Home Dogs after a Road Upset

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  • Dr. Funke
    SBR Rookie
    • 09-11-07
    • 9

    #1
    Home Dogs after a Road Upset
    Has anyone researched this?

    In the NFL I generally subscribe to the theory of betting on a Home Underdog after the team achieved an upset win on the road.

    Dr. Bob turned me on to this after pointing out that:
    NFL home underdogs have been pretty good bets over the years after an upset win (173-128-9 ATS since 1980) since such teams tend to play with more confidence in that situation.
    Road Upsets from Week 7:

    LOU
    OREGST
    AUB
    NAVY
    GTECH
    OKST
    NMEX
    AFORCE
    TEMP
    MIDTENN
    ECAR

    (Non-Home) Underdogs in Week 8:

    AUB (+10) @ LSU


    Home Underdogs in Week 8:

    Navy (+3) v WAKEF
    Temple (+5.5) v Miami-OH

    I would think the confidence/emotional factor might be more pronounced in the College game. I picked Air Force over TCU (they won outright) after they upset Utah on the road earlier in the season, but I haven't been researching this closely enough overall to see if there is a trend.

    Let's see what happens in particular with Navy and Temple this weekend.
  • moneyplays
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 08-31-07
    • 788

    #2
    I can tell you at least one of those teams is losing this weekend. If you put a gun to my head I would say Temple.
    Comment
    • Dr. Funke
      SBR Rookie
      • 09-11-07
      • 9

      #3
      Two out of Three ain't bad!
      Comment
      • Dr. Funke
        SBR Rookie
        • 09-11-07
        • 9

        #4
        Here's what I found according to this theory for the 2007-08 NCAA season (ATS):

        Week 1:

        N/A

        Week 2:

        None qualify

        Week 3:

        W: AFORCE

        Week 4:

        W: VIRG

        Week 5:

        None qualify

        Week 6:

        W: ECAR
        W: MD
        W: UTEP

        Week 7:

        W: MIAMI-OH
        W: ND
        W: STAN

        Week 8:

        ???????

        Of course, now that I found no team has lost under this scenario (8-0 ATS), the theory will collapse like a house of cards.

        Conversely - although I casually observed it while looking for the teams above, the teams that qualified in terms of getting an upset on the road the previous week, but were favorites at home the following week tended to lose against the spread as far as I could tell.
        Comment
        • MJFtheGenius
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 05-31-07
          • 7257

          #5
          nice work Dr Funk, this is real good news for me because I liked Temple before I read this.
          Comment
          • Dr. Funke
            SBR Rookie
            • 09-11-07
            • 9

            #6
            Glad I could help.
            Comment
            • LLXC
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 12-10-06
              • 8972

              #7
              1-1

              so 9-1 so far this year. not bad!
              Comment
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