College Football Odds: 2010 'Under' Teams
Bo Pelini and the Nebraska Cornhuskers were an 'under' bettor's best friend in 2009 thanks to defense. The defensive unit will again be strong in Lincoln, but will that necessarily translate into winning wagers on the low side of the total? College football oddsmakers aren't that easily fooled with the betting market driving the numbers as much as the offenses and defenses. Here are a few teams to watch for the 2010 season.
Bo Pelini was my savior last year. His Nebraska Cornhuskers finally had their renaissance season at 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS.
Even better, their combination of impenetrable defense and mediocre offense took the 'under' to an 11-3 record at the pay window. Getting on the Cornhusker bandwagon early allowed me to squeeze a profit out of what otherwise was a flat marketplace.
If only I could have gotten on board even earlier – say, before the season even started. But how do you go about identifying the likeliest candidates to go 'under' the posted total?
It’s not as simple as picking out the best defensive teams in college football like Nebraska. You also have to take the market into account. Let’s start with a simple maxim: Buy low, sell high. We should be able to get some value out of last year’s most profitable 'over' teams as they plummet back to earth, right?
Maybe. Here are the very best 'over' teams from 2003-2008, followed by how they fared against the total the following season.
2003
Texas Tech 11-1; 3-6
USC 10-2; 3-6-1
Texas A&M 9-2; 6-5
2004
Michigan State 9-2; 5-6
Utah 9-2; 6-5
Kansas State 8-2; 8-3
Nevada 8-2; 7-4
2005
Texas 10-1-1; 5-6
UCLA 9-2; 2-10
2006
Rice 10-2; 10-1
Marshall 9-2; 4-7
Hawaii 9-3; 3-7
2007
Rice 10-1; 9-3
Central Michigan 9-2-1; 6-5
Michigan State 9-3; 6-6
2008
Oklahoma 11-1; 2-10
Utah 9-2; 3-8-1
There are some very promising reversals of fortune here, but Rice and Kansas State spoiled the bunch. And you’d have to have been a little crazy to play the 'under' on those teams anyway, given their penchant at the time for video-game offense and invisible defense.
The Wildcats have since reformed under coach Bill Snyder, making the 'under' a profitable 8-3 in 2009 after going 3-8 in 2008. The Owls remain defensively inept with the 'over' checking in at 8-4 last year.
The top three 'over' teams from 2009 were North Carolina State (10-2), Connecticut (9-3) and Oregon (9-3). The Wolfpack should be much better on defense this year with linebacker Nate Irving returning from a near-fatal car accident. The Huskies, however, are expected to pass the ball more this year, and their secondary is suspect. As for the Ducks, the 'over' was 13-11-2 in Chip Kelly’s two years as offensive co-ordinator before he took the head coaching position last year and led the team to the Rose Bowl.
Let’s take a slightly different tack. Perhaps we can reverse engineer some hot 'under' candidates by taking the best from 2004-2009 and compare their numbers to how they did the previous year. To keep the format clear, we’ll continue to list the 'over' records – the first numbers listed are from the year before.
2004
Florida State 4-7; 1-10
Georgia Tech 4-5-2; 2-8
Wisconsin 7-4; 3-8
2005
N.C. State 5-5; 1-9
Eastern Michigan 7-2; 2-9
South Florida 7-3; 2-8
2006
Miami-Florida 4-7; 1-10
FIU 5-4; 2-10
Stanford 5-5; 2-10
UCLA 9-2; 2-10
2007
USC 4-8; 2-10
Northern Illinois 3-8; 2-9
Vanderbilt 6-5; 2-9
2008
Tennessee 7-6; 1-10-1
Arkansas State 6-6; 2-9
WKU N/A; 2-8
2009
Oklahoma 11-1; 2-10
Nebraska 7-5; 3-10
Arizona State 3-7; 2-9
Vanderbilt 4-7-1; 2-9
Here we see how things really work. Some teams flip wildly from 'over' to 'under', some are falling from the middle of the pack, and some are already 'under' teams who go even lower the following year. Which teams would you hang your hat on?
I’d definitely be looking at the teams that have delivered results over a longer period of time. Vanderbilt jumps right out; the Commodores have been struggling to overcome the SEC’s tough defenses, and they’re in somewhat of an upheaval this year with Robbie Caldwell taking over for Bobby Johnson just last week following his sudden retirement.
Arizona State (4-9 in 2007, 4-6-2 in 2006) has also been money for 'under' bettors; they’re shifting to a spread offense this year under new coordinator Noel Mazzone, but that should take some time to click, and the Sun Devils offensive line is spotty at best. That, plus their stout defense, equals a viable 'under' candidate for one more year.
So there are my three picks: North Carolina State trending down, and Vanderbilt and Arizona State likely to trend up but remain profitable. We’ll see if the betting odds agree through the course of the 2010 season.
Bo Pelini and the Nebraska Cornhuskers were an 'under' bettor's best friend in 2009 thanks to defense. The defensive unit will again be strong in Lincoln, but will that necessarily translate into winning wagers on the low side of the total? College football oddsmakers aren't that easily fooled with the betting market driving the numbers as much as the offenses and defenses. Here are a few teams to watch for the 2010 season.
Bo Pelini was my savior last year. His Nebraska Cornhuskers finally had their renaissance season at 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS.
Even better, their combination of impenetrable defense and mediocre offense took the 'under' to an 11-3 record at the pay window. Getting on the Cornhusker bandwagon early allowed me to squeeze a profit out of what otherwise was a flat marketplace.
If only I could have gotten on board even earlier – say, before the season even started. But how do you go about identifying the likeliest candidates to go 'under' the posted total?
It’s not as simple as picking out the best defensive teams in college football like Nebraska. You also have to take the market into account. Let’s start with a simple maxim: Buy low, sell high. We should be able to get some value out of last year’s most profitable 'over' teams as they plummet back to earth, right?
Maybe. Here are the very best 'over' teams from 2003-2008, followed by how they fared against the total the following season.
2003
Texas Tech 11-1; 3-6
USC 10-2; 3-6-1
Texas A&M 9-2; 6-5
2004
Michigan State 9-2; 5-6
Utah 9-2; 6-5
Kansas State 8-2; 8-3
Nevada 8-2; 7-4
2005
Texas 10-1-1; 5-6
UCLA 9-2; 2-10
2006
Rice 10-2; 10-1
Marshall 9-2; 4-7
Hawaii 9-3; 3-7
2007
Rice 10-1; 9-3
Central Michigan 9-2-1; 6-5
Michigan State 9-3; 6-6
2008
Oklahoma 11-1; 2-10
Utah 9-2; 3-8-1
There are some very promising reversals of fortune here, but Rice and Kansas State spoiled the bunch. And you’d have to have been a little crazy to play the 'under' on those teams anyway, given their penchant at the time for video-game offense and invisible defense.
The Wildcats have since reformed under coach Bill Snyder, making the 'under' a profitable 8-3 in 2009 after going 3-8 in 2008. The Owls remain defensively inept with the 'over' checking in at 8-4 last year.
The top three 'over' teams from 2009 were North Carolina State (10-2), Connecticut (9-3) and Oregon (9-3). The Wolfpack should be much better on defense this year with linebacker Nate Irving returning from a near-fatal car accident. The Huskies, however, are expected to pass the ball more this year, and their secondary is suspect. As for the Ducks, the 'over' was 13-11-2 in Chip Kelly’s two years as offensive co-ordinator before he took the head coaching position last year and led the team to the Rose Bowl.
Let’s take a slightly different tack. Perhaps we can reverse engineer some hot 'under' candidates by taking the best from 2004-2009 and compare their numbers to how they did the previous year. To keep the format clear, we’ll continue to list the 'over' records – the first numbers listed are from the year before.
2004
Florida State 4-7; 1-10
Georgia Tech 4-5-2; 2-8
Wisconsin 7-4; 3-8
2005
N.C. State 5-5; 1-9
Eastern Michigan 7-2; 2-9
South Florida 7-3; 2-8
2006
Miami-Florida 4-7; 1-10
FIU 5-4; 2-10
Stanford 5-5; 2-10
UCLA 9-2; 2-10
2007
USC 4-8; 2-10
Northern Illinois 3-8; 2-9
Vanderbilt 6-5; 2-9
2008
Tennessee 7-6; 1-10-1
Arkansas State 6-6; 2-9
WKU N/A; 2-8
2009
Oklahoma 11-1; 2-10
Nebraska 7-5; 3-10
Arizona State 3-7; 2-9
Vanderbilt 4-7-1; 2-9
Here we see how things really work. Some teams flip wildly from 'over' to 'under', some are falling from the middle of the pack, and some are already 'under' teams who go even lower the following year. Which teams would you hang your hat on?
I’d definitely be looking at the teams that have delivered results over a longer period of time. Vanderbilt jumps right out; the Commodores have been struggling to overcome the SEC’s tough defenses, and they’re in somewhat of an upheaval this year with Robbie Caldwell taking over for Bobby Johnson just last week following his sudden retirement.
Arizona State (4-9 in 2007, 4-6-2 in 2006) has also been money for 'under' bettors; they’re shifting to a spread offense this year under new coordinator Noel Mazzone, but that should take some time to click, and the Sun Devils offensive line is spotty at best. That, plus their stout defense, equals a viable 'under' candidate for one more year.
So there are my three picks: North Carolina State trending down, and Vanderbilt and Arizona State likely to trend up but remain profitable. We’ll see if the betting odds agree through the course of the 2010 season.