I perused another thread regarding this game and I just had an inclination to study it a bit more.
Here are some musings concerning this particular match-up:
I can't fvcking wait for football to start again, suffice to say.
Best of luck, and if anyone has any additional information that they could share it would be much appreciated.
Here are some musings concerning this particular match-up:
- Rich Rodriguez, essentially, has been moving gradually towards the base 3-3-5 stack that he used at WVU. Now, it will be a bit more pronounced on standard downs, but it has been well represented with the percentage of odd-man sets seen from '08-'09, and with the arbitrary nature of the "Spur/Hero/Bandit/Lobo" or "what-have-you-position" seen in the 2nd-level. Mike Martin & Ryan Van Bergen will be de-facto DEs, and William Campbell, the '0'.
- It's not entirely just to say that the 3-3-5 will naturally be vulnerable to the run, as Jeff Casteel has been running it with aplomb for the last decade at WVU, allowing 3.7 per/carry last season, and yielding under 16.6-yards/per-point just twice in the last 7 seasons. Greg Robinson appears to be the problem; not being in-synch with all of the talent at his disposal, and perhaps not coming to terms with Rod's possible tinkering in the defensive gameplan.
- Though, U-CONN had been thoroughly ripped apart defensively nearly every season when encountering Rich Rod's take on the spread option, sans the 'acceptable' effort in execution last year, allowing WVU to get 240-yds. on 40 carries en route to snatching defeat from The Jaws of Victory (WVU getting the go-ahead score with 2 minutes left). Last season the Huskies graded out as the 93rd-ranked pass defense in terms of weighted efficiency, but were ranked no lower than 62nd defensively in any metric concerning the adjusted/expected success rate for standard or passing downs in 2009. In terms of an aggregate value representing overall defensive success when adjusted for level of competition and meaningful, situational per-game data (footballoutsiders.com), one can see that U-CONN came in at a manageable rating of 54th nationally (out of 120 FBS schools); Michigan: 63rd overall, and 90th in terms of adjusted run defense.
- Michigan and U-CONN ranked 32nd & 33rd respectively in terms of overall adjusted offensive efficiency last season, but, I'm surprised to see when returning to these metrics, having forgotten, that the Huskies were 4th in the nation on passing downs (defined as 2nd-down with 8 or more yards to go, & 3rd-or-4th-down with 5 or more yards to go). This is not an outlier in the data, and there are two things to consider with this realization: former blue-chipper/Golden-Domer Zack Fraser is experienced, and, most importantly, healthy; U-CONN's offensive line returns 4 starters; they are large (avg. 312-lbs.), and they are talented with two relatively rare VHT's at LT & LG, while RG Zach Hurd & C Petrus were both 1st-team Big East last year.
- U-CONN lost 5 games by a lamentable 15 combined points in 2009, but did get up big-time to beat a much more talented South Carolina squad in their bowl game. The Huskies' two highest grades of the 2009 season came against the best analog possible for this opening match-up against Michigan (West Virginia), and the aforementioned Gamecocks. Couple that fact with their gutsy grinder of an upset against Notre Dame in South Bend last year, and the veritable short-comings of the Michigan staff that has seemed, at times, unable to properly implement a fluid gameplan, and/or consistent discipline/execution, and I see an investment opportunity that could yield early profit if one can get U-CONN at 3-even, if it does so move down closer to the start of the season.
I can't fvcking wait for football to start again, suffice to say.
Best of luck, and if anyone has any additional information that they could share it would be much appreciated.
