Saturday's Front Page NCAAF Picks (Oct 6)

**Willie Bee** · 10-05-07, 11:46 AM

Iowa State (+24½) at Texas Tech

Game Time: 10/06/2007 07:00 PM -
By: Brad Diamond | playbook.com

Sure, Texas Tech has an explosive offense, but their defense is suspect at best. Take the big points and Iowa State this Saturday night when the Cyclones visit the Red Raiders.

The Cyclones went out to Lincoln and dominated the stat sheet, but came up short on the scoreboard 35-17 as Nebraska finished well, out-scoring ISU 21-7 in the second-half. The key play was a 93-yard interception return by the Huskers with the Cyclones charging to the end zone.

Overall, though, the statistics favored ISU with slightly over 39 minutes in time of possession and 415 yards of offense. If the visiting Cyclones can muster similar numbers this week they will offset the slick passing game of QB Graham Harrell and the skilled wide out set fielded by the Red Raiders.

Iowa State is 1-4 SU this season with a loss to Northern Iowa (24-13) in Game 2 of the season. But, the Cyclones have upset Iowa in Ames 15-13. Thus far, Texas Tech has put together a decent 4-1 season, but more dramatic has been their #1 ranking in the NCAA loading up their offense. In fact, they now average over 600 yards per game, 7.46 yards per play and 38 touches to date. They manhandled Northwester State of the Southland Conference last week, 75-7.

Still, Iowa State is a middle rung Big-12 unit that will not quit, and suddenly has found a running game. Without question, slowing the tempo of this battle is critical for Cyclones offensive coordinator Robert McFarland who has said as much this week. Recall, the Red Raiders are allowing 24 points per game defensively. If the Cyclones put up three touches, they cover!

Free Pick: Iowa State +24½

**Willie Bee** · 10-05-07, 11:47 AM

Back UNLV Rebels (+5) against Air Force Falcons

Game Time: 10/06/2007 09:00 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Air Force is not a team to be laying this many points, even at home at Falcon Stadium on the academy's campus. Grab the UNLV Rebels and the points on Saturday night.

Our Saturday night college football selection is on the UNLV Rebels plus the points over Air Force, as we will fade the Flyboys off their back-to-back SU/ATS road losses vs. Navy and BYU the previous two games.

Since 1980, single digit home favorites are 36-57 ATS off two SU/ATS road losses, if they're matched up against a conference foe. Last week, UNLV lost a heartbreaker when Nevada completed a long touchdown pass in the final minute to beat the Rebels 27-20.

Look for UNLV to take out its frustration on Air Force. Grab the points.

Free Pick: UNLV +5 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 10-05-07, 11:48 AM

Florida Gators, LSU Tigers Under 47½

Game Time: 10/06/2007 08:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Defenses usually rule the day when Florida and LSU get together, as the Under is 10-1 the last 11 meetings. With both defenses playing well this year, expect the same.

Now the Florida Gators and top-ranked LSU Tigers are obviously both potent offensively, but as oftentimes happens when two SEC powers get together, we expect the defenses to dominate this contest.

In fact, the Under is 10-1 in the last 11 head-to-head meetings between these schools, including 5-0 the last five years with none of those games surpassing 45 points. Sure LSU is averaging 39.8 points per game offensively, but they would not be the number one team in the land if not for a defense that is allowing a microscopic 6.4 points per game on just 174.6 total yards per contest!

Now Florida has given up some bog plays in the early going, but the bottom line is that they are still allowing only 19.6 points per game. No one has been able to run on the Gators, as they are allowing only 63.4 rushing yards per game on 2.2 yards per rush. This may make LSU a little more one-dimensional on offense, which may make them a tad easier to defend.

We expect this contest to mirror the last five meeting between these perennial powerhouses, which should translate to a safe Under.

Free Pick: Florida, LSU Under 47½

**Willie Bee** · 10-05-07, 11:49 AM

Side with Sooners -11 vs. Longhorns

Game Time: 10/06/2007 03:30 PM -
By: Jeff Alexander | procappers.com

Both teams are coming off embarrassing losses last week, with the Sooners 13-5 ATS the past two seasons, they are the play as 11-point favorites in Dallas against the Longhorns.

The books have Oklahoma favored in this neutral field game and we’ll lay the chalk on them for a unit.

The Sooners endured a terrible defeat last week on the road against Colorado. That game has definitely lit a match under the Sooners’ butts. At 13-5 against the spread over the last two seasons, the Sooners are one of the best covering teams in the nation.

Texas nearly went down to Central Florida on the road and I don’t think this young team is ready for this big game away from home. The books would agree by the line that they have set. Lay the points.

Free Pick: Oklahoma -11

**Willie Bee** · 10-05-07, 11:51 AM

Back Illinois Fighting Illini (-2½) vs. Wisconsin Badgers

Game Time: 10/06/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

Squares everywhere are jumping on No. 5 Wisconsin as small road pups this Saturday. But those in the know understand Illinois is rightfully favored in this one at home.

Wisconsin is fifth in the country and the Badgers are getting points? That makes no sense, let’s hammer them. That is the comment from most squares in the country when they see this line and for a square, it is easy money.

Wisconsin is a dog for a reason and could possibly be the worst 5th-ranked team in the history of college football, sans Michigan in week one this season. The Badgers have barely gotten by the last two weeks with narrow wins against Iowa and Michigan St., both at home by the way.

Illinois is a team on the rise and its athleticism is proving be to too much for some teams. After defeating Penn St., the Illini are 2-0 in the Big Ten for the first time since 1991 which was coach John Mackovic's final team showing how long ago that really was. It was the first ranked opponent they have defeated since 1991 and they are now at 4-1, making dreams of a bowl bid sound like more than just wishful thinking. People are talking about letdown but this team wants more as one big win won’t get it done.

For the first time Illinois head coach Ron Zook is making sure his team stays grounded, reining in the excitement over the recent four-game winning streak. But he won't dampen a growing sense of confidence. The Illini are one bad play away from being undefeated right now as it cost them in their opener against Missouri and this team absolutely thinks it can contend in the Big Ten. A win over yet another ranked team will no doubt move them into the top 20 as they are currently ranked 28th in the AP poll.

Illinois had 216 yards rushing against Penn St., the fourth straight 200-yard rushing performance for an Illini team that is now ranked sixth in the country in rushing offense. That came against a Nittany Lions defense that was ranked sixth in the country in rushing yards allowed. Wisconsin comes into this game ranked 42nd in rushing defense and that defense was lit up last Saturday for 241 yards rushing by Michigan St. The Spartans came in ranked 31st in rushing defense.

As good as Illinois is running the ball, it is nearly as good at stopping the run. The Illini are 22nd in the country in rushing defense, allowing only 95.4 ypg on their 2.8 ypc average allowed is 16th in the nation. Wisconsin is a very good rushing team but when facing a defense like Illinois, it was shut down pretty good as Iowa held the Badgers to 138 yards rushing two games back. The Hawkeyes are 14th in rushing defense so comparing them with Illini is spot on.

Illinois is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning record and that jumps to 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage greater than 75 percent. Winning has been contagious as the good play tends to carry forward as the Illini are now 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a win in their previous game. Wisconsin is just 1-4 ATS in the same situation. This will be an upset in some minds but the fraudulent 5th rank team will show why they have no business being there.

Free Pick: Illinois (-2½) 1½ Units

**Willie Bee** · 10-05-07, 12:35 PM

Rutgers (-13) versus Cincinnati

Game Time: 10/06/2007 08:00 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Rutgers has revenge on their mind and need to bounce back from last week's upset loss to Maryland. Side with the Scarlet Knights on Saturday hosting the Cincinnati Bearcats.

The 24th-ranked Cincinnati Bearcats enter into this contest against the 21st-ranked Rutgers Scarlet Knights having won eight straight games dating back to last season.

The above mentioned streak began with a upset win over these same Scarlet Knights on Dec 18 last season at home by a score of 30-11 as 5-point home underdogs. In that game, Cincinnati caught Rutgers in a letdown situation after a huge 28-25 comeback win against the Louisville Cardinals in their previous contest. It's now interesting to note that Rutgers got caught looking ahead to this contest last week against Maryland, losing for the first time at home in 11 games.

Previous to last week's upset loss, the Knights had won 10 straight home games, outscoring their opponents during that span by an average of 30 points per game. Bottom line: Rutgers has proven to be solid after a loss in the recent past, going 3-0 last season under those circumstances. With revenge as an incentive, look for Rutgers to abruptly end the Bearcats undefeated season!

Final Notes & Trends: Rutgers plays very well against above. 500 teams, covering six straight, and have beat these top tier teams by an average of 8.2 PPG. Play on Rutgers.

Free Pick: Rutgers -3 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 10-05-07, 12:36 PM

Northwestern Wildcats +14½ at Michigan State Spartans

Game Time: 10/06/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Nelly's Sportsline | playbook.com

Mark Dantonio has the Spartans headed in the right direction. However, the Wildcats of Northwestern will at least stay within the spread Saturday at Michigan State.

The Michigan State Spartans may have lost last week, but the offense earned some respect with over 560 yards of offense against a Top Ten team.

This is a difficult follow-up game for Michigan State even though they appear to be the superior team. MSU has faced two huge games back-to-back and Northwestern proved last week that they can be a dangerous team, posting over 400 yards against Michigan. Despite the emergence of the Spartans under new coach Mark Dantonio, MSU has a poor history to overcome with a 3-11-1 ATS record in the past 15 home games.

Last season the Spartans shocked Northwestern for a miraculous comeback win and the Wildcats could explode in this revenge spot after facing Ohio State and Michigan the last two weeks.

Free Pick: Northwestern +14½

**Willie Bee** · 10-05-07, 01:06 PM

Play Illinois -2½ versus Wisconsin

Game Time: 10/06/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

Many think the wrong team is favored while some think Wisconsin shouldn't be ranked so high. The right play this Saturday is the home favorites; back the Illini vs. the Badgers.

Since dropping its season opener in a wild one vs. Missouri, the Fighting Illini have won four in a row and covered three of the lined games in the process. Last week's victory over JoPa and the Nittany Lions was Ron Zook's signature win since taking over the Illinois program two years ago. He’s done a masterful job recruiting, and now their record is starting to bare some of the fruit from those classes.

Many will look at this number and be shocked at the fact that Wisconsin is the underdog considering their current ranking in the AP Poll. However, the unranked home favorite has cashed on a number of occasions in collegiate games over the years, and I believe the only way to go in this spot is with the home team.

Wisconsin has done absolutely nothing this season to warrant them the #5 slot in the current AP Poll. They haven’t dominated a single opponent yet this season, and they’ve looked beatable on a number of occasions. They were very lucky to get past a tough MSU squad in their own house last week, and they’ve got another thing coming if they think they’ll just be able to lineup in Champaign and roll to another comfortable road win and cover. The Illini gave them all they could handle and more up in Madison last year against a more formidable Badger outfit, and they won’t be on the winning end this time around. Their defense has allowed way too many big plays, and their offense relies entirely upon the play of RB P.J. Hill and TE Travis Beckum.

Illinois' defense, led by MLB Jeremy Leman and Company, will neutralize one of those guys and take Wiscy out of its comfort zone. If it’s Hill they stop, the Badgers don’t have a shot winning SU let alone covering this short number.

Don’t read into this line too much. The Illini have been installed as favorites for a reason. Wisconsin is way past due to lose a game the way they’re playing, and a revitalized Illinois team that should have beat them last year is just the team to do it. Lay the chalk!

Free Pick: Illinois -2½

**Willie Bee** · 10-05-07, 01:07 PM

Air Force Falcons -4½ vs. UNLV

Game Time: 10/06/2007 09:00 PM -
By: Larry Cook | procappers.com

With three tough road tilts already under their belt, Air Force will be ready for the UNLV defense with a win and a cover at home on Saturday night. Follow the Falcons over the Rebels.

The Air Force Falcons are 4-1 against the spread in their last five meetings with the Rebels of UNLV.

The Falcons have played three tough road games this season at Navy, BYU and Utah. They are a much better home team and this will be a much easier contest for Air Force when they play UNLV Saturday.

UNLV is a miserable 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 road games. The Rebels are 0-8 ATS in road games in the first month of the season over the last three seasons. The Falcons cover this spread with ease at home Saturday. Bet Air Force.

Free Pick: Air Force -4½

**Wolfpack** · 10-05-07, 01:33 PM

Why did you pick UNLV +5 and then take Air Force at -4.5??

**Willie Bee** · 10-05-07, 01:41 PM

The UNLV - Air Force picks were made by two different people.

**Willie Bee** · 10-05-07, 01:42 PM

Kent State -9½ vs Miami (Ohio)

Game Time: 10/06/2007 03:00 PM -
By: Dave Cokin | playbook.com

Going into a game with Miami (Ohio) as the favorites is not a common occurrence for Kent State, but it's justified this year. Take the Golden Flashes Saturday versus the RedHawks.

It's been many years since Kent State went into a game with Miami-Ohio as the favorite, but it's justified here.

The visitors are really hurting in the backfield with injuries, and that means a big burden for QB Daniel Raudabaugh who's just not that talented. Kent State has had to play four road games already and I believe they're a bit underrated right now. This is an excellent fundamental matchup for the Golden Flashes as they are running for more than 200 ypg and Miami allows more than 200 per game on the ground.

It's a very big game for the hosts if they want to win their division, and I see them getting the job done in convincing enough fashion.

Free Pick: Kent State -9½

**Wolfpack** · 10-05-07, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by Willie Bee

The UNLV - Air Force picks were made by two different people.

I gotcha

**Willie Bee** · 10-06-07, 11:32 AM

Lay it on LSU Tigers (-7) versus Florida Gators

Game Time: 10/06/2007 08:00 PM -
By: Mike Davis | 10starpicks.com

LSU will have their Bayou Backers out in full force tonight in a key SEC contest against Florida. Take the Tigers as TD-favorites at home against the Gators in this one.

The Florida Gators are headed to the Bayou to face the new Number 1 team in the nation. Florida should be fired up and ready to play as they are coming off an upset loss at the hands of the Auburn Tigers.

Let me say that again -- The Auburn Tigers beat the Florida Gators. What? That tells me a lot about this Florida football team. They are young and inexperienced especially on defense. They are running into an LSU football team that is loaded from top to bottom. LSU has implemented a two QB system that seems to be working for them.

However, the key in this game will be the inability of the Florida offense to move the ball. Florida relies a good bit on Tim Tebow's ability to run and that will simply not work against this LSU defense. This is one of the best defenses in recent memory in college football. Florida had troubles last season getting first downs vs. LSU and this year it will be worse.

Playing at night, playing at home, and playing the defending National Champions -- LSU will be ready! This Florida team will be ready next season but they will struggle vs. the better teams this year. Take the LSU Tigers.

Free Pick: LSU -7 (-109)

**Willie Bee** · 10-06-07, 11:33 AM

Iowa Hawkeyes +9½ at Penn State

Game Time: 10/06/2007 03:30 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Hawkeyes have beaten the Nittany Lions straight up five straight times, with three wins coming here in Penn State. With both teams struggling, take the points with Iowa here.

The Iowa Hawkeyes and Penn State Nittany Lions have both slumped in recent weeks, but this is a very generous price for the Hawkeyes here in what is basically a toss-up.

After all, Penn State simply does not have the offense to be giving this many points to anyone. Sure they looked good in their first three games vs. Florida International, Buffalo and Notre Dame, but who wouldn’t? Reality set in one conference play began, as the Nittany Lions are 0-2 inside the conference while scoring a total of just 29 points.

Now Iowa is 2-3, but they lost by just two points to Iowa State and by four points to fifth-ranked Wisconsin, both on the road. Yes they are off of a bad home loss to Indiana, but we actually feel that the Hoosiers are underrated, and we expect Iowa to bounce back from that performance.

Also, Iowa has won the last five head-to-head meetings between these schools with three of those wins coming right here in Happy Valley, so we look for the Hawkeyes to at the very least take this game down to the wire.

Free Pick: Iowa +9½

**onlooker** · 10-06-07, 11:37 AM

Dave Cokin: Kent State -9.5
Mike Davis: LSU -7

I am on both of these.

**goldengoat** · 10-06-07, 11:41 AM

what are the records of these people? that should be mandatory beside anything they print