Week 5 Plays from BuddyBear

**EBone** · 09-26-07, 09:31 PM

BB,

I have an interest in Miami-OH, Pitt and Fla Atlantic. Pitt is intriguing after the whooping they just took from UConn. I'd like to see a hook and then I might jump on board with you. I'm having a hard timing digesting that Syracuse is a favorite over anybody. And UK may be looking for a breather here against Fla Atlantic which has a cupcake name but they aint no cupcake.

I'm actually thinking the other side in ECU/Houston and Cincy/SDSU. I'm interested in hearing a write up on LA-Lafayette. I actually have NO OPINION in that game but you obviously like it. I'm interested in hearing why.

Nevada, Stanford and GT garner a NO OPINION from me as well. I wish you luck, sir.

E

**BuddyBear** · 09-26-07, 09:49 PM

Ebone...i'll get back to you soon. I've got a ton of grading to start tonight. I admit it's a risk backing ULL in this spot b/c UCF falls into some strong sytem plays that play on big favorites, but I'll lay out my reasons shortly. Perhaps if it dips down to -20 i might come back with UCF for a unit but for now I am going to stick with ULL.

**BuddyBear** · 09-26-07, 11:09 PM

okay, here are just some general thoughts. I agree about Miami(OH) as a live home dog. Really who is Syracuse to be laying points on the road to anyone. You have to ask yourself, do you want to just pay attention to last week with what Syracuse did or do you want to evaluate them on their entire body of work...the first 3 weeks, outside of Notre Dame there were as bad as anyone offensively. True, they had one of the biggest upsets in NCAAF history as a +38 pt dog and +10000 ML winer, but before that they were horrid and keep in mind that Midd Tenn State was even more impressive against UL a few weaks earlier. As far as I am concerned, UL is a dead horse and while shocking as the upset was I am not going to read too much into it. Similary, I can't read too much into Miami(OH) horrible showing in Boulder. It was a tough situation facing a team with more talent, across the country, and a very strong defense. You got the sense that Miami(OH) packed it in quickly.....I'll take my chances this week with Miami(OH).

Remember last week where I mentioned that BYU who opened -9 and closed at -15 was a strong play b/c AF was coming off back-to-back SU wins as an underdog. Same situation applies this week with Kentucky and Virginia. I'm looking to fade both those faves. I am bit concerned about Pitt/UVA in that it is a big revenge spot for the Cavs. Even so, Pitt's defense has played real well and to me, getting +7 was a risk I had to take it before it got to +6.5. FAU can play as well.....Kentucky maybe fatigued after 2 big outright wins against UL and ARK. They also have some big showdowns after this game and this falls into a sandwhich spot. Throw in the fact that FAU can play and has one of the higher levels of experience among Sun Belt teams helps the cause. In addition, while UK is a vastly improved team, they still have a below average defense. You have a big spread with a team that can score against a team that has a weak defense. If FAU can score 21+ pts in this game they should be able to cover unless UK scores at will. Keep in mind also, UK struggled aginst ULM last year in a similar spot.

**BuddyBear** · 09-26-07, 11:09 PM

In terms of ULL, here are some reasons why they jump out at me. If you go strictly by power ratings the line is about right. UCF has played extremely well this season exceeding even my own expectations. However, they've now played 2 games in a rown in their brand new stadium and covered both. The first an emotional battle against Texas and then a solid performence against a conference rival in Memphis.....Both games I believe extracted a lot of emotion from UCF and after this game they go n on the road for 2 straight conference game. Thus we have a sandwhich game scenario shaping up as well as a possible letdown scenario. Second, their strong performences against UT and Memphis has served to inflate this line somewhat. It is likely that 2 weeks ago this line may have -17/-17.5 but b/c of their strong performences we are seeing a little bit extra attached if you want to back UCF. Third, I looked at the past 3 years worth of road games for ULL and they have played 18 games on the road. In only 3 of those games did they lose by more than 21+ points: lost to #2 Texas in 2005 60-3; lost #8 LSU 45-3 in 2006; lost to Texas A&M 51-7 in 2006. The other 15 games have all fallen by less than a margin of 21. In addition, ULL has a positive ATS mark on the road as an away dog in the last 7 years (18-17 ATS). One note is that this ULL team did beat Houston outright last year in their stadium as +17 dogs so you can assume they have some confidence and believe they can win this game...not like going to Texas or LSU knowing you are not going to win.

That's more the technical aspects of why I like ULL. To the actual content, many people do not realize that ULL has the #6 rushing attack in the country (UCF has #12) so both teams run the ball very well and pass the ball at about the same level of efficiency. In fact, ULL has a slightly higher yardage avg on total offense so my expectation is that they will be able to move the ball, burn some clock and put up some points (that's my hope). Despite not having an experienced QB, ULL does features the most experienced team in the Sun Belt conference which should help playing on the road. UCF has a qb in Kyle Israel but he is very marginal at best and like ULL they are more likely to rely on their running game. Both teams are similar defensively against the pass but UCF does have a decided advantage against the run...whereas they are about average in stopping the run, ULL just is not very good ranking nearer the bottom in that category statistically. Again, I like to back teams that can run the ball and while UCF can run just as well and defended it better I feel that ULL will be competitive enough to keep this one within the number and there of course is always the possibility of a backdoor with a big spread like this.

Of course I could be completely wrong...and I do want to emphasize that UCF falls into some strong systems this weekend that play on big home favorites so please don't follow me blindly if you are desperate for a winner but I am going to roll the dice and take my chances with ULL this weekend.

Good luck....

**austintx05** · 09-26-07, 11:16 PM

gl buddy

**pokernut9999** · 09-26-07, 11:21 PM

Really like FAU with the points. KY should be due a let down after 4 straight with the last 2 big emotional wins. With 3 big conference games coming up this should be a let down game and be close.

**bmac** · 09-26-07, 11:31 PM

BOL buddy...

**nevadaside** · 09-27-07, 12:36 AM

BB,
Hope you got a belt on holdin those pants up with all those pts in your pockets, otherwise you gonna be lookin like one a doze gangstas with de pants hangin round de quadriceps.

Curious what steers your play for NEV-3.5?
I was planning on UNLV+3.5 or better. Weather is gonna be warm, Mackay stadium isn't really an adverse atmosphere to the road team; so what edge to you see laying over a field goal with NEV. I just feel UNLV is an all around stronger team this year.....obviously I could be wrong.

Would love to hear your thoughts.

A big GL to you this SAT/SUN.

**pags11** · 09-27-07, 03:17 AM

excellent thoughts here buddy...GL to you this week bro...

**BuddyBear** · 09-27-07, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by nevadaside

BB,

Curious what steers your play for NEV-3.5?
I was planning on UNLV+3.5 or better. Weather is gonna be warm, Mackay stadium isn't really an adverse atmosphere to the road team; so what edge to you see laying over a field goal with NEV. I just feel UNLV is an all around stronger team this year.....obviously I could be wrong.

Would love to hear your thoughts.

A big GL to you this SAT/SUN.

Thanks NS. I do like the Wolfpack in this spot. I am not sure if you are form Nevada but Nevada does have a very strong homefield. Maybe it does not get the recognition that say Boise, or Hawaii or Louisville do but they have one of the strongest homefields in the country. In fact, they are 13-4 ATS there in their last 17. Meanwhile, UNLV is a dreadful road team. Their win against Utah St was their first in Mike Samfords tenure and ended a 3 year drought of not winning on the road....not to mention that was a very tough game for the Rebels.

Indeed they are much improved than last year....but they hit the road this week in a big rivalry game. Chris Ault and Nevada take this game very seriously and I am not sure Mike Samford does. I also think their performence against Wisconsin is a little phoney just b/c UW is a very overrated team this and the win against Utah....well that was impressive.

I'll take my chances with the home team here and bet against the Rebels with an inexperienced QB on the road. Should be tough sledding for him and plus Nevada is coming off a bye and hasnt' faced real competion in weeks. They'll be pumped for this game.

Good luck....

**onlooker** · 09-27-07, 03:41 PM

I am with you on one, and against you on another. I like Virginia -6 and Stanford +15.5.

Good luck as always BuddyBear.

**bigboydan** · 09-27-07, 04:07 PM

I'm really liking your Georgia Tech play Double B. In fact I'm taking them on the ML myself though.

BOL with your entire card sir

**regularguy** · 09-27-07, 04:24 PM

I've been chewing on the Nevada/UNLV game a bit, BuddyBear. I have UNLV +4 (I wish I had the +6 that some got on early on).

Believe me, UNLV will take this game seriously. This is a significant rivalry in Nevada -- the "Battle for Nevada." The winner gets the Fremont Cannon for a year. (See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fremont_Cannon)

I don't think Nevada is living up to expectations. They haven't beaten anybody -- well, Nicholls State at home, for what that is worth. It appears to me that they have some pretty serious weaknesses (especially on the lines of scrimmage).

Chris Ault is an excellent coach, no question. And there is a significant homefield advantage in Reno. But, I am one who believes strongly in momentum, and UNLV has that right now, big time. Also, I think that sometimes, in football, time off is not as helpful as people might think. Barring injuries, there's a lot to be said for getting a team combat-hardened by week 4 or 5. I don't think Nevada is there yet, and it's going to take them a few quarters to get going in this one, in my opinion. Look for UNLV to get an early lead.

Anyway, those are some of my thoughts.

Nevada could pull this one out. If they do, I will be impressed. If they do it in a real close game, I win.

By the way, here are the outcomes of the Battle for Nevada, since 1990:

1990 Nevada wins 26-14
1991 Nevada wins 50-8
1992 Nevada wins 14-10
1993 Nevada wins 49-14
1994 UNLV wins 32-27
1995 Nevada wins 55-32
1996 Nevada wins 54-17
1997 Nevada wins 31-14
1998 Nevada wins 31-20
1999 Nevada wins 26-12
2000 UNLV wins 38-7
2001 UNLV wins 27-12
2002 UNLV wins 21-17
2003 UNLV wins 16-12
2004 UNLV wins 48-13
2005 Nevada wins 22-14
2006 Nevada wins 31-3

Good luck this week.

**nevadaside** · 09-30-07, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

Thanks NS. I do like the Wolfpack in this spot. I am not sure if you are form Nevada but Nevada does have a very strong homefield. Maybe it does not get the recognition that say Boise, or Hawaii or Louisville do but they have one of the strongest homefields in the country. In fact, they are 13-4 ATS there in their last 17. Meanwhile, UNLV is a dreadful road team. Their win against Utah St was their first in Mike Samfords tenure and ended a 3 year drought of not winning on the road....not to mention that was a very tough game for the Rebels.

Indeed they are much improved than last year....but they hit the road this week in a big rivalry game. Chris Ault and Nevada take this game very seriously and I am not sure Mike Samford does. I also think their performence against Wisconsin is a little phoney just b/c UW is a very overrated team this and the win against Utah....well that was impressive.

I'll take my chances with the home team here and bet against the Rebels with an inexperienced QB on the road. Should be tough sledding for him and plus Nevada is coming off a bye and hasnt' faced real competion in weeks. They'll be pumped for this game.

Good luck....

Excellent call here BB.

I just took UNLV in a 10pt Teas.....glad I took those 10 too.

**pags11** · 09-30-07, 04:35 PM

congrats on another positive week buddy...