two years ATS because Paul Johnson has a tendency to put in the reserves once he gets up on these teams. GT has two big road games on deck against Kansas and North Carolina, so I figure he will want to do the same thing again IF he is able to get up on this team far enough.

Jacksonville St +27 -- Here's an interesting matchup in which the "line" set on this game will be very important as to whether we play on Jacksonville St or not. That's right, I said "Jacksonville St" play. We all know about Mississippi losing Jevon Snead to the NFL draft, but they also lost 6 other players on offense, besides a back-up QB, Cotton, who was suppose to contend for the starting job this season. They have added Jeremiah Masoli as a walk on, but he will have to compete for the QB position and learn a different style of offense than what he is use to. My thoughts are that the QB position will not be completely sewed up by the time of the first game and they may use this game to play a couple or more players to make that decision. Defensively, Mississippi should still be pretty decent, but they, too, are going to need a couple of games to get going and gel like the offense.

Now, Jacksonville State has had a name you will all recognize at QB for the last 3 years -- Ryan Perriloux. RP has been a stellar player for the Gamecocks in those years as would be expected for a bluechipper who was recruited, and played a bit at LSU. This year, Perriloux is gone, but what a lot of people may not know is the fact the QB who will start and play this season actually started in the season opener last year at, and against, Georgia Tech. In that game, he threw the ball 38 times and completed 23 of them for a 65% completion ratio. He started the game because Perriloux was suspended for that game. The first two games of their season last year, Jacksonville St played Georgia Tech and Florida State and covered the line against both teams! In fact, the final score of the FSU game was 19-9. Jacksonville State has a pretty good defense and returns 13 starters and 48 lettermen off last year's team. Steele lists them as a preseason #2 in their conference.

California -28.5 -- California went 8-5 last season and returns a competitive team this season that I think will do a little better than last year. In year's past, HC, Jeff Tedford has allowed his team to score pretty big on the FCS opponents. Last season, with a line of -33, they beat Eastern Washington 59-7 in the second game of the season. UC Davis is an interesting team. Last season they went 6-5 and played two FBS opponents. They were beaten 51-0 by Fresno State in the season opener, but 3 games later against Boise on the Smurf Turf, they only lost by 18 points and covered a big spread. I think they are going to be somewhat lost the first game of the season against California though as their really good starting QB, who went through Spring practices with them, decided to fore go his Senior year and will not return this season. Last season he threw for 2,932 yards and had a 61% completion rate. He will be hard to replace. His expected replacement had only 9 pass attempts last season. I think California lights these guys up in this game.

[SoonerBS]

SoonerBS, you seem to know college football. Curious to what your records have been the last couple years? TIA

Last year I did terrible. Year before that (2008) I made over 100+ UNITS and went 13-2 in opening week of season. I have made money every season for the last 10 years, but two seasons and those two seasons were 2007 and 2009. I don't know what has happened to cause that other than both seasons played out WEIRD for some reason. I feel good about this season though.

[SoonerBS]

You still like Kansas State at -2?

I would play all my plays at the current lines offered by your sportsbooks except Nebraska. I think Nebraska could probably cover up to 40 points, but it seems to have lost its value from the 33 I got earlier . . . .

[fishmonger]

Where you get those FCS lines?

Nevermind I found them on 5dimes.

[CBASS]

Thank you SoonerBS for all your hard work. This information is very helpful. Please continue to update with any added plays you have. Looking forward to following you all season. GL to everyone!

[Powerhaus]

Nice call on Nebraska Sooner, keep up the good work!