Best Value Wagers to win the BCS Championship

[BigdaddyQH]

I am discussing VALUE wagers here. Here is how I see it:

1. Boise State. Right now they are between 8 and 10 to 1, but dropping fast. They started out at 12/1. Their advantage. A relatively soft schedule. Their disadvantage. One loss eliminates them from any BCS consideration.

2. Nebraska. 15/1. Their advantage. They have one of the best defenses in the country. Their disadvantage. Can they beat Texas and OU, or Texas twice in the same season?

3. Iowa. 20/1. Their advantage. They play Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin at home. Their disadvantage. Ferentz has never been able to get the job done.

4. Texas. 15/1. Their advantage. Experience. Been there, done that. Their disadvantage. Can they get past Oklahoma and Nebraska on the road?

5. TCU. 18/1. Their advantage. A doable schedule that may see them around to pick up the pieces. Their disadvantage. Another one loss and you are out team.

My absolute out of left field longshot: Georgia at 30/1. They miss Alabama in the regular season, and play in the SEC East, which is down a bit this year. If they get through the regular season with 0-1 loss, who knows what could happen in the SEC Championship game. Like I said, this is a total off the wall longshot play, but at 30/1, they are a better play than Florida at 12/1 or Alabama at 7/2.

[talnted]

I really like the value on TCU

[BigdaddyQH]

The problem that both TCU and Boise State have is that one loss not only eliminates then from the big game, it eliminates them from ANY BCS game.

[itchypickle]

VALUE definitely goes to Texas. I think Oklahoma will drop off this year and Nebraska...too inconsistent. That said...as a proud Bama alum...I'm putting some units on a repeat. Call me crazy....but watch out for A&M in the Big 12 this year!!

[BigdaddyQH]

I do not see Texas winning at Nebraska,and they may not get past OU. I will take Nebraska's defense over Texas's offense this year easily. Texas still has no running game.

[IrishTim]

Not a big fan of these types of wagers because I don't think you ever get fair odds. Gun to head, I'd play TCU.

[HoldEmHook!!]

Go Bama,,,,,,Roll Tide!!!!!!

[stingray14]

The problem that both TCU and Boise State have is that one loss not only eliminates then from the big game, it eliminates them from ANY BCS game.

due to over-all strength of schedule 1 loss should eliminate them.......

[brooks85]

ya i dont like playing futures to win championships much either, unless i see something that looks really solid, like boise st but the odds are crap, so ill parlay them with some mma favorites.

I want to see some matchup odds for the NC game.

[BigdaddyQH]

I totally agree with both Irish Tim and brooks85. These wagers rarely give decent odds. They are set to gie the mooks a big advantage no matter whho wins. As always, the longerthe shot, the bigger the payoff for the book. In this case, the only team that is receiving serious action (and by serious, I mean enoough to move the line) is Boise State, who started at 12-1 and has dropped to 8-1 in some books. Unlike any BCS team, one loss eliminated Boise State from consideration.

[brooks85]

i got Arkansas +5000 and North Carolina +8000 as my longshots.

[BigdaddyQH]

i got Arkansas +5000 and North Carolina +8000 as my longshots.

Arkansas goes to Georgia and then hosts Alabama back to back. They also go to Jerryworld for their annual game against Texas A&M and then back on the road to visit South Carolina the next week. Auburn is also on the road. That is a tough schedule, but Arkansas certainly can upset 'Bama.

UNC opens in Atlanta against LSU, and goes to Florida State and Miami. The ACC Costal is very tough this season. While UNC will have one of the best defenses in the nation, their offense still has a lot of questions, the QB position being one of them.

Good Luck on your value wagers. I certainly can not knock them.

[plzkthx]

oh im going to follow these

[Kustac]

don't like any of them really, surprised you do BigD, VALUE is an interesting concept though and I'm sure you've done the math

[cjewell83]

ohio st

[IrishTim]

don't like any of them really, surprised you do BigD, VALUE is an interesting concept though and I'm sure you've done the math

The concept of value is that it's probability of winning exceeds the probability of the odds you are being given. In other words, if Iowa is 20 to 1 and you think they'll win 1 out of every 10 times, then that wager has value as you would win more than lose in the long haul.

[uva3021]

Virginia Tech could be favored in every game this year, pretty good at 20/1

[plzkthx]

having 0 loses for Boise State will eliminate them from the BCS. haha

[itchypickle]

ohio st

[jessetopolski]

regards to the boise tcu. no non major will ever get a chance with the current bcs setup so throw them out

[uva3021]

if you want to play boise state , might as well play them 5x ML vs VT and you win EQ to future value lol, + instant gratification

[whatsgood5]

Texas/Nebraska=best value IMO

[Kustac]

The concept of value is that it's probability of winning exceeds the probability of the odds you are being given. In other words, if Iowa is 20 to 1 and you think they'll win 1 out of every 10 times, then that wager has value as you would win more than lose in the long haul.

The concept of value is that it's probability of winning exceeds the probability of the odds you are being given. In other words, if Iowa is 20 to 1 and you think they'll win 1 out of every 10 times, then that wager has value as you would win more than lose in the long haul.

Irish: yes Thank you for that fine explanation, perhaps I was unclear in what I had said, I really wasn't saying I don't understand value, I was trying to say without looking at the schedule and figuring an estimate of each game I really don't see value just glancing through (its deceiving), but if BigD says there is then I'm sure if I actually took the time to do this I would probably find it after doing the math ... but I'm sure your explanation is helpful to any of the new guys who weren't following the concept when reading the thread

[The DiB]

regards to the boise tcu. no non major will ever get a chance with the current bcs setup so throw them out

Boise has a much better chance this year than they have in the past.

Unlike in previous years, they will be ranked very high in the preseason, easily top 2 or 3. Its much more difficult for them, or anybody else for that matter, to leapfrog the undefeated BCS schools who have been atop the polls all season. See Cincinnati last year.

With big games @ Va Tech and vs. Oregon State, they have an excellent chance to justify their ranking atop the polls. Given their preseason ranking and those two huge games that everybody will be watching, I find it hard to believe that they'd get leapfrogged at the end.

[Jrod124]

i agree with Georgia, very good schedule and their divison will be down. Though I think Tennessee will be tough

[BigdaddyQH]

i agree with Georgia, very good schedule and their divison will be down. Though I think Tennessee will be tough

With all the problems Tennessee is having, I can't see them being very tough, especially with the game being played in Athens.

[daneblazer]

What's funny about Georgia is that a ton of "experts" don't rank them in the top 25, but Vegas has them as the 14th or 15th most likely favorite to win the BCS title.

As a long shot "return to glory" pick, Florida State at 50/1. Several programs like USC & Oklahoma had a dormant period before being sparked by a coaching change. FSU has talent and now they have a coach who was one of Nick Saban's top coordinators at LSU. If the Noles surprise Oklahoma, they have most of their tough games at home and could run the table or have a 1 loss year.

[Jrod124]

With all the problems Tennessee is having, I can't see them being very tough, especially with the game being played in Athens.

Good point man, forgot the game was in Athens. Georgia may be worth a half a unit for ha-has!

[BigdaddyQH]

Texas/Nebraska=best value IMO

There is no question that both are good value. The problem I have is that they play each other once, in Lincoln, and could play each other a second time, in the Big 12 Championship game. They could take each other out. The problem is that the game is played in Mid October, which leaves little time for the losing team in game 1 to make up ground on the teams that may be voted ahead of them.

[daneblazer]

From the AJC. If Georgia can get solid Qb play, they are indeed a sleeper.

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College football’s preseason hype is flowing at full force. Analyst/publisher Phil Steele’s various preseason All-America and all-conference teams came out this week. Georgia is well represented.
The Bulldogs have six players on the preseason All-SEC first team, tying Alabama for the most, and 14 selections on the four all-conference teams combined, tying Florida for the most.
Also, Georgia has two players on the preseason All-America first team –- one of five schools with two or more — and five players on the four All-America teams.

[seaborneq]

Va Tech with Tyrod Taylor and Pittsburgh jumps out at me. Wanny has won some games the last couple of years after blowing so many when he first arrived. Beamer will win 9-10 no matter what, he is always a hot shot to do it.

[dice]

Penn State

[SR]

There is no "Value" in these value wagers. Simple stats should make these closer to 100 to 1. Regardless of school or anything.

[TodaysAction]

T.C.U. has no-shot at winning the National title this season.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Of those you listed, BSU at 10/1 is the best shot. Obviously they could stumble against one of the cupcakes but if they don't you're getting 10/1 on winning two games, at Va. Tech and the title game.