This is a pretty damn good read LT.
I always find myself getting screwed by those miracle comebacks performances, However I'll always bet the value if there is any even despite a possible 7-10 point spread starring in my face that is ready for the pickings.
On a side note...
I find it hard to believe that I'm the only one here that has profited enormously cashing in on some of these big doggies via the scalping route this year. If you haven't explored that avenue yet then I highly suggest you do so.
I always find myself getting screwed by those miracle comebacks performances, However I'll always bet the value if there is any even despite a possible 7-10 point spread starring in my face that is ready for the pickings.
On a side note...
I find it hard to believe that I'm the only one here that has profited enormously cashing in on some of these big doggies via the scalping route this year. If you haven't explored that avenue yet then I highly suggest you do so.
When to bet NCAA Football money line underdogs
By: LT Profits Sports Group
Most people bet the point spread in college football, but this has been a great year for betting money lines, as one overlay after another has cashed in. Not all of them have been small upsets either, as you will see that Colorado over Oklahoma and Rice over Southern Miss were playable based on the enclosed value table.
Well, if you think that this has been a crazy college football season, with each week filled with more upsets than usual, you are right.
Underdogs are 90-262, 25.6 percent straight up this season, which is significantly higher than the overall straight up success rate of 23.7 percent for underdogs since 1985. This should actually be good news for bettors, except that the vast majority of players bet the point spread and are very reluctant to bet underdogs on the money line.
Thus, most players are missing a chance to cash in on a year where more underdogs than usual are winning with sufficient value to make a wager on them. This leads us to the question of how does one know if it is better to bet the money line or the point spread if you like the underdog in a particular game.
To this end, we have broken out all NCAA Football games since 1985 into several spread ranges for both home and road underdogs, and we have determined the money line break-even point (BE) within each range. Here is a summary of our results (records are straight up with ties omitted):
Obviously, if you can get a money line higher than the BE within that spread range specific to home and away, the underdog merits a play. This probably happens more frequently than many people think, as money lines are oftentimes inflated more than point spreads are. This is because bookmakers know that most people have the mentality of “there is no way the favorite loses outright,” so they get away with setting artificially high money lines.
Now by no means are we suggesting that anyone should have bet Appalachian State over Michigan or Stanford over USC. In fact, there was no money line available on Appalachian State since they are a Division I-AA school, and Stanford closed at around +4500 on the ML, not even close to the BE of +6664 for road underdogs of +27 or more.
However, a couple of huge upsets that were playable based on the tables above were Colorado over Oklahoma and Rice over Southern Mississippi. Colorado was +23 points at home, meaning that the BE for their range was +1617. However, the actual ML varied between +1800 and +1900, which would have meant a very nice ticket. As for Rice, they were +20½ on the road, which has a BE of +927. Yet, their ML was available at +1200.
Those are just a couple of the big upsets that could have been cashed this year, but there have been many smaller upsets each week that fit the BE criteria. We suggest you print out the tables above and search for more value money line dogs each week. You will be surprised at just how many overlays there are.
By: LT Profits Sports Group
Most people bet the point spread in college football, but this has been a great year for betting money lines, as one overlay after another has cashed in. Not all of them have been small upsets either, as you will see that Colorado over Oklahoma and Rice over Southern Miss were playable based on the enclosed value table.
Well, if you think that this has been a crazy college football season, with each week filled with more upsets than usual, you are right.
Underdogs are 90-262, 25.6 percent straight up this season, which is significantly higher than the overall straight up success rate of 23.7 percent for underdogs since 1985. This should actually be good news for bettors, except that the vast majority of players bet the point spread and are very reluctant to bet underdogs on the money line.
Thus, most players are missing a chance to cash in on a year where more underdogs than usual are winning with sufficient value to make a wager on them. This leads us to the question of how does one know if it is better to bet the money line or the point spread if you like the underdog in a particular game.
To this end, we have broken out all NCAA Football games since 1985 into several spread ranges for both home and road underdogs, and we have determined the money line break-even point (BE) within each range. Here is a summary of our results (records are straight up with ties omitted):
Code:
HOME UNDERDOGS ROAD UNDERDOGS Range W L Pct BE Range W L Pct BE 1-2½ 293 315 48.2% +108 1-2½ 343 358 48.9% +104 3-6½ 470 797 37.1% +170 3-6½ 624 1047 37.3% +168 7-9½ 214 560 27.6% +262 7-9½ 280 813 25.6% +290 10-13½ 134 507 20.9% +378 10-13½ 261 915 22.2% +351 14-16½ 62 308 16.8% +497 14-16½ 99 690 12.5% +697 17-20½ 34 294 10.4% +865 17-20½ 77 714 9.7% +927 21-26½ 18 291 5.8% +1617 21-26½ 38 792 4.6% +2084 27+ 6 203 2.9% +3383 27+ 14 953 1.5% +6664
Now by no means are we suggesting that anyone should have bet Appalachian State over Michigan or Stanford over USC. In fact, there was no money line available on Appalachian State since they are a Division I-AA school, and Stanford closed at around +4500 on the ML, not even close to the BE of +6664 for road underdogs of +27 or more.
However, a couple of huge upsets that were playable based on the tables above were Colorado over Oklahoma and Rice over Southern Mississippi. Colorado was +23 points at home, meaning that the BE for their range was +1617. However, the actual ML varied between +1800 and +1900, which would have meant a very nice ticket. As for Rice, they were +20½ on the road, which has a BE of +927. Yet, their ML was available at +1200.
Those are just a couple of the big upsets that could have been cashed this year, but there have been many smaller upsets each week that fit the BE criteria. We suggest you print out the tables above and search for more value money line dogs each week. You will be surprised at just how many overlays there are.
