Saturday's Front Page NCAAF Picks (Nov 3)

**Willie Bee** · 10-31-07, 10:14 AM

Notre Dame (-3) versus Navy

Game Time: 11/03/2007 02:30 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

With a 43-game winning streak coming into this game, look for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to make #44 a cover against Navy this Saturday in the shadow of Touchdown Jesus.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish enter into this contest against long time rivals Navy having won 43 straight games straight up in this series.

Notre Dame, despite being in a rebuilding year, has shown steady progress this season via a very tough schedule. With that said I think they are capable of the win and cover, especially at home where they pulled off an improbable 20-6 win against UCLA earlier this season as 21-point dogs.

The Midshipmen showed their defensive vulnerabilities last week in a loss to Delaware, getting slashed 59-52 which extended what has become a habit of getting gutted on a regular basis, having allowed five of their last seven opponents to clip them by 40-plus points. Navy's only saving grace has been their offense. This Saturday against a prepared Fighting Irish team that knows their triple option attack very well, the Middies are in trouble.

Look for Notre Dame to finally do some big offensive damage, while their decent defense keeps Navy to limited scoring opportunities. Play on Notre Dame.

Free Pick: Notre Dame -3 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 10-31-07, 10:16 AM

Florida State +6½ at Boston College

Game Time: 11/03/2007 08:00 PM -
By: Brad Diamond | playbook.com

It will be a packed house at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Mass, Saturday night, and those who have their money on Boston College minus the points will go home a bit poorer.

As we mentioned in our College Football Notes column last week, Matt Ryan is an NFL caliber quarterback and it showed in the last 2:11 of the Virginia Tech game last Thursday as the Boston College Eagles struck gold with a huge road win 14-10.

The No. 2 rated BCS club now sets up at home against the inconsistent Florida State Seminoles under aging coach Bobbie Bowden. Concerns for FSU have to be going on the ACC road where they have not played well. At home last weekend, the FSU stopped low-level ACC type Duke 25-6, accruing over 500 total yards in offense but just one touchdown. Drew Weatherford took the snaps without any relief and converted 35 of 47 passes. He will need even a better performance in the red zone to come away with a win up in Chestnut Hill.

Boston College is ranked #1 in total offense and #5 in total defense in the ACC, so Florida State will have a challenging affair no matter where the game is played. Although the 'Noles are just 4-9 ATS in ACC battles on the road, they catch the Boston College program celebrating their No. 2 rating.

The home team in this series is 0-2 SU the last two years, while Boston College is 1-5 ATS at home prior to back-to-back road encounters. Take the points with the avenging roadie.

Free Pick: Florida State +6½ (-110)

**Skankdog** · 10-31-07, 10:27 AM

Like the Nebraska play, shaking on the ND and Love BC at home against a horrible FSU offense and a very underrated BC defense.

**MOONCRICKET** · 10-31-07, 10:42 AM

hate the nebraska play, leaning toward navy, and feel like bc is a trap at 6, but im not confident enough in fsu to put any of my own money on it.

**STEELCURTAIN3288** · 10-31-07, 01:51 PM

I like BC though ND too scary and Neb I am leaning towards.

**Macdad** · 10-31-07, 04:36 PM

W.B.

Great breakdown on the Kansas game. I have no clue what to think. However, i think going back 38 games is a little much. They are playing like an elite team. You can say the same for U Conn, Rutgers, S. Florida, and Boise. I would love to see there breakdowns against there past rivals or state schools.

I saw Kansas for the first time last week. They were extremely impressive. Nebraska is terrible. I lean the other way. GL

**Mr Handicapable** · 10-31-07, 10:31 PM

I'm no Jayhawk...but I'm partial to the team that has made me so much this year! Texas is better? Kansas beat K-State on the road! The same K-State team that beat the Longhorns by 20 in Austin! Texas led Baylor 17-10 in the 4th quarter before pulling away late. The same Baylor Bear squad got hammered 58-10 by Kansas! Nebraska starts a new QB on the road against a superior team playing for BCS positioning. I'll be shocked if they don't win by 4 TDs or more!

**BuddyBear** · 10-31-07, 11:10 PM

Kind of lean toward Nebraska....but not strong enough to play.

Great writeups as usual Willie Bee.....

**rjt721** · 10-31-07, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by Willie Bee

Florida State +6½ at Boston College

Game Time: 11/03/2007 08:00 PM -
By: Brad Diamond | playbook.com

It will be a packed house at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Mass, Saturday night, and those who have their money on Boston College minus the points will go home a bit poorer.

As we mentioned in our College Football Notes column last week, Matt Ryan is an NFL caliber quarterback and it showed in the last 2:11 of the Virginia Tech game last Thursday as the Boston College Eagles struck gold with a huge road win 14-10.

The No. 2 rated BCS club now sets up at home against the inconsistent Florida State Seminoles under aging coach Bobbie Bowden. Concerns for FSU have to be going on the ACC road where they have not played well. At home last weekend, the FSU stopped low-level ACC type Duke 25-6, accruing over 500 total yards in offense but just one touchdown. Drew Weatherford took the snaps without any relief and converted 35 of 47 passes. He will need even a better performance in the red zone to come away with a win up in Chestnut Hill.

Boston College is ranked #1 in total offense and #5 in total defense in the ACC, so Florida State will have a challenging affair no matter where the game is played. Although the 'Noles are just 4-9 ATS in ACC battles on the road, they catch the Boston College program celebrating their No. 2 rating.

The home team in this series is 0-2 SU the last two years, while Boston College is 1-5 ATS at home prior to back-to-back road encounters. Take the points with the avenging roadie.

Free Pick: Florida State +6½ (-110)

I've never heard of Brad Diamond, but from what he writes it almost sounds as though he likes BC.

Why would BC be celebrating their No. 2 ranking? I mean, they were also No. 2 before last week's VT game.

This is the biggest home game of the season for BC. College ball isn't particularly big around here, so a visit from a prominent team like FSU in a prime time game is a big deal. BC will be ready to play. FSU could win this game, but it won't be because BC overlooked them or because the Eagles were "celebrating their No. 2 rating."

Needless to say, I disagree with the play.

**idontlikerocks** · 11-01-07, 12:05 AM

willie you and i are on the same page, i bet 4 college games this week and you just listed 3 of them, though i got florida st + 7, my fourth pick is michigan -4 at michigan state. good luck to you (and me)

**Willie Bee** · 11-01-07, 10:19 AM

Rocks, these aren't my plays, just posting plays from the cappers on our front page.

**Willie Bee** · 11-01-07, 10:21 AM

Arizona State Sun Devils (+7) at Oregon Ducks

Game Time: 11/03/2007 06:45 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

An incredibly big game for both the BCS and PAC-10 races, grab the points and Arizona State Saturday when the Sun Devils pay the Oregon Ducks a visit.

The Oregon Ducks got past the nemesis that was USC last week for the first time since 2001, and it was all fun and games in Eugene Saturday night. Now they get to welcome in the undefeated and sixth-ranked Arizona State Sun Devils who picked up a solid come from behind victory last week at home against California.

Pac-10 fans have been waiting for both of these clubs to hold true to their M-O and fizzle down the stretch, but that hasn’t happened as of yet. It’s only fitting that they get to square off against one another with so much at stake in the conference 10 race.

This looks to be nip and tuck the whole way through, so I feel much more comfortable with the TD in my back pocket. The key to us cashing this ticket will be upon the shoulders of the Sun Devils defense. It’s been rock solid thus far, only allowing opponents a shade under 16 PPG (seventh nationally), and has been especially nasty against the run (91 YPG). They limited a potent Cal attack to 359 total yards last week (98 rushing), and held them to just 3 of 11 on third down conversions. If they contain RB Jonathan Stewart and limit QB Dennis Dixon when scrambling, it will set them up perfectly for pulling off the upset in Autzen Stadium.

Oregon has gotten it done on the defensive side of the ball all season long with smoke and mirrors. They’ve given up huge chunks of yardage (393 YPG), but kept their opponents off the board due to the opposition's untimely mistakes, penalties, and turnovers. ASU owns the most balanced offensive attack the Ducks have seen to date, and it doesn’t kill itself with turnovers. The Ducks will really have to turn it up a couple of notches to keep the Sun Devils off the scoreboard, and I don’t foresee that happening.

All in all, this will be a wonderful battle much like the Ducks contest vs. the Trojans last week. However, the Sun Devils have the confidence and the moxie to go into Eugene and escape with the victory whereas you never got the feeling USC would be able to pull off the feat up until the crucial interception to end the game. Neither club has performed well in these of late, as both are 1-6 ATS when installed as home favs or road dawgs of 3-10 points the last seven times.

Something has to give here, and I’d much rather back the rabid dawg plus the points in this spot.

Free Pick: Arizona State +7 (-105)

**Willie Bee** · 11-01-07, 10:22 AM

Rutgers & Connecticut Under 46½

Game Time: 11/03/2007 07:15 PM -
By: Larry Cook | procappers.com

Coming off their first win over a ranked team, Connecticut hosts Rutgers Saturday night in a Big East contest that should be a defensive battle between the Knights and Huskies.

UConn and Rutgers will be a defensive battle Saturday night when the two Big East squads battle at Rentschler Field in East Hartford, CT.

The Connecticut Huskies have one of the most underrated defense in the country, holding a potent South Florida offense to just 15 points last week and holding Louisville to just 17 points in the week prior. The Huskies are allowing just 13 points a game overall and 11.8 points per game at home.

Both teams really, I mean, really run the ball a lot. This will allow for more ball control and more clock movement without much stoppage. Rutgers is averaging over 228 yards rushing on the road and UConn is rushing for 187 yards a game at home. This is each team's bread and butter and they will not shy away from it Saturday.

Rutgers is only giving up 20 points a game this season so UConn will continue to struggle offensively, relying on their defense to keep them in this game. The Under is 14-6 in UConn’s last 20 home games. The Under is 14-3 in the Huskies' last 17 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. UConn is 9-1 Under off a home win over the last three seasons. Bet the Under Saturday.

Free Pick: Rutgers-Connecticut Under 46½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 11-01-07, 10:23 AM

Florida State Seminoles (+7) at Boston College Eagles

Game Time: 11/03/2007 08:00 PM -
By: John Martin | procappers.com

Boston College is the better team, but Florida State has a habit of getting up for these types of games. Back the Seminoles as road dogs Saturday night against the Eagles.

The Florida State Seminoles will give the Boston College Eagles a run for their money Saturday.

Bobby Bowden has announced that Drew Weatherford will start at QB and it was the best decision he has made all season. Weatherford is completing over 60% of his passes and has just thrown one interception to five touchdowns this season. He gives the Seminoles their best chance to win.

Florida State has the defense that can shut down Matt Ryan and BC Saturday. As long as Florida State doesn’t turn the ball over, which they won’t with Weatherford at the helm, the Seminoles can pull off this upset and make their season. FSU is giving up a mere 18 points per game this year.

The Seminoles are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. They are known for losing games they should win and winning games they should lose. They will play the role of the underdog very well Saturday allowing for a nice ATS cover. Cash in with FSU as the underdog.

Free Pick: Florida State +7 (-115)

**Willie Bee** · 11-02-07, 11:18 AM

Follow Florida -14½ vs. Vanderbilt

Game Time: 11/03/2007 12:30 PM -
By: Dr. Bob | drbobsports.com

Pass defense has been the weak link in Florida's chain this year, but that won't be much trouble against a run-oriented Vanderbilt team. Play the Gators as home favorites.

The Florida Gators have three losses despite being one of the best teams in the nation, and their pass defense is to blame.

Florida has the best offense in the nation based on my compensated numbers (a little better than Oregon) and the Gators have a very good run defense (3.9 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average team), but they’ve allowed 6.5 yards per pass play to teams that would average 6.1 yppp against an average team. The Gators have allowed 20 points or more to all Division-IA teams they have faced this season, but Vanderbilt is a more run-oriented team with Mackenzi Adams at quarterback (19 or less pass plays in each of their last 3 games), so the Commodores are less likely to take advantage of Florida’s one weakness. Adams is a decent passer, averaging 5.4 yppp against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average QB, and the rushing attack is also just average with Adams at quarterback.

An average defense probably isn’t enough to stay close to a Florida team that has averaged 6.7 yards per play this season against seven Division-IA teams that would combine to allow just 4.9 yppl to an average team. Vanderbilt is a solid defensive team (4.9 yppl against teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average D), but that unit is actually slightly worse than what Florida has faced on average in their Division-IA games.

My math model favors Florida by 21½ points, but Vandy is 12-2 ATS the last four seasons as a road dog of seven points or more and Florida is 0-4 ATS as a conference home favorite of 14 points or more under coach Urban Meyer. I’ll still lean with the Gators: Florida-38, Vanderbilt-19.

Free Pick: Florida -14½ (-110)

© Copyright 2007. Reprinted with permission of the author.

**Willie Bee** · 11-02-07, 11:22 AM

Kansas -18½ to crush Cornhuskers

Game Time: 11/03/2007 12:30 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

This line has moved right up the ladder with Kansas the consensus heavy favorite. Grab the Jayhawks now to keep their undefeated record intact with a blowout over Nebraska.

I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw the opening number for this contest! The Kansas Jayhawks had been installed as 14-point home chalk against the Nebraska Cornhuskers, and bet up over the course of the week. My how times have changed people!

It wasn’t too long ago that me and a couple of my fraternity brothers comfortably laid the five or more touchdowns with Big Red whenever they paid Lawrence a visit.

Well, those days are certainly in the rearview mirror as the Mighty Manginos are now the decided favorite, and get to take so many years of pent up frustration out on the Huskers this afternoon. We were all over Nebraska plus the points last week, and weren’t shocked whatsoever when they almost came out of Austin with a straight up win. However, you couldn’t pay me enough to take any points with Nebraska this week.

Texas was laying all those points last week simply due to name recognition, and the fact that they were playing at home for the first time in almost a month. Their play on the field certainly hadn’t warranted them being 3-TD favorites in that spot. The same can’t be said about the undefeated Kansas Jayhawks who would love nothing more than to mop the field turf of Memorial Stadium with the Cornhuskers on KU's Homecoming Day.

Kansas will look to its double-pronged rushing attack of Jake Sharp and Brandon McAnderson to pick apart a Nebraska defense that’s allowed opponents to rush for 242 YPG overall and 346 YPG in their last three outings. Big Red will get served up a taste of its own medicine and get the ball rammed down its throat the entire game. The inexperienced Joe Ganz, in at QB for the injured Sam Keller, should get eaten alive by KU’s ferocious front seven considering he doesn’t have much in terms of help in his backfield.

Last week was a deflating loss for Nebraska. It was a game they could have won, but that won’t be the case this time around. Kansas will look to take it to the visitors from the opening kick-off, and I expect the eighth ranked Jayhawks to improve their record to 9-0 both SU and ATS!

Free Pick: Kansas -18½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 11-02-07, 11:25 AM

Play Northwestern Wildcats (-1½) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

Game Time: 11/03/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

Northwestern blew a shot to become bowl eligible last week, and won't let that happen again this week. Win with the Wildcats at home against the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Northwestern had a great chance to become bowl eligible last week at Purdue but imploded in the fourth quarter and now must go after it again. This will be the Wildcats' final game against a team with a losing record, so this is the best shot to get it done.

Last Saturday against the Boilermakers was the first time in Northwestern's last five games that it has been outgained as the offense was held to only 297 total yards, the second lowest output of the season after gaining just 120 yards at Ohio State.

Last year we saw the worst Iowa team we have seen since 2000, but this edition is even worse. The Hawkeyes are 4-5 on the season including losses in five of their last seven games. They are a couple plays away from losing all seven of those games. The first two wins came against Syracuse and Northern Illinois who are a combined 3-14 on the season. Iowa is 0-4 on the road and has lost seven straight away from home dating back to last season.

If Northwestern can get an early lead, the game is likely over since Iowa will have a tough time coming from behind two weeks in a row. The Hawkeyes are coming off their best rushing performance since their first game of the season but the inconsistency of it makes it difficult to believe that it will happen again. The Wildcats are no run stoppers but they are allowing a somewhat respectable 168.9 ypg on the ground. Iowa cannot pass the ball so getting behind is an issue. It passed for just 53 yards last Saturday.

Iowa is putting up decent but not great defensive numbers. The Hawkeyes have allowed at least 436 total yards in three of their last four games and now must face the second-ranked total offense in the Big Ten and the best passing attack it has seen all year. The Wildcats did not throw it well last week as quarterback C.J. Bacher threw an uncharacteristic three interceptions. Iowa is just 47th in the country in passing defense and 45th in passing efficiency defense after allowing over 300 yards in each of the last two games.

Hitting the road has been difficult for the Hawkeyes and it won’t be easier here. Iowa is 1-9 ATS after playing a game at home over the last two seasons. The Hawkeyes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win while Northwestern is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a straight up loss. Northwestern is 10-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 since 1992.

The Wildcats will produce enough offense to get the win as Iowa will not be able to keep up. Play Northwestern for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Northwestern -1½ (-109)

**Willie Bee** · 11-02-07, 11:26 AM

Texas Tech Red Raiders (-20½) at Baylor Bears

Game Time: 11/03/2007 03:00 PM -
By: Tom Stryker | 10starpicks.com

The Red Raiders are red faced after losses to Missouri and Colorado. Look for Texas Tech to take out some of their frustration on the woeful Baylor Bears.

Off back-to-back straight up losses to Missouri and Colorado, Texas Tech will show no mercy matched up against the hapless Baylor Bears. Let's take a peek inside the numbers.

Dating back to the 1980 season, the Red Raiders have been at their best coming off a SU and ATS loss posting a profitable 54-34 ATS record in their next game. If Tech owns a win/loss percentage of .500 or better in this situation, the record of this awesome team trend explodes to a sizzling 30-14 ATS!

Of course, tie that angle up with the history in this series and you can see why the Red Raiders are the side. In the last 16 meetings, Texas Tech has dominated Baylor to the tune of 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS including a spotless 9-0 ATS in this set coming off a straight up loss.

Since knocking off Buffalo on the road back on September 22, the Bears have dropped five straight by margins of 24, 20, 48, 21 and 38 points respectively. That's an average beating of 30.2 points per game! Baylor has been at its worst as a double-digit underdog, too. Dating back to the start of the 1992 season, the Bears have gone into hibernation when catching +10 or more notching a dismal 17-43-1 ATS record. In this set battling an opponent that enters off a straight up loss, Baylor crashes to a shocking 3-22 ATS.

The Red Raiders are in a nasty mood and they'll take their frustrations out on this offensively challenged pack of Bears. Take Texas Tech.

Free Pick: Texas Tech -20½ (-105)

**HAWGMOLLIE** · 11-02-07, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by Willie Bee

Follow Florida -14½ vs. Vanderbilt

Game Time: 11/03/2007 12:30 PM -
By: Dr. Bob | drbobsports.com

Pass defense has been the weak link in Florida's chain this year, but that won't be much trouble against a run-oriented Vanderbilt team. Play the Gators as home favorites.

The Florida Gators have three losses despite being one of the best teams in the nation, and their pass defense is to blame.

Florida has the best offense in the nation based on my compensated numbers (a little better than Oregon) and the Gators have a very good run defense (3.9 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average team), but they’ve allowed 6.5 yards per pass play to teams that would average 6.1 yppp against an average team. The Gators have allowed 20 points or more to all Division-IA teams they have faced this season, but Vanderbilt is a more run-oriented team with Mackenzi Adams at quarterback (19 or less pass plays in each of their last 3 games), so the Commodores are less likely to take advantage of Florida’s one weakness. Adams is a decent passer, averaging 5.4 yppp against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average QB, and the rushing attack is also just average with Adams at quarterback.

An average defense probably isn’t enough to stay close to a Florida team that has averaged 6.7 yards per play this season against seven Division-IA teams that would combine to allow just 4.9 yppl to an average team. Vanderbilt is a solid defensive team (4.9 yppl against teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average D), but that unit is actually slightly worse than what Florida has faced on average in their Division-IA games.

My math model favors Florida by 21½ points, but Vandy is 12-2 ATS the last four seasons as a road dog of seven points or more and Florida is 0-4 ATS as a conference home favorite of 14 points or more under coach Urban Meyer. I’ll still lean with the Gators: Florida-38, Vanderbilt-19.

Free Pick: Florida -14½ (-110)

© Copyright 2007. Reprinted with permission of the author.

nice write up....but this keeps me away from this game.

"My math model favors Florida by 21½ points, but Vandy is 12-2 ATS the last four seasons as a road dog of seven points or more and Florida is 0-4 ATS as a conference home favorite of 14 points or more under coach Urban Meyer. I’ll still lean with the Gators: Florida-38, Vanderbilt-19."

gators to win SU, vandy with the points.

**onlooker** · 11-02-07, 01:07 PM

Brad Diamond and John Martin

I am on Boston College -6

**louisvillekid** · 11-02-07, 05:38 PM

i agree onlooker, BC will destroy FSU IMO.