Sagarin Numbers

[cowboyhater]

I've been tracking Jeff Sagarin against the spread for years and have found a scenario that produces a high percentage of winners. It has hit about 80% against the spread over the last 5 years. The plays don't come up too often, on average about 1 a week. The pick is if there is 10 point difference between what sagarin says vs what the spread is. But the kicker is the play has to be on a ROAD UNDERDOG. So far, it is 10-2(83%) this year. Here are the 12 plays so far this year. The amazing thing is that Syracuse over Louisville outright and Standford over USC outright were two of the twelve plays this year

Favorite Spread Underdog(BET ON) Hadv SagFav SagUnd SagResult Result
Texas Tech -13 Colorado 2.08 78.3 77.58 (10.20) W
Arizona -12.5 Stanford 2.93 69.69 70.3 (10.18) W
Hawaii -39.5 Utah State 2.93 79.09 53.23 (10.71) W
Southern California -40.5 Stanford 2.93 93.79 66.87 (10.65) W
Arizona State -12 Oregon State 2.93 81.92 83.97 (11.12) W
Pittsburgh -9.5 Connecticut 2.93 73.26 78.69 (12.00) W
BYU -11 Air Force 2.93 74.79 79.9 (13.18) W
Louisville -36.5 Syracuse 2.93 78.16 55.61 (11.02) W
New Mexico State -6.5 UTEP 2.93 56.03 71.14 (18.68) W
Michigan State -18.5 Bowling Green 2.93 78.62 74.01 (10.96) W
Southern California -14.5 Oregon State 2.28 80.44 79.72 (11.50) L
Hawaii -29 New Mexico State 2.08 75.09 59.44 (11.27) L

[cowboyhater]

Also, using this model, there is one game tomorrow that should be played.

Bet SMU +12.5 against Central Florida

[louisvillekid]

I've been tracking Jeff Sagarin against the spread for years and have found a scenario that produces a high percentage of winners. It has hit about 80% against the spread over the last 5 years. The plays don't come up too often, on average about 1 a week. The pick is if there is 10 point difference between what sagarin says vs what the spread is. But the kicker is the play has to be on a ROAD UNDERDOG. So far, it is 10-2(83%) this year. Here are the 12 plays so far this year. The amazing thing is that Syracuse over Louisville outright and Standford over USC outright were two of the twelve plays this year

Favorite Spread Underdog(BET ON) Hadv SagFav SagUnd SagResult Result
Texas Tech -13 Colorado 2.08 78.3 77.58 (10.20) W
Arizona -12.5 Stanford 2.93 69.69 70.3 (10.18) W
Hawaii -39.5 Utah State 2.93 79.09 53.23 (10.71) W
Southern California -40.5 Stanford 2.93 93.79 66.87 (10.65) W
Arizona State -12 Oregon State 2.93 81.92 83.97 (11.12) W
Pittsburgh -9.5 Connecticut 2.93 73.26 78.69 (12.00) W
BYU -11 Air Force 2.93 74.79 79.9 (13.18) W
Louisville -36.5 Syracuse 2.93 78.16 55.61 (11.02) W
New Mexico State -6.5 UTEP 2.93 56.03 71.14 (18.68) W
Michigan State -18.5 Bowling Green 2.93 78.62 74.01 (10.96) W
Southern California -14.5 Oregon State 2.28 80.44 79.72 (11.50) L
Hawaii -29 New Mexico State 2.08 75.09 59.44 (11.27) L

i'm confused. what did sagarin say the spread would be on these games vs. the linesmakers? also you say it has to be a 10 point difference on a road dog and the playis on the road dog, but you are saying that the Stanford and Syracuse plays were losers,or just that they were outright winners against a big spread, again i'm confused, maybe i drank to much earlier. heres what i have......

Texas Tech -13 lost straight up
Colorado

Zona -12.5 lost straight up
Stanford

Hawaii -39.5 won by 15
Utah St.

USC -40.5 lost straight up
Stanford

Ari St. -12 push
Oreg St.

Pitt -9.5 lost by 20
UConn

BYU -11 won by 25
Air Force

UofL -36.5 lost straight up
Syracuse

N. Mex St. -6.5 (this game your saying sagarin had UTEP the fav, because of the 10 point thing you mentioned)
UTEP N.Mex St won by 5

Mich St. -18.5 won by a 11 i think
Bowl. Green

USC -14.5 won by 21
Oreg St.

Hawaii -29 won by 37
N.Mex St.

[franckmtl]

SMU is playing home this weekend, so wheres the road dog in this game?