This one is actually the "Lafayette Louisiana Bowl" tonight, due to the aftermath of Hurrican Katrina. It's not often that you get nearly a +17 on a team that runs the ball so much better than the opposition, as Arkansas State does in this situation.
I'm taking Arkansas State +16 1/2 (2 unit play)
The duo of running backs Warren and Bracey will keep the Indians in this game and most importantly, keep S Miss' offense off the field.
Eagles QB Almond will throw it often tonight, so look for Ark St to go after him and try to generate a pass rush and not worry as much about the run. Almond has been forced to carry the offense of his shoulders all year, due to their lack of consistency in the ground game.
The Indians secondary is my main concern with this play, but this team has forced turnovers throughout the year and the coaching staff does tend to make good adjustments as the game goes on.
Not that the Eagles D is overwhelming either, as they've given up a ton of yardage as well, especially in the second half of the season. They, like the Indians, have been opportunistic and forced turnovers at key points.
Ark St is by no means the better team, but they aren't much worse than S Miss, but I'll galdly snag up the more balanced club getting 16 1/2 points. The Eagles usually play close games, no matter the quality of the opponent and this trend should continue tonight.
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