rjt's Bowl Plays

[rjt721]

Going to keep all my plays for the bowl games in this thread.

Regular season record:

Sides: 33-31-4, +6.5
Totals: 14-10-1, +2.53
ATS: 47-41-5 (53.4%) +9.03
ML: 4-5, +1.65
Overall: 51-46-5, +10.68

Las Vegas Bowl, Dec. 22, BYU v. UCLA

2* BYU -4.5: Thought the opener at 4.5 was a little light, but missed out as the Mormons were quickly bet to 5.5/6. Bob came through and gave me a second chance at this number, so I'll bite.

Dorrell's absence would seemingly have nothing but a positive effect on the Bruins, as his incompetence was immeasurable, but even a healthy UCLA team, in my opinion, was no better than the sixth-best team in the Pac 10. Injuries have decimated what wasn't a very good team to begin with. Bell's absence, in particular, severely limits an offense that lacks explosiveness, while the Bruins' defense, a unit which was woefully overrated much of the year based on last season's improbable win over SC, has been prone to allowing big plays, particularly the pass defense.

Most are aware of UCLA's 10-pt. victory over BYU early in the season, and most are aware UCLA isn't the same team now. However, even playing on the road in Max Hall's second game a a starter and his first game away from home, the Cougs outplayed UCLA for 2.5 Q's, dominating the action in the second half. UCLA jumped out 20-0, largely a result of two BYU turnovers that directly resulted in 14 pts., and the Bruins still needed a late BYU fumble, as the Cougs were in the red zone going in for the lead, to win the game. UCLA did little offensively throughout the game, while the Mormons moved the ball with ease through the air.

Patrick Cowan, who missed the first meeting, returning will help UCLA, as the kid's a winner and one of the few Bruin players with any heart, but he's limited in his ability to throw the ball down the field, meaning UCLA figures to have a difficult time putting points on the board. Hall, meanwhile, has steadily improved since the game in early Sept., and BYU preventing costly turnovers this time around should result in a 10-14 pt. win.

[jackpot269]

looks good to me but i flipped flop on this one

[cashflow50]

I believe ucla wont be able to stop byu's samoan running attack. this guy unga is bad ass. he got better and better throughout the season and only a freshman.

[rjt721]

I believe ucla wont be able to stop byu's samoan running attack. this guy unga is bad ass. he got better and better throughout the season and only a freshman.

Yeah, BYU's offense is quite good and they will be even better next season.

Patrick Cowan, who missed the first meeting, returning will help UCLA, as the kid's a winner and one of the few Bruin players with any heart, but he's limited in his ability to throw the ball down the field, meaning UCLA figures to have a difficult time putting points on the board.

I'm an idiot. Cowan's out with a knee injury sustained against SC, meaning a banged-up Ben Olson, who's completed all of 4 passes the last ten weeks, will likely get the nod. Rasshan may even see some action under center.

[Cougar Bait]

With you on the BYU pick. I think it's a good play. Max Hall is scary behind center. GL!

[imgv94]

Lets cash that BYU ticket brother.

[rjt721]

Thanks guys.

Adding:

1* UCLA Team Total UNDER 21 (-115)

[rjt721]

1-1, -1.2

1* East Carolina +11

Happy Holidays!

[imgv94]

Thanks guys.

Adding:

1* UCLA Team Total UNDER 21 (-115)

OMG what a great find this was.

[rjt721]

OMG what a great find this was.

Yeah, too bad Mendenhall's inexplicable decision not to take a knee at the end of the 1st half doomed the BYU side. I guess I can't really complain, as UCLA's defense, particularly the run defense, did a far better job than I anticipated and one play deciding the cover is an indication the game could've gone either way, but not taking a knee was unreal. I also probably underestimated UCLA's desire to go all out for DeWayne Walker.

[imgv94]

I agree with everything you said.

[rjt721]

Bowls: 2-1, -.20

Liberty Bowl, Dec. 29, UCF v. Miss. St.

3* UCF/Miss. St. UNDER 57: Tough total for the oddsmakers to set, but I think the number's a TD or so too high. UCF's offense put up huge numbers in a league where no defense is played, while MSU struggled to score in the best conference in the country. Kevin Smith's a really good back, but his 2400+ yards can largely be attributed to the inferior competition in C-USA. 9 of UCF's 13 opponents were ranked 89th or lower against the run. Against the four defenses Smith faced ranked in the top 51 against the run - Texas, E. Carolina, USF, So. Miss - he averaged 4.5 YPC, down considerably from his 5.9 YPC mark for the season. Facing a SEC defense, he'll have a hard time duplicating the success he had against the likes of UAB and SMU. Lack of success running the ball won't change O'Leary's approach to handing Smith the ball early and often, and against another run-oriented team in MSU, the clock will be moving throughout in a game where a high-40s total seems more appropriate.

1* Mississippi St. ML +135 SEC dog v. C-USA opponent is reason enough for a small play on a MSU team that's shown steady improvement.

Outback Bowl, Jan. 1, Tennessee v. Wisconsin

2* UT/Wisky UNDER 59: Lucas Taylor's absence and Cutcliffe's mind being on everything but calling plays could/should contribute to UT's offense being a bit out-of-sync. With or without P.J. Hill, Wisky's identity of running the ball won't change, with Bielema's approach likely being that of attacking a UT defense minus Demonte' Bolden and Rico McCoy. When Wisky puts the ball in the air, the lack of a true big-play threat figures to minimize the damage against a suspect UT secondary.

Waiting for +3 with Arizona St.

[rjt721]

1* Arizona St. +2.5

[pags11]

GL the rest of the bowl season rjt...great work this year my friend...

[rjt721]

Thanks pags. Nice to see you around here.

Sun Bowl, Dec. 31, USF v. Oregon

2* Oregon Team Total UNDER 24 (-115): Aided by 3 Oregon St. turnovers and the emotions of a rivalry game, the Dixon-less Ducks exploded for 31 points in their last game, but they'll have a difficult time approaching a mid-20s output here. Roper looked adequate against OSU, but there's a reason he started the season No. 4 on the depth chart. His lack of experience, coupled with facing a talented USF secondary and George Selvie rushing the QB off the edge, will prove difficult for Oregon to move the ball through the air. The Ducks' success on offense all lies with Jonathan Stewart. Just as USF loaded up the box in holding rushing leader Kevin Smith to 55 yards, Stewart should expect similar attention.

International Bowl, Jan. 5, Ball St. v. Rutgers

2* Ball St./Rutgers OVER 60: Playing to improve his draft stock, Ray Rice should have a field day against State's 98th ranked run defense. Nate Davis is an NFL talent, and a Ball State squad familiar with high-scoring affairs playing in the MAC will do enough offensively to push the total over.

[rjt721]

1* Michigan St. Team Total OVER 27 (-115)

[rjt721]

Bowls: 4-3, +1.9

Humanitarian Bowl, Dec. 31, Georgia Tech v. Fresno St.

2* Fresno St. +6 (-103): (Matchbook) Love Pat Hill as a dog with a month to prepare. Tech’s a team in transition with Tenuta stepping in as head coach before Paul Johnson takes over following the bowl game. It’s also a GT team that had aspirations of winning the ACC and playing in a BCS bowl. A disappointing season and the prospect of facing Fresno in a pre-Jan. 1 bowl game in Boise is little consolation, and motivation is a concern. Fresno’s on the complete opposite end of the spectrum following a nightmare 4-8 record last season. Playing a BCS-conference opponent, as well as the opportunity to represent the WAC, which has seen Boise lose outright as a double-digit dog and Nevada get smoked by New Mexico, provides plenty of motivation. Tashard Choice is a great back, but Taylor Bennett’s shown nothing at QB. Without Calvin Johnson around to bail them out, Tech’s offense has become completely one-dimensional. RB Ryan Mathews’ injury hurts, but the huge coaching advantage, QB advantage, motivation factor and edge in the return game make the 6 points too good to pass up in a game I see Fresno being competitive throughout.

Chick-fil-A Bowl, Dec. 31, Clemson v. Auburn

2* Clemson/Auburn UNDER 46.5: Wanted to play the Auburn side, but can’t count on AU doing anything constructive offensively, even more so with the Tigers' OC situation. Not sure there’s a more overrated pair of backs than Clemson's Davis and Spiller, both of whom have done next to nothing against defenses capable of stopping the run, and Auburn certainly fits that profile. Similarly, Cullen Harper may be the single most overrated QB in the country, his numbers padded by performances against the likes of LA-Monroe, Furman and C. Michigan, but that doesn’t change the fact he failed to make enough plays in losses to GT, VT, and BC. Auburn’s offense kept the Tigers from the top of the SEC, but the defense is still a powerhouse. Both teams will struggle to run the ball, and big plays in the passing game figure to be few and far between, making a low-scoring game featuring several punts likely.

Will probably add Colorado + for Sunday.

Good luck.

[rjt721]

2* Colorado +5 (BetJamaica)

[manny24]

just got on colorado +4. let's cash this bitch!

[rjt721]

just got on colorado +4. let's cash this bitch!

Tough one. Buffs didn't show up in the 1st Q... cost them the game.

Adding:

1* Indiana/Oklahoma St. OVER 68.5
1* Georgia Tech/Fresno St. UNDER 54.5 (-105)

Full Monday card:

2* Clemson/Auburn U 46.5
2* Oregon TT U 24
2* Fresno +6
1* Fresno/GT U 54.5
1* Indiana/Okie St. O 68.5

Good luck.

[BuddyBear]

I would like to play some games tomorrow and new years day but betting on holidays/family functions is a sign of a gambling problem. Trying to avoid the games altogether but do like FSU +6 tomorrow....

I am starting to like USC -13.5 too rjt....

[rjt721]

I would like to play some games tomorrow and new years day but betting on holidays/family functions is a sign of a gambling problem. Trying to avoid the games altogether but do like FSU +6 tomorrow....

I hear ya. I won't be around to watch any of the games tomorrow. There are definitely more important things.

Best of luck, BB.

[rjt721]

5* Michigan/Florida OVER 59:

2004 Rose Bowl: Texas 38 pts., and Vince Young responsible for 372 yards of total offense and 5 TDs.

Ohio State: Buckeyes' offense, led by Troy Smith, put up 37, 25, 42 pts. respectively from '04-06.

Appalachian State: 34 pts. on 387 yards of total offense.

Oregon: 32 pts. in the 1st half alone, over 600 yards of total offense for the game.

Michigan's troubles against the spread offense and mobile QBs in particular are well-documented, and a match up against Tebow and the rest of the Gator's offense, likely the best and most explosive offense they've faced during this span, presents the worst imaginable opponent. After those two losses to App. St. and Oregon, the defense has performed quite well. However, that success can be attributed to playing a Big 10 schedule and isn't an indication the unit is any more prepared to defend an offense the likes of UF. Other than LB Shawn Crable, UM's defense lacks the team speed to hang with the UF's athletes, primarily Harvin and Caldwell. Urban Meyer's developed into the best playcaller in the country, and with five weeks to prepare for this game the Gators will move the ball at will. As inspired as the Wolverines' defense will be in the last games for Lloyd Carr and DC Ron English, they're incapable of stopping the Gators' offense.

Florida will do their part in contributing to the total clearing 59, but Michigan, too, will have success offensively. Coming into the season, all the talk was about UM's offense with Henne, Hart and Long returning and a talented receiving core led by Manningham and Arrington. Many variables, injuries to Henne and Hart the primary reason, have led to the offense not achieving what was expected. The six weeks off since the OSU game has benefited no one more than Henne, his shoulder injury sustained midway through the season more serious than initially thought. Well, the shoulder injury is no longer a concern. Similarly, Hart is also now fully healthy, and the offense is playing for pride after the senior class is 0-4 against OSU and 0-3 in bowl games, their beloved coach in his final game, and in the case of Henne, Hart, Long and likely Manningham, they're playing to improve their draft stock. This is still one of the most talented offenses in the country.

31 pts. allowed to Troy, 37 to Kentucky, 42 to Georgia. It's been overshadowed by the success of the offense and Tebow's historically great season, but the Gators' defense is terrible. Just as UF's offense matches up well with UM's defense, Michigan's offense poses many problems for Florida's defense. After losing both starting corners and S Reggie Nelson from last season's national championship squad, UF's young secondary is the primary weakness. Mario Manningham is arguably the best deep threat in college football, and prior to a poor showing against OSU the hottest receiver in the nation. Adrian Arrington and Greg Mathews are very good in their own right, both capable of taking advantage of Florida's holes in the secondary. Success throwing the ball down the field will open up the running game for Mike Hart, the leading rusher in CFB before injuries slowed him down.

It will probably fall short, as Florida's offense is too explosive, but Michigan's offense is more than capable of exposing a mediocre Gators' defense and keeping the the Wolverines in the game.

Florida 45
Michigan 37

Others:

3* Arkansas +3.5

2* Hawaii +8

1* Hawaii ML +250

1* Illinois +14 (-115)

Final Tuesday card:

5* Michigan/Florida OVER 59 (Max. play)
3* Arkansas +3.5
2* Tennessee/Wisconsin UNDER 59
2* Hawaii +8
1* Hawaii ML +250
1* Illinois +14

[cashflow50]

just love your hawaii and illinois play rj.
gl today rj

[onlooker]

I am with you on the Hawaii ML, just haven't put it in yet. Looking for a Georgia surge. The best I see at the moment for me out here, is +240. 0-5 on my Bowl Underdog ML plays, but at least I am just sticking to them. So the losses don't hurt that much.

[rjt721]

just love your hawaii and illinois play rj.
gl today rj

Thanks man. Hopefully Hawaii and the Illini don't pull and Arkansas.

Good luck.

I am with you on the Hawaii ML, just haven't put it in yet. Looking for a Georgia surge. The best I see at the moment for me out here, is +240. 0-5 on my Bowl Underdog ML plays, but at least I am just sticking to them. So the losses don't hurt that much.

Yeah, it's tough to gauge the line movement for this game. I think Hawaii has a great shot of winning outright. People underestimate how difficult it's to defend an offense that spreads you out with 4 and 5 WR sets all night.

Good luck looker. And Kansas ML will cash for you.

[BuddyBear]

I am going to be with you on Hawaii for sure tonight. I think it is the right side and we are going to get a great effort from the Rainbows tonight...However, I am going to be on USC.

rjt check your mail in a minute....

[rjt721]

Nice of Arkansas to show up today. Big play cashes, still lose some change for the day.

Bowls: 9-10, +.70. Treading water.

2 more plays:

2* Oklahoma -7

2* Kansas/Virginia Tech UNDER 53 (-105)

Rutgers/Ball St. O 60 still pending.

That will probably do it for the season.

[nevadaside]

2* Ball St./Rutgers OVER 60: Playing to improve his draft stock, Ray Rice should have a field day against State's 98th ranked run defense. Nate Davis is an NFL talent, and a Ball State squad familiar with high-scoring affairs playing in the MAC will do enough offensively to push the total over.

rjt,
Great calls on the BSU/RTG & KU/VT Totals. Forgot to roll on this easy Over today.

Alwayz look forward to reading your in-depth write ups & using them to CASH at times.

GL in the rest of your wagering year.

[rjt721]

Thanks man, appreciate the kind words. Strange bowl season... 2-7 on sides, 8-3 totals.

Probably passing altogether on OSU/LSU tomorrow night.

Bowls: 11-11, +2.5
Season: +13.18