One in every seven NFL outdoor games played was a rain or snow game!
Here is the NFL Weather Study...
According to the study...
During the last 1473 outdoor games the average PPG was 41.4
219, or one in every seven was a Rain or Snow games.
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Because colleges are far more densely packed to the north and east in
the USA than NFL teams... it is easy to deduce that one in every 6
or even one in every 5 college games is a rain or snow game!
In the NFL study....
The average score for rain games was 37.2 = more than 4 points lower
than the 41.4 avg for outdoor games.
The average score for snow games was 37.9 = more than 4 points lower
than the 41.4 avg for outdoor games.
But here is really interesting part.... The study included warm weather fields
where the rain is warm.... ie. Tampa, Mami,AZ,San Diego,OAK, SF0, CAR, SEA.
Take those out and we are talking 7 point advantage !!!!
Why... because every knows that wet and freezing cold is totally different
from being wet and warm!
Wind
77 of the 1473 outdoor games had wind greater than 20mph
(about one per week)
The weighted average of those game totals is 35.3, more than 6 points lower
than the 41.4 avg of outdoor games.
Take out the warm field games listed above... everybody knows
that cold and windy is Soooo much more nasty than warm and windy games.
Now your 6pt wind advantage looks more like a solid nine point advantage.
Now go back and take out teams where both are the running teams...
Which will up your odds another 2 points. (can't pass in wind and rain)
Conclusions
--------------
Remebeir (look it up at covers) that it is a fact that the line before weather games never drops more than 2 or at most 3 points.
NFL
Conclusions... bet on games in cool weather towns, where at least one team is a a passing team and you should see 20 NFL games a year > 8 point net totals advantage over any sports book.
College
Even better points on College weather games, for many, many reasons...
(Poor fields compared to NFL, Rookie QBs many of which will never make the pros due to small hand and will have trouble with a wet ball.)
Should see 60+ College games a year > 10 point net totals advantage over sports books. (who again never drop totals line more than 2pts or 3pts)
----------------------------------------
How to maximize....
Find out North/South orientation of all stadiums (cross winds best adv.)
Use the Internet (http://www.wunderground.com/sports) to watch radar, wind, cross wind and rain for every college and NFL Game in real time.
Then bet heavy 20 mins before game time by watching the storms and rain
approach the stadium on 5 minute doppler radar !
What is your opinion ?
Here is the NFL Weather Study...
According to the study...
During the last 1473 outdoor games the average PPG was 41.4
219, or one in every seven was a Rain or Snow games.
------------------------------------------------------------
Because colleges are far more densely packed to the north and east in
the USA than NFL teams... it is easy to deduce that one in every 6
or even one in every 5 college games is a rain or snow game!
In the NFL study....
The average score for rain games was 37.2 = more than 4 points lower
than the 41.4 avg for outdoor games.
The average score for snow games was 37.9 = more than 4 points lower
than the 41.4 avg for outdoor games.
But here is really interesting part.... The study included warm weather fields
where the rain is warm.... ie. Tampa, Mami,AZ,San Diego,OAK, SF0, CAR, SEA.
Take those out and we are talking 7 point advantage !!!!
Why... because every knows that wet and freezing cold is totally different
from being wet and warm!
Wind
77 of the 1473 outdoor games had wind greater than 20mph
(about one per week)
The weighted average of those game totals is 35.3, more than 6 points lower
than the 41.4 avg of outdoor games.
Take out the warm field games listed above... everybody knows
that cold and windy is Soooo much more nasty than warm and windy games.
Now your 6pt wind advantage looks more like a solid nine point advantage.
Now go back and take out teams where both are the running teams...
Which will up your odds another 2 points. (can't pass in wind and rain)
Conclusions
--------------
Remebeir (look it up at covers) that it is a fact that the line before weather games never drops more than 2 or at most 3 points.
NFL
Conclusions... bet on games in cool weather towns, where at least one team is a a passing team and you should see 20 NFL games a year > 8 point net totals advantage over any sports book.
College
Even better points on College weather games, for many, many reasons...
(Poor fields compared to NFL, Rookie QBs many of which will never make the pros due to small hand and will have trouble with a wet ball.)
Should see 60+ College games a year > 10 point net totals advantage over sports books. (who again never drop totals line more than 2pts or 3pts)
----------------------------------------
How to maximize....
Find out North/South orientation of all stadiums (cross winds best adv.)
Use the Internet (http://www.wunderground.com/sports) to watch radar, wind, cross wind and rain for every college and NFL Game in real time.
Then bet heavy 20 mins before game time by watching the storms and rain
approach the stadium on 5 minute doppler radar !
What is your opinion ?
