Odds to Win Conference/Division

**Kustac** · 05-29-10, 12:53 AM

glanced through it BigD, none jumping out right off, you want to point a few out?

**BigdaddyQH** · 05-29-10, 08:14 AM

Sure. Iowa at +300 interested me. They play both Ohio State and Wisconsin at home. In the Big East, Cincinnati and South Florida at 5/1 are worth looking at. In the ACC, if I can get Ga. Tech, the defending champions, and 5/1 to win the division and 10/1 to win the conference, I have to go with that. Ga. Tech also has Paul Johnson as head coach.

Plays I would stay away from: Alabama -200/+100. Giving 2/1 and taking even money are two terrible wagers. Anything can happen. UConn +250. Are you kidding me? Co favorites in the Big East? Miami in the ACC Costal at +125 is also a very poor wager. The odds are way too low for a conference that has Ga. Tech, UNC, and Va.Tech in it. USC at +175 and Oregon at +250 are also good to stay away from. There are some strange odds in the Pac 10. Cal at 10/1 is a nice longshot pick.

**rwsmith** · 05-29-10, 04:41 PM

florida in the east might not be a bad bet

**BigdaddyQH** · 05-29-10, 04:55 PM

BAsically you are getting 6/5. A little short for me, with everything that has been going on there. Granted Tennessee, Vandy and Kentucky will not challenge, and South Carolina is, well South Carolina, but Georgia is the big IF. If UGA plays up to their potential, they can win the SEC East.

**achewon87** · 05-29-10, 06:42 PM

I am a little shocked that you think UConn is a joke to win the Big East. I have been on this site awhile and consider you pretty sharp. I was hoping the books would drop the ball on this one. And even though I am a huge Canes fan I would have to agree with you that it is wrong to have them favored over G.Tech and V.Tech. I am shocked by FSU getting love, and Boston College getting shitted on again, FSU has been favored the last 5 yrs to win the division but were unable to do it, don't think Fisher gets it done in his 1st year. There are a few plays I would make, the Pac-10 is wide open. The Big Ten really comes down to 2 teams, Ohio State and Iowa. I will pretty much play all of the conference and divions in a month or so. The Big 12 has Texas to win, not sure they win the south. The SEC should come down to 'Bama and Florida again, but I think the play there is Auburn in the west and Georgia in the east. That is all I got right now.

**BigdaddyQH** · 05-30-10, 08:31 AM

Very interesting. To reply to some of the points you brought up. In the ACC Costal, you have Va. Tech and North Carolina at +250. That is also where Miami and Ga. Tech should be. Anyone of those four teams can win the Costal. AS FAr as the Atlantic is concerned, I can understand why Florida State is the favorite. They have the best QB in Ponder in that division, and proably in the conference. They have a lot of talent returning on offense. The defense will be a huge question mark, but will not be worse than last year's defense. By the way, Boston cillege should be at +800 to win the Conference. My error.

AS far as the SEC is concerned, I agree that Georgia is the value play in the East, but Arkansas is a better value play in the West. Auburn came in with a new gadget offense last year and started out 5-0. Then defensive coordinatior cought on and they finished the regular season at 2-5. They also must travelto Alabama. Arkansas is at a bigger price, and has the premier QB in the SEC, going into the season. They also host Alabama. If I am going to try and beat Alabama, I am going to get the best price I can.

I think that West Virginia at +300 and South Florida at +500 are much better value wagers than UConn at +250. UConn played with a lot of emotion last season because of the Howard murder. I do not see them duplicating that effort this season.

**Kustac** · 05-30-10, 09:55 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Very interesting. To reply to some of the points you brought up. In the ACC Costal, you have Va. Tech and North Carolina at +250. That is also where Miami and Ga. Tech should be. Anyone of those four teams can win the Costal. AS FAr as the Atlantic is concerned, I can understand why Florida State is the favorite. They have the best QB in Ponder in that division, and proably in the conference. They have a lot of talent returning on offense. The defense will be a huge question mark, but will not be worse than last year's defense. By the way, Boston cillege should be at +800 to win the Conference. My error. AS far as the SEC is concerned, I agree that Georgia is the value play in the East, but Arkansas is a better value play in the West. Auburn came in with a new gadget offense last year and started out 5-0. Then defensive coordinatior cought on and they finished the regular season at 2-5. They also must travelto Alabama. Arkansas is at a bigger price, and has the premier QB in the SEC, going into the season. They also host Alabama. If I am going to try and beat Alabama, I am going to get the best price I can. I think that West Virginia at +300 and South Florida at +500 are much better value wagers than UConn at +250. UConn played with a lot of emotion last season because of the Howard murder. I do not see them duplicating that effort this season.

Good points with Arkansas, I still want to take a look at the rest of their schedule, I assume you've probably done this and found it to be favorable as well

**john2153** · 05-30-10, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Very interesting. To reply to some of the points you brought up. In the ACC Costal, you have Va. Tech and North Carolina at +250. That is also where Miami and Ga. Tech should be. Anyone of those four teams can win the Costal. AS FAr as the Atlantic is concerned, I can understand why Florida State is the favorite. They have the best QB in Ponder in that division, and proably in the conference. They have a lot of talent returning on offense. The defense will be a huge question mark, but will not be worse than last year's defense. By the way, Boston cillege should be at +800 to win the Conference. My error.

AS far as the SEC is concerned, I agree that Georgia is the value play in the East, but Arkansas is a better value play in the West. Auburn came in with a new gadget offense last year and started out 5-0. Then defensive coordinatior cought on and they finished the regular season at 2-5. They also must travelto Alabama. Arkansas is at a bigger price, and has the premier QB in the SEC, going into the season. They also host Alabama. If I am going to try and beat Alabama, I am going to get the best price I can.

I think that West Virginia at +300 and South Florida at +500 are much better value wagers than UConn at +250. UConn played with a lot of emotion last season because of the Howard murder. I do not see them duplicating that effort this season.

I have to disagree with you here. After Howard was killed, Uconn lost 3 straight, all by margins of 3 pts or less, before their 4 game winning streak to close the year. And it's not like these were huge upsets. Notre Dame, Syracuse, USF, and South Carolina were all winnable games even before the Howard tragedy.

In fact, all 5 games they lost last season were by 3 pts or less. That is not going to happen again. They have many key starters returning and a favorable schedule with that sees them get the other top teams at home. I don't see why it's so ridiculous they are co-favorites preseason.

Usually no one gives Uconn any respect, so I was quite surprised to see these lines...but on Big East media day, there is no way the are predicted#1 to start the year, probably #3 or even #4.

Also, if this was 5 yrs from now, then I'd agree the Howard murder is not a factor, but most of these kids were on the team last year. That's something you don't forget. And they always give their best effort for Randy Edsall, that's not an issue.

**scarp** · 05-30-10, 11:11 AM

nebraska will only be tested by Kansas state for the north

**beefcake** · 05-30-10, 07:48 PM

ksu could be good this year

**Cookie Monster** · 05-30-10, 08:59 PM

Nebraska +100 to win north looks very good value.

**Terrapin Station** · 05-30-10, 11:51 PM

I like the odds for Washington in the Pac-10