A look at the SEC East at this point in the spring to determine which teams are on the rise, and which ones are on the way down.
East:
Florida: DOWN. That does not necessairily mean that they will have a poor season, but you just do not lose that many quality players and expect to be as good as last season. The schedule does not help them either. They must play at Alabama and host LSU. Question marks persist about HC Meyer's health. They are certainly not a NC caliber team this season.
Georgia: UP. Everyone returns on the offense except their QB. That is a lot of talent. The defense returns 6 starters, and gets a new look under new DC Todd Grantham, the former Dallas DL coach. They will go to a 3-4 look. Richt is starting to feel the pressure. With no Alabama or LSU on the schedule, this is the year that UGA can win the SEC East. Another poor season and Richt may be gone.
Kentucky: DOWN: This team loses too much talent on both sides of the ball. The QB spot is up in the air. The defense loses it's top 4 players. Perhaps the biggest loss is the retirement of HC Brooks. A soft non-con schedule may make this team look better than it is early on.
South Carolina: UP: The question is how far up? This team returns 8 starters on offense and 7 on defense. The problem with South Carolina has been inconsistancy, and a habit of terrible finishes at the end of the season. If Spurrier can not turn this team around this year, he may never be able to. The schedule is certainly no help.
Tennessee: DOWN. This team is a disaster waiting to happen on offense, and the latest defections just make matters worse. The defense loses their front line. Who knows what Dooley is doing in Knottsville, but he obviously is not making his players happy campers. He will be lucky to last two years at this rate.
Vanderbilt: DOWN. This team simply loses too much talent along the offensive and defensive front line. The schedule is certainly no help at all. This team needs another year.
West:
Alabama: EVEN. The defending Champs have a great offense returining. The best RB tandem in the nation, a solid QB, and they should have another solid O-line. The problems will be on the defensive side of the ball, where they get hit very hard. 9-10starters (depending on who you believe) are gone. You do not just replace these starters. You can not replace experience. The schedule is a bit tougher, and they have the bullseye on their backs. This all adds up to a wash.
Arkansas: UP. A ton of talent returns on the offense, incuding Heisman hopeful Mallet at QB. The defense returns 7 starters, but loses two on the line. This unit will have to improve if Arkansas wants to challenge 'Bama. The schedule helps. They get 'Bama and LSU at home, and no Florida. This could be their year.
Auburn: UP. But not as much as it seems. Auburn returns 7 starters on an offense that shocked everyone last year. The defense returns 8 starters, and should be improved. They play 8 home games, and only have Alabama on the road to worry about. So what is there not to like? Last year's finish for one thing. Auburn lost 5out of their last 8 games, and barely survived their bowl game. They shocked everyone coming out of the gate, but once teams caught on, their record fell. The defense gave up too many points. They should be better, but 'Bama is loaded and Arkansas is imporving.
LSU: Down. This team was a disappointment last season, and loses a ton of talent at the skill positions on offense. They will have to find a ground attack. The O-line looks good. The defense only returns 4 starters, and takes a major hit in the front 7. On top of it all, Les Miles stock as a HC is dropping. The schedule is no help, opening against North Carolina, and going to Auburn, Florida, and Arkansas. This team is very shaky this season.
MISSISSIPPI: DOWN. Another major disappointment last season, Ole Miss loses 7 starters on offense, including QB Snead, two WR's, and three starters on the line. They also get hit hard losing several key back-ups. The defense returns 6 starters, but takes a big hit in the secondary. Going to 'Bama, Arkansas and LSU really hurts. This team is in rebuilding mode.
MISSISSIPPI STATE. UP. 7 starters return from a team that suprised a lot of people last year. They must find a replacement for QB Lee, and RB Dixon. They will be thin at the RB position. 8 starters return on the defense, which should be an improved squad. The schedule is tough, with five very tough road games. This team may improve enough to break even and go to a minor bowl game.
While the West may improve a bit, the losses that the East will suffer leads me to believe that this conference will be down overall. Alabama is certainly the class of the conference, but there is no real strong 2nd place finisher. The East could be a two or three horse race. The West still has no real challenger to 'Bama. The SEC will still be strong. They still could be the strongest conference over all. Just not quite as strong as they have been.
East:
Florida: DOWN. That does not necessairily mean that they will have a poor season, but you just do not lose that many quality players and expect to be as good as last season. The schedule does not help them either. They must play at Alabama and host LSU. Question marks persist about HC Meyer's health. They are certainly not a NC caliber team this season.
Georgia: UP. Everyone returns on the offense except their QB. That is a lot of talent. The defense returns 6 starters, and gets a new look under new DC Todd Grantham, the former Dallas DL coach. They will go to a 3-4 look. Richt is starting to feel the pressure. With no Alabama or LSU on the schedule, this is the year that UGA can win the SEC East. Another poor season and Richt may be gone.
Kentucky: DOWN: This team loses too much talent on both sides of the ball. The QB spot is up in the air. The defense loses it's top 4 players. Perhaps the biggest loss is the retirement of HC Brooks. A soft non-con schedule may make this team look better than it is early on.
South Carolina: UP: The question is how far up? This team returns 8 starters on offense and 7 on defense. The problem with South Carolina has been inconsistancy, and a habit of terrible finishes at the end of the season. If Spurrier can not turn this team around this year, he may never be able to. The schedule is certainly no help.
Tennessee: DOWN. This team is a disaster waiting to happen on offense, and the latest defections just make matters worse. The defense loses their front line. Who knows what Dooley is doing in Knottsville, but he obviously is not making his players happy campers. He will be lucky to last two years at this rate.
Vanderbilt: DOWN. This team simply loses too much talent along the offensive and defensive front line. The schedule is certainly no help at all. This team needs another year.
West:
Alabama: EVEN. The defending Champs have a great offense returining. The best RB tandem in the nation, a solid QB, and they should have another solid O-line. The problems will be on the defensive side of the ball, where they get hit very hard. 9-10starters (depending on who you believe) are gone. You do not just replace these starters. You can not replace experience. The schedule is a bit tougher, and they have the bullseye on their backs. This all adds up to a wash.
Arkansas: UP. A ton of talent returns on the offense, incuding Heisman hopeful Mallet at QB. The defense returns 7 starters, but loses two on the line. This unit will have to improve if Arkansas wants to challenge 'Bama. The schedule helps. They get 'Bama and LSU at home, and no Florida. This could be their year.
Auburn: UP. But not as much as it seems. Auburn returns 7 starters on an offense that shocked everyone last year. The defense returns 8 starters, and should be improved. They play 8 home games, and only have Alabama on the road to worry about. So what is there not to like? Last year's finish for one thing. Auburn lost 5out of their last 8 games, and barely survived their bowl game. They shocked everyone coming out of the gate, but once teams caught on, their record fell. The defense gave up too many points. They should be better, but 'Bama is loaded and Arkansas is imporving.
LSU: Down. This team was a disappointment last season, and loses a ton of talent at the skill positions on offense. They will have to find a ground attack. The O-line looks good. The defense only returns 4 starters, and takes a major hit in the front 7. On top of it all, Les Miles stock as a HC is dropping. The schedule is no help, opening against North Carolina, and going to Auburn, Florida, and Arkansas. This team is very shaky this season.
MISSISSIPPI: DOWN. Another major disappointment last season, Ole Miss loses 7 starters on offense, including QB Snead, two WR's, and three starters on the line. They also get hit hard losing several key back-ups. The defense returns 6 starters, but takes a big hit in the secondary. Going to 'Bama, Arkansas and LSU really hurts. This team is in rebuilding mode.
MISSISSIPPI STATE. UP. 7 starters return from a team that suprised a lot of people last year. They must find a replacement for QB Lee, and RB Dixon. They will be thin at the RB position. 8 starters return on the defense, which should be an improved squad. The schedule is tough, with five very tough road games. This team may improve enough to break even and go to a minor bowl game.
While the West may improve a bit, the losses that the East will suffer leads me to believe that this conference will be down overall. Alabama is certainly the class of the conference, but there is no real strong 2nd place finisher. The East could be a two or three horse race. The West still has no real challenger to 'Bama. The SEC will still be strong. They still could be the strongest conference over all. Just not quite as strong as they have been.
