Sides: 19-14-2, +7.89
Totals: 8-6-1, +1.48
ML: 2-4, -1.00
YTD: 29-24-3, +8.37
3* Indiana +9: Insane. Crazy. Retarded. I was hoping for +3 or 4, in which case I still would’ve backed the Hoosiers in this spot. I don’t think PSU should be giving Indiana 9 on a neutral field, never mind on the road. This is a huge overreaction to PSU hammering an extremely overrated Wisky team and the Hoosiers getting blown out on the road to a MSU team in desperate need of a conference W. Anthony Morelli’s 2-4 on the road in the Big 11 in his career, with a 4:8 TD/INT ratio in those contests. Even on his best day, Morelli doesn’t come close to matching the talents of Indiana QB Kellen Lewis, maybe the most unheralded very good QB in the country. Lewis is Juice Williams with an arm, and combined with James Hardy, likely the best WR in the conference, this Hoosiers’ offense is very good. PSU also possesses a very good receiving core, but Morelli has yet to show he can fully utilize all the talent on offense, particularly on the road. MSU’s offense ran all over Indiana, but PSU’s backfield isn’t nearly as explosive, even more so now that Austin Scott is out, so I don’t envision the Nittany Lions having the same success as Sparty running the ball. This will put the game in Morelli’s hand, and as he’s shown time and again, he’s not up to the task. I like Indiana’s chances of winning this game outright, but I’ll gladly take the extremely generous 9-pt. cushion.
3* Missouri -3.5: I was very impressed with Missouri over the weekend as they gave OU all they could handle, leading the Sooners 24-23 heading into the 4th Q. The Tigers fell apart in the 4th, mostly due to a costly turnover that gave OU the lead, but they played the best team in the country (in my opinion, anyway) even for much of the game, on the road. I knew Mizzou was good, but they're even better than I thought. The Red Raiders have played one team this year with enough offensive firepower to go back at them, and they lost that game. Tech’s just 7-10 SU on the road in conference play over the last 5 years, with none of those wins coming over teams that were ranked. Graham Harrell’s impressive, Chase Daniel is better. Tech’s receiving options are very good, Missouri’s are better. Everything Tech does, Missouri does better. Give me the home team to cover the small number.
3* Purdue -6.5: Purdue’s coming off blowout losses to OSU and UM. No surprise. The Boilermakers never beat OSU and/or UM. However, lead by Curtis Painter, Purdue’s offense is still one of the best in the Big 11, and Iowa closing as a 5-pt. dog at home to Illinois and opening as a 6.5-pt. dog at Purdue is ridiculous. The Hawkeyes were in a great spot to pick-up their first conference win in 10 tries against a young Illini team, but this Iowa squad still features by far the worst offense in the conference, and they’re going to have to score in bunches to keep this one respectable. I don’t think they’re capable. Iowa’s defense came up big in containing Illinois’ run-heavy offense, but Purdue’s spread offense poses more problems for a Hawkeyes’ defense that allowed 300+ passing yards to an Indiana attack that loosely resembles Joe Tiller’s offense. I anticipate Painter having a big day through the air and Purdue winning comfortably.
2* Colorado +5: Mangino’s a great coach and KU’s improving, but their 6-0 record is very misleading - they’ve beaten 1 decent team and 5 terrible teams. They played arguably the worst non-conference schedule in the country, and jumping out to an undefeated start has overvalued a KU team against a CU squad that has played one of the more difficult non-conference schedules. Colorado’s already shown what they’re capable of doing at home, and Cody Hawkins has naturally been much more effective playing in Boulder. Hawkins was disappointing against KSU, and his 3 INT’s cost CU any chance of being competitive, but returning home should improve his play, as he was outstanding in his prior 2 games. This is the best offense and defense the Jayhawks have faced to this point, and I don’t expect their perfect record to last through the weekend.
Waiting for a few totals. Will add more later in the week.
Totals: 8-6-1, +1.48
ML: 2-4, -1.00
YTD: 29-24-3, +8.37
3* Indiana +9: Insane. Crazy. Retarded. I was hoping for +3 or 4, in which case I still would’ve backed the Hoosiers in this spot. I don’t think PSU should be giving Indiana 9 on a neutral field, never mind on the road. This is a huge overreaction to PSU hammering an extremely overrated Wisky team and the Hoosiers getting blown out on the road to a MSU team in desperate need of a conference W. Anthony Morelli’s 2-4 on the road in the Big 11 in his career, with a 4:8 TD/INT ratio in those contests. Even on his best day, Morelli doesn’t come close to matching the talents of Indiana QB Kellen Lewis, maybe the most unheralded very good QB in the country. Lewis is Juice Williams with an arm, and combined with James Hardy, likely the best WR in the conference, this Hoosiers’ offense is very good. PSU also possesses a very good receiving core, but Morelli has yet to show he can fully utilize all the talent on offense, particularly on the road. MSU’s offense ran all over Indiana, but PSU’s backfield isn’t nearly as explosive, even more so now that Austin Scott is out, so I don’t envision the Nittany Lions having the same success as Sparty running the ball. This will put the game in Morelli’s hand, and as he’s shown time and again, he’s not up to the task. I like Indiana’s chances of winning this game outright, but I’ll gladly take the extremely generous 9-pt. cushion.
3* Missouri -3.5: I was very impressed with Missouri over the weekend as they gave OU all they could handle, leading the Sooners 24-23 heading into the 4th Q. The Tigers fell apart in the 4th, mostly due to a costly turnover that gave OU the lead, but they played the best team in the country (in my opinion, anyway) even for much of the game, on the road. I knew Mizzou was good, but they're even better than I thought. The Red Raiders have played one team this year with enough offensive firepower to go back at them, and they lost that game. Tech’s just 7-10 SU on the road in conference play over the last 5 years, with none of those wins coming over teams that were ranked. Graham Harrell’s impressive, Chase Daniel is better. Tech’s receiving options are very good, Missouri’s are better. Everything Tech does, Missouri does better. Give me the home team to cover the small number.
3* Purdue -6.5: Purdue’s coming off blowout losses to OSU and UM. No surprise. The Boilermakers never beat OSU and/or UM. However, lead by Curtis Painter, Purdue’s offense is still one of the best in the Big 11, and Iowa closing as a 5-pt. dog at home to Illinois and opening as a 6.5-pt. dog at Purdue is ridiculous. The Hawkeyes were in a great spot to pick-up their first conference win in 10 tries against a young Illini team, but this Iowa squad still features by far the worst offense in the conference, and they’re going to have to score in bunches to keep this one respectable. I don’t think they’re capable. Iowa’s defense came up big in containing Illinois’ run-heavy offense, but Purdue’s spread offense poses more problems for a Hawkeyes’ defense that allowed 300+ passing yards to an Indiana attack that loosely resembles Joe Tiller’s offense. I anticipate Painter having a big day through the air and Purdue winning comfortably.
2* Colorado +5: Mangino’s a great coach and KU’s improving, but their 6-0 record is very misleading - they’ve beaten 1 decent team and 5 terrible teams. They played arguably the worst non-conference schedule in the country, and jumping out to an undefeated start has overvalued a KU team against a CU squad that has played one of the more difficult non-conference schedules. Colorado’s already shown what they’re capable of doing at home, and Cody Hawkins has naturally been much more effective playing in Boulder. Hawkins was disappointing against KSU, and his 3 INT’s cost CU any chance of being competitive, but returning home should improve his play, as he was outstanding in his prior 2 games. This is the best offense and defense the Jayhawks have faced to this point, and I don’t expect their perfect record to last through the weekend.
Waiting for a few totals. Will add more later in the week.
I like Colorado on the moneyline and I think getting 4 points is a steal.
