Solid plays and writeups thread week 5

**imgv94** · 09-27-07, 05:50 PM

Writeups....

4 Star Selection
****RUTGERS (-16.5) 35 Maryland 7
12:30 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
Rutgers is a dominating team and the Scarlet Knights are certainly better than they were a year ago. The Rutgers defense has allowed just 3.5 yards per play in their 3 games (to teams that would combine to average only 4.8 yppl against an average defense) and the offense is downright explosive this season with Heisman candidate RB Ray Rice (144 yards per game at 5.8 ypr) being over shadowed by quarterback Mike Teel, who has averaged an incredible 15.1 yards per pass play so far this season. Rutgers is not going to continue to average 22.3 yards per completion but Teel would still be averaging 11.3 yppp if the yards per completion were adjusted downward to a more reasonable 17 ypc. Overall the Scarlet Knights’ attack has averaged 526 yards at 8.6 yppl and 46 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 6.8 yppl to an average team. Maryland’s defense is pretty good against the pass (5.2 yppp against teams that would average 5.7 yppp) but the Terrapins won’t be able to stop Ray Rice from having a big day with a defensive front that’s allowed 5.3 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 5.0 yprp). The real problem for Maryland is an offense that has managed just 4.6 yppl in 4 games against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Rutgers will dominate that unit and gradually pull away for a big win. My ratings favor Rutgers by 24 points and the Scarlet Knights apply to a very good 198-91-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator. That indicator is 80-27-1 ATS when applying to home favorites of more than 14 points and I’ll take Rutgers in a 4-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less, for 3-Stars from -17 ½ to -20 points and for 2-Stars at -20 ½ or -21 points.

3 Star Selection
***KENTUCKY (-22.0) 42 Florida Atl. 10
10:00 AM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
Florida Atlantic is 3-1 with a win over Big 10 representative Minnesota, but that win a couple of weeks ago has the Owls overrated heading into this game against a very good Kentucky team. Beating Minnesota is not that big a deal given how bad the Gophers’ defense has been this year (6.8 yppl allowed) and the fact that Florida Atlantic only won that game by 3 points despite being +7 in turnover margin. Actually, to win by only 3 points while being +7 in turnovers is actually a reason to look at that game as a negative for the Owls. The week prior to that gift win was a 6-42 loss at Oklahoma State, which is the kind of result I’m expecting here. Despite being 3-1 Florida Atlantic has actually been out-scored by 2.5 points per game against a schedule that is about 10 points worse than average, and that’s even with the benefit of being +13 in turnover margin. The Owls would be losing by about 15 points per game against that weak schedule if they were even in turnovers and it’s certainly unlikely that they’ll be positive in turnovers against a Kentucky team whose quarterback just set the NCAA record for most passes thrown without an interception. Andre Woodson has thrown only 14 interceptions in 4 years on 894 passes (none this year) for a ridiculously low 1.6% interception rate and that rate is an even lower 1.3% since last season. Without the turnovers in their favor Florida Atlantic won’t be able to compete in this game. The Owls rate at 0.7 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppl to an average team) while their defense is 0.4 yppl worse than average. Kentucky has a very good offense that has averaged 6.7 yppl and 47 points per game (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average attack) and the Wildcats are a bit better than average defensively. Kentucky also has a huge advantage in special teams, so don’t be surprised if Kentucky runs back a kick for a touchdown while at the very least being set up with great field position the entire game. My math model favors Kentucky by 32 points in this game and I’ll take Kentucky in a 3-Star Best Bet at -23 points or less and for 2-Stars from -23 ½ to -25 points. I’ll also consider the UNDER (67 is the total) a Strong Opinion.

3 Star Selection
***HOUSTON (-11.0) 38 East Carolina 17
04:00 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
Houston’s opening 27-48 loss at Oregon doesn’t seem so bad now that the Ducks have proven themselves to be one of the nation’s top-10 teams and the Cougars actually racked up 545 yards in that loss. Houston’s offense has continued their fine play, averaging 6.4 yards per play for the season, and they’ll be even better now that freshman quarterback Case Keenum is entrenched as the starter after sharing duties with sophomore Blake Joseph the first 3 games. Keenum has averaged 7.7 yards per pass play on his 71 pass plays (against teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppp) and Keenum’s passing combined with the running of Anthony Alridge (1313 yards at 8.8 ypr since last year, 6.4 ypr this season) gives the Cougars a very potent offense and East Carolina’s defense doesn’t appear up to the challenge of containing them (ECU has allowed 6.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team). The Pirates are going to give up some points and their offense doesn’t appear capable of keeping up. East Carolina has averaged 4.8 yppl with quarterback Patrick Pinkney under center (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and Houston has been decent defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl). My ratings favor Houston by 15 ½ points and East Carolina applies to a very negative 17-66- 3 ATS situation. I’ll take Houston in a 3-Star Best Bet at -13 points or less and for 2-Stars at -13 ½ or -14 points.

3 Star Selection
***TOLEDO 33 Western Mich (-1.5) 24
04:00 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
Toledo started the season with 3 embarrassing losses, but the Rockets’ upset home win over Iowa State should give them renewed enthusiasm heading into this week. Toledo, in fact, applies to a very good 57-16 ATS home momentum situation that is based on their upset win and the Rockets are now 27-7 ATS in their history at home when not favored by 28 points or more. Western Michigan, meanwhile, applies to a negative 44-82 ATS game 5 situation. These teams are pretty equal on a yards per play basis, as Toledo rates at 0.4 yards per play worse than average on offense and 1.1 yppl worse than average on defense while the Broncos are 1.2 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively. Western Michigan does have better special teams, but my math model favors Toledo by 1 and the situation is enough to make Toledo a Best Bet. I’ll take Toledo in a 3-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and I’ll downgrade Toledo to a 2-Star Best Bet at pick or -1 (strong opinion from -1 ½ to -2 ½).

2 Star Selection
**Buffalo 27 BALL ST. (-15.0) 35
09:00 AM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
Buffalo was a Strong Opinion loser as a 3 ½ point home dog to Baylor last week, but that was more bad luck than bad play as the Bulls out-gained Baylor 5.0 yards per play to 4.7 yppl but were done in by 5 turnovers and a -3 turnover margin. Buffalo had only turned the ball over 4 times in their previous 3 games, so last week’s spread loss was a bit of a fluke. That loss has served to keep the Bulls as an underrated team while Ball State’s near victory against a Nebraska team in a letdown following the USC game has the Cardinals a bit overrated. Buffalo looks like a good play as a big underdog against a Ball State team with a horrible defense. The Cardinals have allowed an average of 6.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team and Buffalo can take advantage of that defense. The Bulls seem to have turned the corner in Turner Gill’s second season as head coach and the offense, which improved by 8.3 points in his first season is now about average on a national scale. Buffalo has averaged 5.1 yppl against 4 teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl and they averaged 5.7 yppl and 31.5 points against sub-par Temple and Baylor defensive units that are actually 0.7 yppl better than Ball State’s defense. My math model projects 6.2 yppl for Buffalo in this game, which will make it tough for Ball State to pull away even with their good offense. The Cardinals have averaged 6.4 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team), but Buffalo isn’t so bad on defense this season with 9 returning starters on that side of the ball. In fact, the Bulls have allowed a respectable 5.6 yppl to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average stop unit. Overall, Buffalo rates as average on offense and just 0.3 yppl worse than average on defense while Ball State is 0.5 yppl better than average on offense and 1.3 yppl worse than average defensively. Buffalo has actually been the better team from the line of scrimmage after compensating for strength of opponent. Ball State is a bit less likely to turn the ball over and the Cardinals are a couple of points better in special teams, but Buffalo looks like a good play getting so many points from a defenseless team. I’ll take Buffalo in a 2-Star Best Bet at +15 points or more.

2 Star Selection
**Kent State (-2.5) 33 OHIO 24
12:00 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
Kent State is a much better team than Ohio and the only reason that hasn’t shown up in the scores of these two teams is because Kent is -9 in turnover margin while Ohio is +7 in turnovers. Kent is not due to become positive in turnovers, but they are likely to be much less negative while Ohio is likely to be much less positive in turnover margin from this point on. With the turnovers not likely to be so disparate in this game the Golden Flashes should win pretty handily, as they are much better on both sides of the ball. Kent has out-gained their opponents 5.5 yards per play to 4.8 yppl this season and they rate at 0.2 yppl better than average offensively and just 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense after compensating for schedule strength. Ohio, meanwhile, has been out-gained 4.7 yppl to 5.9 yppl despite facing an easier schedule than Kent has played. The Bobcats are 1.1 yppl worse than average on offense and 1.2 yppl worse than average on defense – so expect Kent to dominate this game from the line of scrimmage. Ohio does have a huge edge in special teams and Kent has a 2 point disadvantage in projected turnovers, but my math model still favors the Golden Flashes by 6 ½ points in this game. Kent also applies to a decent 47-22-2 ATS bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s upset loss at Akron. Kent would have to be at least -2 in turnover margin to lose this game, which isn’t likely, so I’ll take Kent State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 ½ points or less and for 3-Stars if they become an underdog.

2 Star Selection
**Florida Intl. 24 MIDDLE TENN (-11.0) 27
04:00 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
Middle Tennessee State lost to Western Kentucky last week and they shouldn’t be trusted laying big points with a backup quarterback running the offense against a Florida International team that is not as bad as they appear to be. Florida International has played a tough schedule of teams (Penn State, Miami-Florida, Kansas) and they competed well against the only mediocre team that they faced, losing just 10-26 as a 23 ½ point dog at Maryland. The Panthers also lost just 9-23 at Miami-Florida and they’re certainly better defensively than Middle Tennessee’s banged up stop unit. Florida International rates at 0.9 yards per play worse than average defensively (6.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team). Middle Tennessee, meanwhile, has allowed 7.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team, so the Blue Raiders are 1.6 yppl worse than average defensively. Middle Tennessee’s offense will be led by freshman quarterback Dwight Dasher for a second straight week, as Dasher is filling in for injured veteran starter Joe Craddock, who was having a nice season before injuring his back at LSU. Dasher is a good run (befitting his name), but he averaged only 5.5 yards per pass play last week in the home loss to a Western Kentucky team that would allow 6.9 yppp on the road to an average quarterback. Overall, the Blue Raiders managed just 4.7 yppl against a team that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team in Dasher’s only start. Florida International is certainly not a good offensive team, but their offensive rating of -0.8 yppl is considerably better than Middle Tennessee’s -1.6 yppl defense. What has made Florida International appear to be worse than they are is the 9 fumbles that they’ve lost in 4 games, which is mostly just random bad luck. My math favors Middle Tennessee by only 5 ½ points in this game with Craddock out for the Raiders and FIU applies to a solid 63-24-1 ATS road underdog blowout bounce-back situation. I’ll take Florida International in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 3-Stars at +13 or more.

2 Star Selection
**NEW MEXICO 30 BYU (-5.5) 28
05:30 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
New Mexico has won 3 straight games since being upset by UTEP in their opener and the Lobos are in a good spot to continue their winning ways today. New Mexico applies to a very strong 49-8-1 ATS subset of a 147-65-3 ATS home momentum situation while BYU applies to a negative 14-46-1 ATS road favorite letdown angle. The Cougars are certainly a worthy opponent with a potent offense and a solid defense, but the BYU defense was torched for 478 yards at 12.3 yards per pass play the Tulsa as a road favorite two weeks ago and New Mexico’s Donovan Porterie, who’s averaged 7.7 yppp (against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average QB), is capable of moving the ball through the air in this game. My math model favors BYU by 7 points but the situation is strong enough to give up some line value and I’ll take New Mexico in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7 points or more (Strong Opinion at +4 or +4 ½ points).

Strong Opinion
S. FLORIDA 24 West Virginia (-7.0) 27
05:00 PM Pacific, 28-Sep-07
South Florida has already won at Auburn and the Bulls are certainly capable of upsetting West Virginia considering that they beat the Mountaineers 24-19 in Morgantown last season. The Bulls held West Virginia’s vaunted rushing attack to just 154 yards at 4.7 yards per rushing play and allowed just 310 yards at 5.3 yards per play in that game (great considering that West Virginia averaged 7.0 yprp and 7.3 yppl for the season). West Virginia’s offense is just as good this season as it was in 2006, but South Florida’s defense has been even better this season so far, as the Bulls have yielded just 3.4 yprp and 3.3 yppl in their first 3 games (against teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defense). The Bulls’ offense has been a bit sluggish, as sophomore quarterback Matt Grothe has averaged just 5.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback) after averaging 7.1 yppp as a freshman. West Virginia’s defense is good but not great (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.8 yppl against an average team), so South Florida should be able to move the ball at a decent clip. My ratings favor South Florida by 6 ½ points, so the line is fair, but the Bulls apply to a 59-11 ATS home underdog momentum situation that has won a lot of games for me in recent years. West Virginia, meanwhile, applies to a negative 34-78-1 ATS situation. The only reason that South Florida is not a Best Bet is because West Virginia coach Rich Rodriquez is a perfect 9-0 ATS in conference revenge games. The general situations strongly favoring South Florida are more significant than the team trend favoring West Virginia so I’ll consider South Florida a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.

Strong Opinion
Pittsburgh 19 VIRGINIA (-6.0) 20
04:00 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
Virginia beat Georgia Tech at home last week while Pitt lost at home to U Conn, and those two results have given us plenty of line value on the Panthers. Pitt only lost to Connecticut because they were -5 in turnovers, as the Panthers out-gained a solid Huskies squad 4.7 yards per play to 4.1 yppl. For the season the Panthers have out- gained their opponents 5.1 yppl to 3.7 yppl, which is very good considering their opponents would be out-gained by a combined average of just 0.4 yppl by an average team. The Pittsburgh defense has been especially good and they should have no problems containing a Virginia offense that has averaged only 4.7 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. The Panthers are starting freshman quarterback Pat Bostick in place of backup Kevan Smith, who had replaced injured starter Bill Stull. Bostick took over in the first half of last week’s game and completed 27 of 41 passes for 230 yards and 3 interceptions. Those aren’t good numbers, but they’re not much worse than what Smith had produced. Virginia’s defense has been only slightly better than average so far (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team), but the Cavaliers are well below average overall from the line of scrimmage (-0.9 yppl on offense and +0.1 yppl on defense) while Pitt has been very good in compensated yards per play differential. My math model favors Pitt by 4 ½ points in this game, but Virginia has always played much better at home under coach Al Groh (27- 12 ATS) than they have on the road (12-23 ATS). If I only used Virginia’s two home games the math would favor the Cavs by 1 point and Bostick would have to throw 3 interceptions in this game for Pittsburgh not to be likely to cover. That may happen but it’s likely that the freshman will make better decisions with a full week of getting first team reps. I’m a little hesitant to call for a Best Bet with a freshman quarterback on the road making his first start, but Pitt has a strong defense that should at least keep this close even if Bostick really struggles. I’ll consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more.

Strong Opinion
TULSA (-21.0) 49 UAB 23
04:00 PM Pacific, 29-Sep-07
Tulsa lost 21-62 at home to Oklahoma last Friday night but lost in that blowout was the fact that quarterback Paul Smith lit up a very good Oklahoma pass defense for over 300 yards at 7.4 yards per pass play. Smith is now averaging 10.0 yppp for the season (against teams that would combine to allow only 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback. Tulsa actually has the nation’s best compensated pass offense and it’s scary to think of what kind of numbers Smith might put up against a UAB defense that’s surrendered 7.8 yppp to teams that would combine to average only 5.5 yppp against an average defensive team. The Blazers gave up 9.5 yppp to both Michigan State and Florida State, who have proven to be only slightly better than average passing teams. Tulsa’s defense has been victimized the last two weeks by the very good offensive units of BYU and Oklahoma (allowed 7.8 yards per play and 109 total points), but the Hurricanes gave up only 4.4 yppl to a UL Monroe offense that’s better than UAB’s sorry attack (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). The Blazers, meanwhile, scored just 22 points against Alcorn State, whose defense is certainly worse than Tulsa’s defense. Tulsa applies to a solid 75-29-2 ATS big home favorite bounce-back situation and I’ll consider Tulsa a Strong Opinion at -21 points or less.

**nevadaside** · 09-27-07, 05:52 PM

nice cloud cover

**MJFtheGenius** · 09-27-07, 05:55 PM

Stop posting this morons picks, hes lost his touch with the game

**imgv94** · 09-27-07, 06:25 PM

Then why not post them to fade them?

**rob** · 09-27-07, 06:31 PM

thanks for posting...

**MJFtheGenius** · 09-27-07, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by imgv94

Then why not post them to fade them?

good point

**laxdjock** · 09-27-07, 07:15 PM

I love Rutgers and Houston, and pretty strong on KY. My big money is on RU this week to roll over UMD. I'm hoping RR gets moving, and that opens up the passing game. I'm thinking they'll get out to a quick start, so I may take rutgers and give the pts in the 1st half.

**swifty** · 09-27-07, 07:25 PM

Akron (2-2) at Connecticut (4-0)
Line: Connecticut by 13.5.
Saturday, 12:00 ET

Akron was able to keep up with Ohio State, so why can't it come within two touchdowns of Connecticut, who nearly lost to Temple? The Huskies actually defeated Pittsburgh last week as a huge underdog, so I have a feeling they'll be a little flat against an "inferior" opponent.

Prediction:
Connecticut 17, Arkon 7
Akron +13.5