Week 12 NCAA Football Picks - The Chart

**nep1293** · 11-11-07, 10:23 PM

I bumped my minimum up to 57%. So those 55% and 56% games should win this week just to screw with me. Only 6 games fit the system so it should be a fairly relaxing week. The last month has been real frustrating. I'm ready for the season to be over, I'm mentally drained from all the tough beats.

**hhsilver** · 11-12-07, 12:40 AM

Sorry about the last couple weeks.

About your opening lines -- did you get the lines above from pinnacle soon after they made them available? I like to see what pinny opens with and I didn't have a chance to look earlier today.
thanks .

**nep1293** · 11-12-07, 07:53 AM

Originally posted by hhsilver

Sorry about the last couple weeks.

About your opening lines -- did you get the lines above from pinnacle soon after they made them available? I like to see what pinny opens with and I didn't have a chance to look earlier today.
thanks .

I got the lines while they were being added 1 by 1 to Pinnacle. They should be solid openers, unless the line moved withiin seconds of being added

**austintx05** · 11-12-07, 11:21 AM

good luck Tom, just realize that your results are by random chance

**sikballplaya24** · 11-12-07, 12:53 PM

nice nep, EVERYONE ON THURSDAY

OREGON - 13, GO BIG!!!!!!!!!! ITS FREE PLAY!!

**tblues2005** · 11-12-07, 01:17 PM

I think Oregon is a good play also at Arizona. good luck sikball.

**beaneaters** · 11-12-07, 07:05 PM

How exactly does the chart work? Are you saying that home teams favored by 6 points cover 57.62 per cent of the time? Etc, etc??
If I'm reading things right, this is cool info, and I appreciate your time. If not, please set me straight.
Also:
-- Are bold face teams the ones you are picking?
-- Is the chart just for games this season? Or does it go back longer?
-- Is it just college games, or NFL as well?
Thanks

**nep1293** · 11-12-07, 10:34 PM

Originally posted by austintx05

good luck Tom, just realize that your results are by random chance

I'm not ready to give it up yet. The last few weeks I really feel I've been getting some tough breaks and that I was on the right side some of these losses. I've definitely had more tough beats than lucky wins. I've got some ideas to make The Chart more specialized. I am still up a little on the year so that is encouraging

Originally posted by beaneaters

How exactly does the chart work? Are you saying that home teams favored by 6 points cover 57.62 per cent of the time? Etc, etc??
If I'm reading things right, this is cool info, and I appreciate your time. If not, please set me straight.
Also:
-- Are bold face teams the ones you are picking?
-- Is the chart just for games this season? Or does it go back longer?
-- Is it just college games, or NFL as well?
Thanks

You are correct.

The bolded picks are my official picks. I was using 55% as my minimum but went to 57% this week. We'll see how it goes. The information goes back 5 years, this being the 6th year of data. I post NFL as well.

**beaneaters** · 11-13-07, 04:24 AM

thanks for getting back to me nep. I appreciate the work that goes into this, and I'll make a point of looking for it in the future. Have really struggled with college ball this year, so every little bit helps.

**nep1293** · 11-13-07, 09:06 AM

I went through my data a little bit and decided to add Ball St and Notre Dame as picks. I'm trying to be more selective and really factor in recent success and not rely on the data from 5 years ago as much. Home (-5) went 8-6 in 2006 and is 13-7 this year. Hopefully this doesn't backfire on me.

That leaves Georgia, Florida St, and Idaho as the only plays above 55% that aren't plays. I might rethink them later in the week.

**pags11** · 11-13-07, 04:49 PM

GL nep...

**CrapsMyWay** · 11-13-07, 09:48 PM

Thanks for the info....Good Luck Everyone!

**taurus** · 11-14-07, 05:02 PM

good start with ball st.

**nep1293** · 11-15-07, 09:07 AM

Michigan and Idaho were added to the bolded plays. That should be it for the week. A total of 10 games, 1-0 with the Ball St win.

**bmac** · 11-15-07, 09:09 AM

If the chart would have had the Oregon line at -11 would it have made oregon a bolded pick?

**hhsilver** · 11-15-07, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by nep1293

...... Home (-5) went 8-6 in 2006 and is 13-7 this year. Hopefully this doesn't backfire on me.

.

Is this enough data on which to base conclusions?

It seems you are starting to change your system in mid-stream based on recent poor showings. Either your long term data is meaningful or it's not.
When you base a system on results like the ones you are using, I think you need a logical reason that would explain those results. Is there any reason that home -5, regardless of the teams involved, has done so well this year. Without a logical reason, I think it's just as likely that you'll hit a 7-13 stretch as another 13-7.

**nep1293** · 11-15-07, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by bmac

If the chart would have had the Oregon line at -11 would it have made oregon a bolded pick?

No, at -11 it would have swung over to Arizona at around 54%.

**nep1293** · 11-15-07, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by hhsilver

Is this enough data on which to base conclusions?

It seems you are starting to change your system in mid-stream based on recent poor showings. Either your long term data is meaningful or it's not.
When you base a system on results like the ones you are using, I think you need a logical reason that would explain those results. Is there any reason that home -5, regardless of the teams involved, has done so well this year. Without a logical reason, I think it's just as likely that you'll hit a 7-13 stretch as another 13-7.

The longterm data gave me the percent for Home (-5) which was a play based on what I was doing all season. I was just going to bump my minimum up to 57%. Overall, I'm just trying to be more selective and not completely bet the games blind based on the percents.

I don't know how much the longterm data is worth. I think adjusting midseason based on the current season is a good idea. Some of the results vary from year to year. Once enough data comes in from the current season I think that data should be factored in when making my picks. The percents do adjust slightly each week, but I think having a firm % set to make my picks might not be the best strategy long term.

Basically, certain years do seem to have trends that are solid throughout the year. Especially in NFL, some years favorites are hitting and some years the dogs are hitting. If I'm betting a lot of Dogs and by Week 9, 65% of favorites are winning then it would be stupid for me to keep betting the dogs.

It's a work in progress. Each week of data I get is helping me make the system stronger.

**tblues2005** · 11-15-07, 11:54 AM

nep,

After the year is over you should look at how your picks did go this season and figure what percentage break worked the best and then do that for next season and just make a few minor adjustments for next season and you should do even better. It will make the system even stronger.

**nep1293** · 11-15-07, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by tblues2005

nep,

After the year is over you should look at how your picks did go this season and figure what percentage break worked the best and then do that for next season and just make a few minor adjustments for next season and you should do even better. It will make the system even stronger.

I have a lot of things I'm going to look at in the offseason and that is on the list. I've had a few bad weeks but I'm certainly not giving up on this. Last year I won a good bit and through the first 7 or 8 weeks this year it was real solid. With 3 good weeks to end the year the last 4 will be forgotten.

**nep1293** · 11-18-07, 09:37 AM

Another week and more devastating losses. Lousiana Tech and especially West Virginia couldn't hold on to their 18 point leads. And the 2 over 55% picks I omitted were winners.

4-6 on the week