Week 5 NCAA Football Picks - The Chart

**nep1293** · 09-23-07, 09:28 PM

WEEK 5 PICKS
Southern Mississippi (+11.5) @ Boise St ..... 51.67%
Memphis (+4) @ Arkansas St ..... 58.91%
West Virginia (-7) @ South Florida ..... 54.60%
Duke @ Miami, FL (-23.5) ..... 59.62%
North Carolina (+17.5) @ Virginia Tech ..... 51.66%
Akron @ Connecticut (-13) ..... 55.50%
Indiana @ Iowa (-13.5) .....55.50%
Mississippi St @ South Carolina (-15) ..... 55.89%
Temple (+8) @ Army ..... 50.81%
Air Force @ Navy (-3) .... 52.19%
Buffalo (+16.5) @ Ball St ..... 51.60%
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan (-3) ..... 52.19%
Michigan (-16.5) @ Northwestern ..... 54.04%
Syracuse (-2.5) @ Miami, OH ..... 50.56%
Utah St @ Utah (-21) ..... 58.13%
California (+3.5) @ Oregon ..... 60.90%
Mississippi @ Georgia (-15) ..... 55.89%
Auburn (+17.5) @ Florida ..... 51.66%
UCLA (+2) @ Oregon St ..... 50.42%
Penn St @ Illinois (+3.5) ..... 51.18%
Michigan St @ Wisconsin (-7.5) ..... 59.51%
Iowa St @ Nebraska (-22.5) ..... 59.55%
Kansas St @ Texas (-15) ..... 55.89%
UNLV @ Nevada (-6) ..... 57.86%
UTEP @ SMU (-1.5) ..... 51.47%
Hawaii (-27) @ Idaho ..... 61.51%
LSU @ Tulane (+40) ..... 55.32%
Colorado St @ TCU (-12.5) ..... 51.33%
Eastern Michigan @ Vanderbilt (-20) ..... 56.66%
Western Michigan (-2) @ Toledo ..... 50.56%
Kent St (+2) @ Ohio ..... 50.42%
Oklahoma @ Colorado (+22.5) ..... 57.71%
Baylor (+17) @ Texas A&M ..... 51.66%
Pittsburgh @ Virginia (-6.5) ..... 57.86%
East Carolina (+9.5) @ Houston ..... 50.58%
UAB @ Tulsa (-18) ..... 51.00%
Louisville (-9) @ NC St ..... 52.72%
Clemson @ Georgia Tech (+3) ..... 57.58%
Maryland @ Rutgers (-13) ..... 55.50%
Ohio St @ Minnesota (+21.5) ..... 57.61%
USC @ Washington (+20.5) ..... 57.00%
Notre Dame @ Purdue (-21.5) ..... 58.13%
BYU @ New Mexico (+7.5) ..... 57.00%
Washington St @ Arizona (-1.5) ..... 51.47%
Arizona St @ Stanford (+15) ..... 53.41%
Louisiana Tech @ Fresno St (-12.5) ..... 51.33%
Cincinnati @ San Diego St (+14) ..... 53.20%
Louisiana-Lafayette @ UCF (-21.5) ..... 58.13%
Florida International @ MTSU (-12.5) ..... 51.33%
Florida Atlantic @ Kentucky (-23.5) ..... 59.62%
North Texas @ Arkansas (-36) ..... 57.67%
Louisiana-Monroe @ Troy (-12.5) ..... 51.33%

**austintx05** · 09-23-07, 11:48 PM

gl

**txraddoc** · 09-25-07, 10:22 AM

Quick question. For the games which are not an official pick, who gets the edge? I'm interested in the WV-South Florida game.

Thanks!

**VolinArizona** · 09-25-07, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by txraddoc

Quick question. For the games which are not an official pick, who gets the edge? I'm interested in the WV-South Florida game.

Thanks!

It's in the chart, West Virginia -7 54.60%

**nep1293** · 09-25-07, 11:01 AM

Originally posted by VolinArizona

It's in the chart, West Virginia -7 54.60%

Way to read the chart!

Any team with the points listed next to them is the pick the chart favors, no matter how small the advantage is.

I actually like South Florida in this game, I don't know whether I'll bet it or not though.

**taurus** · 09-25-07, 11:06 AM

Just caught up with this.
VERY interesting, particularly as I play a lot of games.
Thanks for posting
I'll be tracking and maybe do a little coatailing
Best of luck..

**swifty** · 09-25-07, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by txraddoc

Quick question. For the games which are not an official pick, who gets the edge? I'm interested in the WV-South Florida game.

Thanks!

SF will win over 10 points

**swifty** · 09-25-07, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by nep1293

Last Weeks Record
Official Picks (12-10 , 54.54%)
All Over 50% Picks (23-25 , 47.92%)

Yearly Record
Official Picks (54-43-1 , 55.67%)
All Over 50% Picks (96-94-2 , 50.53%)

Here is the breakdown by percent:
50% (7-15)
51% (11-13)
52% (9-15)
53% (9-4-1)
54% (10-10)
55% (7-5)
56% (8-4)
57% (9-8)
58% (10-4)
59% (7-3)
60% (6-4-1)
61% (3-5)
62% (0-1)
63% (0-2)
64% (0-1)

The middle of the chart is real solid. Still have the losses coming from the top and bottom percents. As long as those 55%-60% picks keep hitting it should be a good season.

I am not counting Tulane as an official pick even though they are above 55%. There aren't too many games to use the history from so I am tossing that game away.

58% (10-4)
59% (7-3)

I would play all games at 58% to 59% and win 50% of those games or alittle higher?? what would you rank 75% on most wins?

**txraddoc** · 09-25-07, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by nep1293

Way to read the chart!

Any team with the points listed next to them is the pick the chart favors, no matter how small the advantage is.

I actually like South Florida in this game, I don't know whether I'll bet it or not though.

Duh!! I should've figured that out. Thanks for the heads up.

**txraddoc** · 09-25-07, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by nep1293

Way to read the chart!

Any team with the points listed next to them is the pick the chart favors, no matter how small the advantage is.

I actually like South Florida in this game, I don't know whether I'll bet it or not though.

I feel the same way. Winpicks likes SF as well but the trends favor WV slightly. GL if you bet!

**BuddyBear** · 09-25-07, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by swifty

58% (10-4)
59% (7-3)

I would play all games at 58% to 59% and win 50% of those games or alittle higher?? what would you rank 75% on most wins?

Too small a sample size to infer anything......

**nep1293** · 09-25-07, 09:33 PM

BuddyBear is right. That is too small of a sample size. The problem with that strategy is that games that were 61% and above have been losing, so if that continues they will play their way into 58 and 59% picks. So then you'd be stuck with picks that have been losing on the year. That is why I'm hesitant to go below the 55% mark even though 53 % and up would have netted slightly more profit on the year.

Some of the things I have noticed are the following.

Recommended picks (+20 to +29.5) have gone 8-1 this year.
Recommended picks (-20 to -29.5) have gone 15-6.

These games seem to be where the chunk of the profit has been.

**EBone** · 09-27-07, 11:05 AM

nep,

What does the chart have to say about Bama/Fla State? I do not see that game in your listing for this week. Either I'm blind as a bat or it is not there.

Please revise. Thanks.

E

**nep1293** · 09-28-07, 12:24 AM

Originally posted by EBone

nep,

What does the chart have to say about Bama/Fla State? I do not see that game in your listing for this week. Either I'm blind as a bat or it is not there.

Please revise. Thanks.

E

Alabama and Florida St is not listed because it is a neutral site game. I originally had it listed when I thought FSU was the home team, then I removed it.

I like Alabama in the game, I'll probably play the ML. That is just my pick though. There is no chart data for the neutral sites

**nep1293** · 09-28-07, 12:29 AM

I had Memphis +4.5 tonight. It goes down as a push for the chart though. Kind of a shame.

Another thing. Last Week's Northern Illinois/Idaho game was messed up. I had my records for PICK games reversed. PICK were supposed to be for the road team but I had Idaho listed.

I am going to update the records of the chart to reflect that game.

**pags11** · 09-28-07, 04:32 AM

GL this week nep...

**EBone** · 09-28-07, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by nep1293

Alabama and Florida St is not listed because it is a neutral site game. I originally had it listed when I thought FSU was the home team, then I removed it.

I like Alabama in the game, I'll probably play the ML. That is just my pick though. There is no chart data for the neutral sites

I am sure that you had posted that before about neutral site games. Sorry for the repeat.

Good luck to you this weekend.

E

**nep1293** · 09-30-07, 06:36 AM

Another solid week. 14-10-1 on the recommended picks

My actual record was 15-10. I won Memphis at +4.5 and Minnesota at +24, but lost New Mexico at +4.

This is pretty much what The Chart is designed to do. No real bad weeks, just build a solid profit over the entire season. I'd be happy just plugging along like this the whole year.

I should have Week 6 up tonight once the lines come out.