Please see below.
One note of caution: You will see terms used in my preview such as rush stats, and in the spread notes something like, take team X if they are a rush pick. Basically, the college game is often decided by who controls the line of scrimmage. I chart rush data for roughly 76 teams, and subtract out sacks. I obtain yards per carry data for each team's offense and defense, and use that to create a number which I compare to the spread of the game. A large enough discrepancy between this # and the spread results in a rush pick. 4 games must be played before data is useable.
NOW, I must add that the college game has changed over the years to be aligned more closely to the NFL. Between 1980-1994 only BYU and a small # of other teams were "pass types". Amazingly, blindly using rush data in those years resulted in a 58.7% win ratio, and over 62% in certain conferences, including the Ivy league at 65%, all vs. the spread. No one would EVER recommend blindly using this information. I use it only as one tool in handicapping, along with many other factors.
Since 1994, rush data for all games is about 54% correct vs. the spread. Therefore, I am very selective when using the data. Schedule difficulty can create a nice play, and just as easily can make a rush figure meaningless. In general, 1st year coaches are often "play against" material when their opponent is a rush play. Coaching changes often affect long term use of the data.
You will also see a section entitled "ACE Strategy". The group I headed up years ago went by the name of ACE. I do all the write-ups and analysis. I've kept the name ACE just to be consistent.
Anyways, I hope the preview will still be helpful to everyone here. I've enjoyed reading the work of others in this and other forums and thought I would contribute to the mix. Of course not all the predictions will come true. Bottom line: I'm not much of a baseball fan, so as the calendar turns to August I get excited about the upcoming football season. Good luck to everyone!
1. OKLAHOMA
Is it wrong of us to ask how good a coach Bob Stoops is? Injuries certainly made a difference in ’09 but even with the bowl win vs. Stanford last year we expected more. Let’s face it, the Cardinal fielded a below average defensive team yet the Sooners ran about 2 yards per carry! The young OL could be used as an excuse in September but not in December with a full season gone and a full month to prepare. Let’s see if this team can regain its place at or near the top of the NCAA. AREAS TO WATCH: Hopefully not the OL, like we (and others) pointed out in ’09. Our eyes will be on RB Murray, who ran for just 4.1 per carry. We can’t solely blame the OL for that mark. We do have a concern along the DL for ’10. The 3.1 run D is now projected to be 3.65. 2 CB’s are gone so cover ability needs to be checked as well. ACE STRATEGY: We’ve done well with the Sooners except at bowl time, going 3-2 last year. The opener vs. a somewhat decent Utah St. team gives us a chance to check the run D. FSU lost the title game to Oklahoma in their last meeting (’00) but Bowden won’t be here to remind the current team. Playing at Cincy is a nice test for the new secondary, plus a test for the pass rush w/out McCoy. How is RB Murray progressing so far? Oklahoma played well in the loss to Texas in ’09. As usual this will probably be for the South title. While we’ve always enjoyed being in Las Vegas with fans of both teams on game day, we’re thrilled to be missing this one for a far more important personal event. The tougher conference games after that are at Missouri (Tigers waiting for revenge), at A&M (just 3-5 SU last 8), and maybe at either Baylor or OK St. at the end of the year, with the Bears improved and the Cowboys usually playing the Sooners decently at home. BOTTOM LINE: Oklahoma is 61-2 SU as a host. We’re saying they beat Cincy, and we’re giving them the edge vs. Texas, but not by that much, especially if the D is not quite as stout as the ’09 group. We’re calling for 11-1 (split of Missouri/A&M) but 10-2 would not surprise us at all, and if Murray doesn’t revert to form, 9-3 is also possible. SPREAD NOTES: + 9/18 vs. AF. + 10/16 vs. ISU if off a SU loss and if they are a rush pick. + 11/13 vs. TT if off a SU loss.
2. TEXAS
’09 was an adventure late in the year. Texas was referee aided to get to the title game, but once there, extremely unlucky to lose accurate Colt McCoy early, especially considering Alabama’s poor 1st quarter game plan. That’s old news now, and the team most coveted by at least 4 conferences hopes to return to the title game despite losing McCoy and some very strong defensive players. AREAS TO WATCH: Despite the graduation losses Texas will easily reload, as we think the incoming class is suburb! It’s time for the run O to improve, and we think it does, from 4.15 to 4.7. PK Lawrence is gone and his 24-27 performance may be missed. Like Oklahoma, Texas is nearly unbeatable at home. ACE STRATEGY: We’re just slightly above 50% the past few years after going 1-2 in ’09. We’ll watch the run game and kicking game early, noting that once the ’10 stats kick in (4 games) Texas will remain + when a rush pick as always (14-6 lately). Conflict exists in the trends 9/18 at TT but Texas should be able to win this and move to 4-0 pre-Oklahoma. The history is nearly dead even the past 30, but Texas has played well in this series when placed in the dog role. Texas is 25-7 ATS off a bye week. The bye this year is well-placed between Oklahoma and at Nebraska. Amazingly, 5 of the final 6 games are at home. The game at K St could be tricky but the home games should all be wins. BOTTOM LINE: 10 or 11 wins. Oklahoma has a tougher conference set-up due to byes and home vs. road games, but the Sooners get the edge in the head to head matchup. If Texas wins however, they are likely to represent the South in the title game. Texas remains a top 10 team for ’10. SPREAD NOTES: + as a rush pick 10/23 vs. ISU and 10/30 vs. Baylor.
3. TEXAS A&M
A&M made it to a bowl game last year but until the defense improves a minor bowl game is all that will be available. With a strong backfield and 9 returning defensive starters might A&M challenge in the Big 12 South? AREAS TO WATCH: Defensive #’s. The ’08 #’s were 5.25 run D, 66% pass D, 37.4 point D. The ’09 #’s were 4.75 run D, 62% pass D and a 36+ conference point D. With a strong new DC (from Air Force), we’re projecting a 4.2 run D and a 60% pass D. Given the easy early schedule, we’ll look vs. if not a rush pick after the crossover (13-7 ATS). A&M still needs to improve when a road dog (18-36 ATS). ACE STRATEGY: After a poor 2-5 in ’08 we were 1-0 in ’09, moving the recent record to 17-8. Games 1-3 are easy and MUST show an improved point D. A&M is 4-18 ATS in their initial road game, but they’ll have 12 days to prepare for this one. They’ll also want revenge vs. Arkansas in Arlington, but the D had better be ready. The rest of the schedule looks awfully tough to call right now. They will host 4 bowl teams and face a pair of non-bowl teams on the road before the finale at Texas. Once again, the defense will determine if this team takes the next step. BOTTOM LINE: We think they are at least a bit improved, but they may need to beat Nebraska late to get to 7-5. 8 wins will be possible if the rush data improves. 6 wins will be in play if the point D does not improve. SPREAD NOTES: + as a rush pick 11/6 hosting Oklahoma. We’ll wait on the rest, looking vs. 1st when not a rush pick but looking for other home +’s when possible.
4T. TEXAS TECH
Now what? The controversial Mike Leach era is over, and veteran HC Tuberville takes over. It’s been 18 years since the Red Raiders have finished with a losing record, and there’s enough talent on board (along with the usual soft out of conference schedule) to make it 19 years. Can Tommy avoid the distractions and win even with a system change? AREAS TO WATCH: On offense, the run to pass ratio. The NCAA average is 55-45, up from 58-42 a decade ago. Here the average has been 33-67. Tommy would like to establish the run. Only the OL is a bit thin. On defense, TT sacked others an excellent 41 times in 12 games, but over 80% of those sacks are from players no longer on the team. How will this affect the overall defense? ACE STRATEGY: As we have said here in the past, TT has had some excellent long running trends that have enabled us to be + for a long time here. We are 14-4 ATS the last 18, and well over 60% prior to that. Trends relevant to TT games went 27-10 in ’09. We’re praying that our long term trends hold up, but certainly come into ’10 scared. SMU had enough key graduation losses to predict TT wins SU, but even though the host Texas, TT may not be quite ready to win SU in game #3. ISU has defensive issues. Can TT survive at ISU and perhaps start a mini win streak with Baylor (neutral site) and OK St. (at home) next? The next 3 are tricky, beginning with BB road games at Colorado and A&M. Can they split these before facing Missouri? Games 11-12 are strangely non-conference affairs. What will the motivation be like to face Weber St. and Houston? BOTTOM LINE: 7-5, with 8-4 in play if the coaching transition is a smooth one. They can’t slip up early, and must split at ISU and vs. Baylor to avoid major doubts. Go trends, go! SPREAD NOTES: - as a DD RF 10/2 at ISU. – as a RF vs. Colorado 10/23. – with line setting clues (if there is a line) 11/20 vs. Weber St. (TT just played Oklahoma). + vs. Houston 11/27 if TT is off a SU win and if Houston has to play in the Conference USA title game the very next week (TT 1 point loss vs. Houston in ’10).
4T. OKLAHOMA STATE
9-3 was not what the Cowboys wanted, but after losing a stud LB in August ’09, having RB Hunter banged up all year, and then losing WR Bryant due to suspension 9-3 was not all that bad. We cashed the #1 OVER play, barely, but the team was exposed without their star WR. It seemed like OK St was building toward a big ’09, and now must regroup after losing approximately 15 starters. How far might they fall? AREAS TO WATCH: Almost everything! They have a new OC, just 1 returning OL, and some uncertainty at QB. Only 1 starter on offense is a SR. RB Hunter returns 100% so we’re keeping the run O projection high thus far. DC Young (2nd year here) is strong, but the team loses 6 of its top 7 tacklers and is thin almost everywhere. We have the pass D% moving up to 60%. ACE STRATEGY: Oops! After going 3-1 in ’08 we were 0-5 in ’09. Certainly we have much to check before knowing if they have value or not in ’10. They stay home games 1-4. Troy and Tulsa will be nice tests for their defense, but should also be a good opportunity to see how RB Hunter is doing, as even with his raw OL these defenses are not up to BCS standards. OK St. held on to beat A&M last year. The Cowboy offense vs. the A&M defense will be the matchup we will study prior to this game. The Cowboys have played better of late hosting Nebraska. This figures to be an interesting game. Playing at K St the following week won’t be easy. The Cowboys figure to lose at Texas, but games 11-12 are at Kansas (good history) and hosting Oklahoma (close, but usually losses). We figure they may need to win at least one of these games despite the easier early schedule. BOTTOM LINE: This is a young team that could stumble early with all the newcomers. We think that to get to 6-6 they need to split games hosting Nebraska, at K St, hosting Baylor and at Kansas. DC Young might pull this off if the offense can help just a little bit. They opened at 7 wins, and that looms as plenty of value for the unders. SPREAD NOTES: - if not a rush pick 10/30 at K St.
4T. BAYLOR
How much does one player matter? Maybe at Baylor, more than at any other program! As a Frosh QB, Robert Griffin had his team averaging 25 per game in conference play. Without him, Baylor scored 14 or less in 7 of 8 conference contests. Griffin returns but 4 of 5 top tacklers do not, meaning he’ll need to do even more this time around. AREAS TO WATCH: The pass D%. It’s been in the 60’s the past 3 years and we have it staying there in ’10. The run O crossed 5 per carry (corrected of course) in ’08 but without Griffin was just 3.7/105. Where will it fall in ’10? ACE STRATEGY: After going 3-0, all + plays in ’08, we were 1-3 last year. Perhaps we should have stayed on the sideline. It’s huge for Baylor to open with a pair of “easy” games, giving Griffin and the replacements on D to get acclimated. Beating TCU at TCU is unlikely but it will be interesting if they can scare the Frogs. A crucial game at Rice is next, and a win here could help Baylor achieve its 1st bowl game since ’94. Hosting Kansas and playing TT on a neutral site will amazingly give the Bears a shot at 5-1 SU! Other possible good games include at Colorado (Griffin beat them in OT in ’08), and hosting K St (1-2 SU as a host) and A&M (another Griffin win in ’08, 41-21). BOTTOM LINE: 6-6? It may require an upset, and it WILL require defensive help at times, but if they can win at Rice and steal one at Colorado or in mid-November 6-6 can be achieved. SPREAD NOTES: We will have no official tabs right now. The unofficial tabs are to look at the dog either way 9/25 at Rice, and hope for a + 11/13 hosting A&M (Aggies between home games of Oklahoma/Nebraska). Let’s make that one official if Baylor is a HU and a rush pick.
One note of caution: You will see terms used in my preview such as rush stats, and in the spread notes something like, take team X if they are a rush pick. Basically, the college game is often decided by who controls the line of scrimmage. I chart rush data for roughly 76 teams, and subtract out sacks. I obtain yards per carry data for each team's offense and defense, and use that to create a number which I compare to the spread of the game. A large enough discrepancy between this # and the spread results in a rush pick. 4 games must be played before data is useable.
NOW, I must add that the college game has changed over the years to be aligned more closely to the NFL. Between 1980-1994 only BYU and a small # of other teams were "pass types". Amazingly, blindly using rush data in those years resulted in a 58.7% win ratio, and over 62% in certain conferences, including the Ivy league at 65%, all vs. the spread. No one would EVER recommend blindly using this information. I use it only as one tool in handicapping, along with many other factors.
Since 1994, rush data for all games is about 54% correct vs. the spread. Therefore, I am very selective when using the data. Schedule difficulty can create a nice play, and just as easily can make a rush figure meaningless. In general, 1st year coaches are often "play against" material when their opponent is a rush play. Coaching changes often affect long term use of the data.
You will also see a section entitled "ACE Strategy". The group I headed up years ago went by the name of ACE. I do all the write-ups and analysis. I've kept the name ACE just to be consistent.
Anyways, I hope the preview will still be helpful to everyone here. I've enjoyed reading the work of others in this and other forums and thought I would contribute to the mix. Of course not all the predictions will come true. Bottom line: I'm not much of a baseball fan, so as the calendar turns to August I get excited about the upcoming football season. Good luck to everyone!
1. OKLAHOMA
Is it wrong of us to ask how good a coach Bob Stoops is? Injuries certainly made a difference in ’09 but even with the bowl win vs. Stanford last year we expected more. Let’s face it, the Cardinal fielded a below average defensive team yet the Sooners ran about 2 yards per carry! The young OL could be used as an excuse in September but not in December with a full season gone and a full month to prepare. Let’s see if this team can regain its place at or near the top of the NCAA. AREAS TO WATCH: Hopefully not the OL, like we (and others) pointed out in ’09. Our eyes will be on RB Murray, who ran for just 4.1 per carry. We can’t solely blame the OL for that mark. We do have a concern along the DL for ’10. The 3.1 run D is now projected to be 3.65. 2 CB’s are gone so cover ability needs to be checked as well. ACE STRATEGY: We’ve done well with the Sooners except at bowl time, going 3-2 last year. The opener vs. a somewhat decent Utah St. team gives us a chance to check the run D. FSU lost the title game to Oklahoma in their last meeting (’00) but Bowden won’t be here to remind the current team. Playing at Cincy is a nice test for the new secondary, plus a test for the pass rush w/out McCoy. How is RB Murray progressing so far? Oklahoma played well in the loss to Texas in ’09. As usual this will probably be for the South title. While we’ve always enjoyed being in Las Vegas with fans of both teams on game day, we’re thrilled to be missing this one for a far more important personal event. The tougher conference games after that are at Missouri (Tigers waiting for revenge), at A&M (just 3-5 SU last 8), and maybe at either Baylor or OK St. at the end of the year, with the Bears improved and the Cowboys usually playing the Sooners decently at home. BOTTOM LINE: Oklahoma is 61-2 SU as a host. We’re saying they beat Cincy, and we’re giving them the edge vs. Texas, but not by that much, especially if the D is not quite as stout as the ’09 group. We’re calling for 11-1 (split of Missouri/A&M) but 10-2 would not surprise us at all, and if Murray doesn’t revert to form, 9-3 is also possible. SPREAD NOTES: + 9/18 vs. AF. + 10/16 vs. ISU if off a SU loss and if they are a rush pick. + 11/13 vs. TT if off a SU loss.
2. TEXAS
’09 was an adventure late in the year. Texas was referee aided to get to the title game, but once there, extremely unlucky to lose accurate Colt McCoy early, especially considering Alabama’s poor 1st quarter game plan. That’s old news now, and the team most coveted by at least 4 conferences hopes to return to the title game despite losing McCoy and some very strong defensive players. AREAS TO WATCH: Despite the graduation losses Texas will easily reload, as we think the incoming class is suburb! It’s time for the run O to improve, and we think it does, from 4.15 to 4.7. PK Lawrence is gone and his 24-27 performance may be missed. Like Oklahoma, Texas is nearly unbeatable at home. ACE STRATEGY: We’re just slightly above 50% the past few years after going 1-2 in ’09. We’ll watch the run game and kicking game early, noting that once the ’10 stats kick in (4 games) Texas will remain + when a rush pick as always (14-6 lately). Conflict exists in the trends 9/18 at TT but Texas should be able to win this and move to 4-0 pre-Oklahoma. The history is nearly dead even the past 30, but Texas has played well in this series when placed in the dog role. Texas is 25-7 ATS off a bye week. The bye this year is well-placed between Oklahoma and at Nebraska. Amazingly, 5 of the final 6 games are at home. The game at K St could be tricky but the home games should all be wins. BOTTOM LINE: 10 or 11 wins. Oklahoma has a tougher conference set-up due to byes and home vs. road games, but the Sooners get the edge in the head to head matchup. If Texas wins however, they are likely to represent the South in the title game. Texas remains a top 10 team for ’10. SPREAD NOTES: + as a rush pick 10/23 vs. ISU and 10/30 vs. Baylor.
3. TEXAS A&M
A&M made it to a bowl game last year but until the defense improves a minor bowl game is all that will be available. With a strong backfield and 9 returning defensive starters might A&M challenge in the Big 12 South? AREAS TO WATCH: Defensive #’s. The ’08 #’s were 5.25 run D, 66% pass D, 37.4 point D. The ’09 #’s were 4.75 run D, 62% pass D and a 36+ conference point D. With a strong new DC (from Air Force), we’re projecting a 4.2 run D and a 60% pass D. Given the easy early schedule, we’ll look vs. if not a rush pick after the crossover (13-7 ATS). A&M still needs to improve when a road dog (18-36 ATS). ACE STRATEGY: After a poor 2-5 in ’08 we were 1-0 in ’09, moving the recent record to 17-8. Games 1-3 are easy and MUST show an improved point D. A&M is 4-18 ATS in their initial road game, but they’ll have 12 days to prepare for this one. They’ll also want revenge vs. Arkansas in Arlington, but the D had better be ready. The rest of the schedule looks awfully tough to call right now. They will host 4 bowl teams and face a pair of non-bowl teams on the road before the finale at Texas. Once again, the defense will determine if this team takes the next step. BOTTOM LINE: We think they are at least a bit improved, but they may need to beat Nebraska late to get to 7-5. 8 wins will be possible if the rush data improves. 6 wins will be in play if the point D does not improve. SPREAD NOTES: + as a rush pick 11/6 hosting Oklahoma. We’ll wait on the rest, looking vs. 1st when not a rush pick but looking for other home +’s when possible.
4T. TEXAS TECH
Now what? The controversial Mike Leach era is over, and veteran HC Tuberville takes over. It’s been 18 years since the Red Raiders have finished with a losing record, and there’s enough talent on board (along with the usual soft out of conference schedule) to make it 19 years. Can Tommy avoid the distractions and win even with a system change? AREAS TO WATCH: On offense, the run to pass ratio. The NCAA average is 55-45, up from 58-42 a decade ago. Here the average has been 33-67. Tommy would like to establish the run. Only the OL is a bit thin. On defense, TT sacked others an excellent 41 times in 12 games, but over 80% of those sacks are from players no longer on the team. How will this affect the overall defense? ACE STRATEGY: As we have said here in the past, TT has had some excellent long running trends that have enabled us to be + for a long time here. We are 14-4 ATS the last 18, and well over 60% prior to that. Trends relevant to TT games went 27-10 in ’09. We’re praying that our long term trends hold up, but certainly come into ’10 scared. SMU had enough key graduation losses to predict TT wins SU, but even though the host Texas, TT may not be quite ready to win SU in game #3. ISU has defensive issues. Can TT survive at ISU and perhaps start a mini win streak with Baylor (neutral site) and OK St. (at home) next? The next 3 are tricky, beginning with BB road games at Colorado and A&M. Can they split these before facing Missouri? Games 11-12 are strangely non-conference affairs. What will the motivation be like to face Weber St. and Houston? BOTTOM LINE: 7-5, with 8-4 in play if the coaching transition is a smooth one. They can’t slip up early, and must split at ISU and vs. Baylor to avoid major doubts. Go trends, go! SPREAD NOTES: - as a DD RF 10/2 at ISU. – as a RF vs. Colorado 10/23. – with line setting clues (if there is a line) 11/20 vs. Weber St. (TT just played Oklahoma). + vs. Houston 11/27 if TT is off a SU win and if Houston has to play in the Conference USA title game the very next week (TT 1 point loss vs. Houston in ’10).
4T. OKLAHOMA STATE
9-3 was not what the Cowboys wanted, but after losing a stud LB in August ’09, having RB Hunter banged up all year, and then losing WR Bryant due to suspension 9-3 was not all that bad. We cashed the #1 OVER play, barely, but the team was exposed without their star WR. It seemed like OK St was building toward a big ’09, and now must regroup after losing approximately 15 starters. How far might they fall? AREAS TO WATCH: Almost everything! They have a new OC, just 1 returning OL, and some uncertainty at QB. Only 1 starter on offense is a SR. RB Hunter returns 100% so we’re keeping the run O projection high thus far. DC Young (2nd year here) is strong, but the team loses 6 of its top 7 tacklers and is thin almost everywhere. We have the pass D% moving up to 60%. ACE STRATEGY: Oops! After going 3-1 in ’08 we were 0-5 in ’09. Certainly we have much to check before knowing if they have value or not in ’10. They stay home games 1-4. Troy and Tulsa will be nice tests for their defense, but should also be a good opportunity to see how RB Hunter is doing, as even with his raw OL these defenses are not up to BCS standards. OK St. held on to beat A&M last year. The Cowboy offense vs. the A&M defense will be the matchup we will study prior to this game. The Cowboys have played better of late hosting Nebraska. This figures to be an interesting game. Playing at K St the following week won’t be easy. The Cowboys figure to lose at Texas, but games 11-12 are at Kansas (good history) and hosting Oklahoma (close, but usually losses). We figure they may need to win at least one of these games despite the easier early schedule. BOTTOM LINE: This is a young team that could stumble early with all the newcomers. We think that to get to 6-6 they need to split games hosting Nebraska, at K St, hosting Baylor and at Kansas. DC Young might pull this off if the offense can help just a little bit. They opened at 7 wins, and that looms as plenty of value for the unders. SPREAD NOTES: - if not a rush pick 10/30 at K St.
4T. BAYLOR
How much does one player matter? Maybe at Baylor, more than at any other program! As a Frosh QB, Robert Griffin had his team averaging 25 per game in conference play. Without him, Baylor scored 14 or less in 7 of 8 conference contests. Griffin returns but 4 of 5 top tacklers do not, meaning he’ll need to do even more this time around. AREAS TO WATCH: The pass D%. It’s been in the 60’s the past 3 years and we have it staying there in ’10. The run O crossed 5 per carry (corrected of course) in ’08 but without Griffin was just 3.7/105. Where will it fall in ’10? ACE STRATEGY: After going 3-0, all + plays in ’08, we were 1-3 last year. Perhaps we should have stayed on the sideline. It’s huge for Baylor to open with a pair of “easy” games, giving Griffin and the replacements on D to get acclimated. Beating TCU at TCU is unlikely but it will be interesting if they can scare the Frogs. A crucial game at Rice is next, and a win here could help Baylor achieve its 1st bowl game since ’94. Hosting Kansas and playing TT on a neutral site will amazingly give the Bears a shot at 5-1 SU! Other possible good games include at Colorado (Griffin beat them in OT in ’08), and hosting K St (1-2 SU as a host) and A&M (another Griffin win in ’08, 41-21). BOTTOM LINE: 6-6? It may require an upset, and it WILL require defensive help at times, but if they can win at Rice and steal one at Colorado or in mid-November 6-6 can be achieved. SPREAD NOTES: We will have no official tabs right now. The unofficial tabs are to look at the dog either way 9/25 at Rice, and hope for a + 11/13 hosting A&M (Aggies between home games of Oklahoma/Nebraska). Let’s make that one official if Baylor is a HU and a rush pick.
