Saturday's Front Page NCAAF Picks (Sep 22)

**SBRforum Staff** · 09-20-07, 10:28 AM

UCLA Bruins -6½ vs Washington

Game Time: 09/22/2007 10:15 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Embarrassed at Utah last Saturday, the UCLA Bruins will bounce back at home this weekend against a Washington Huskies team they have had good luck with in recent years.

I played against the Bruins last week when they traveled to Utah. While I wasn't surprised that UCLA (-15) didn't cover, I certainly didn't expect the Bruins to get crushed by 38 points! That's exactly what happened though as Utah delivered a convincing 44-8 victory.

The Bruins won their first two games by double-digits and were ranked the #11 team in the country. However, they shot themselves in the foot against the Utes with numerous turnovers and penalties. All is not lost yet, though. The Bruins are still getting votes in the AP Poll and they're already 1-0 in Pac-10 play. Clearly, they're are a much better team than they showed. Off that embarrassment, I expect them to respond with a massive effort.

The Huskies also come off a lopsided (33-19) loss. That loss was nothing to be embarrassed about though as it came vs. #10 Ohio State and the Huskies actually led at halftime. Still, they found out that they aren't quite ready for primetime, folding in the second half. The Huskies, who have arguably the toughest schedule in the entire country, now travel to UCLA, a place where they haven't won in more than a decade. In fact, the Bruins are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five meetings here, winning by an average of 16.6 points.

I played on the Huskies when they upset the Bruins last season. This game is in California rather than Washington though, and this a better Bruins team. It's also a team that is coming off a humiliating loss and one that is looking to get some payback from last season. Expect the Bruins, 7-2-1 ATS the last 10 meetings, to re-establish their dominance in this series with a convincing win and cover.

Free Pick: UCLA -6½

**SBRforum Staff** · 09-20-07, 11:06 AM

Iowa Hawkeyes +8 at Wisconsin

Game Time: 09/22/2007 08:00 PM -
By: Jeff Alexander | procappers.com

Iowa lost in-state bragging rights with their loss at Iowa State last Saturday, and will head to Wisconsin looking to regain some respect. Expect the Hawkeyes to stay within the spread.

Coming off an embarrassing loss as huge favorites to an in-state rival, the Iowa Hawkeyes will rebound with a solid performance this week.

The Hawkeyes' defense has been superb not giving up a TD this season and Wisconsin’s run-first approach plays right into Iowa’s hands. Iowa is 22-7 against the spread versus good rushing teams that are averaging 4.75 rushing yards or more per carry since 1992.

Take the Hawkeyes plus the points as they give the Badgers a big scare in Madison.

Free Pick: Iowa +8

**SBRforum Staff** · 09-20-07, 11:34 AM

Iowa and Wisconsin Under 45 (-110)

Game Time: 09/22/2007 08:00 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

It's the perfect recipe for an Under this Saturday night in Madison with both Wisconsin and Iowa sporting good defenses and run-oriented offenses. Play the Hawkeyes and Badgers Under.

I think the Badgers were out partying amongst the Madison faithful early into the morning last Saturday because the defense that took the field isn’t the one we grew accustomed to watching last season.

To give up 31-points to The Citadel is unheard of, and I’ve got a good feeling the defense was worked extra hard in practice all week long. With them laying an egg last week in front of the home fans, I expect the Badgers 'D' to get back in the good graces of their coaches and fans with a stout effort in this contest.

Iowa is the last team I expect to put forth a Citadel type effort against Wisconsin. Head coach Kirk Ferentz’s club is off an embarrassing defeat in Ames where they lost to the Iowa State Cyclones by a 15-13 final count as 17-point road chalk. No doubt they were worked extra hard in practice this week as well, and I expect to see a much different Iowa club take the field in Madison.

That being said, the Hawkeyes' offense has been lackluster throughout its first three games. They only managed 16 points vs. Northern Illinois, and only 35 against a Syracuse team that just allowed Illinois to hang 41 on them last week in the Carrier Dome. Last week's 13-point effort in Ames was a disgrace, and they’re going to have to rely on their defense to set them up with great field position or force a turnover for them to put a crooked number on the scoreboard.

This is a battle between a pair of sound defensive teams backed by offenses with mediocre passing games and better than average ground attacks, the perfect recipe for an Under. Add to the mix this is each team's Big Ten opener and both coaches will be playing this one close to the vest. Iowa has had Wisconsin’s number of late winning four of the last five straight up, but Wiscy snagged last year's Heartland Trophy with a 24-21 win at Iowa. Look for the Hawkeyes to try and return the favor in a low scoring defensive slugfest.

Free Pick: Iowa-Wisconsin Under 45

**SBRforum Staff** · 09-20-07, 11:35 AM

UNLV Rebels +8½ vs. Utah Utes

Game Time: 09/22/2007 10:00 PM -
By: Ross Benjamin | rbenjaminsports.com

Utah's big upset over a mistake-prone UCLA squad last week is setting this spread too high. Back the UNLV Rebels as the home dogs this Saturday when they entertain the Utes.

Utah comes off a stunning 44-6 home win over UCLA. The final score is a bit deceiving considering the fact that Utah was the beneficiary of five UCLA turnovers and the total yardage in the game was virtually even. In spite of the 44 points last week this is not a very good offensive team.

UNLV had been very competitive early on until being whacked at home by a very good Hawaii team. I look for the Rebels to bounce back with a strong effort and the Utes to suffer a bit of a letdown after their upset win a week ago over a nationally ranked team. Laying more than a touchdown on the road is just a reaction by the books to adhere to public perception based on the results of both squads from last week. Take the home underdog UNLV Rebels.

Free Pick: UNLV +8½

**SBRforum Staff** · 09-20-07, 12:09 PM

UNLV Rebels +8½ vs. Utah Utes

Game Time: 09/22/2007 10:00 PM -
By: Ross Benjamin | rbenjaminsports.com

Utah's big upset over a mistake-prone UCLA squad last week is setting this spread too high. Back the UNLV Rebels as the home dogs this Saturday when they entertain the Utes.

Utah comes off a stunning 44-6 home win over UCLA. The final score is a bit deceiving considering the fact that Utah was the beneficiary of five UCLA turnovers and the total yardage in the game was virtually even. In spite of the 44 points last week this is not a very good offensive team.

UNLV had been very competitive early on until being whacked at home by a very good Hawaii team. I look for the Rebels to bounce back with a strong effort and the Utes to suffer a bit of a letdown after their upset win a week ago over a nationally ranked team. Laying more than a touchdown on the road is just a reaction by the books to adhere to public perception based on the results of both squads from last week. Take the home underdog UNLV Rebels.

Free Pick: UNLV +8½

**SBRforum Staff** · 09-20-07, 12:10 PM

West Virginia (-24) vs. East Carolina

Game Time: 09/22/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Jimmy Boyd | procappers.com

This will be an easy tune-up for West Virginia before going on the road in Big East action at South Florida next week. Back the Mountaineers -24 Saturday at home vs. East Carolina.

West Virginia gets to play at home this week where they are at their best, and we can expect an all-out slaughter of the East Carolina Pirates.

The Mountaineers are 22-6 against the spread when they rush for six or more yards per attempt since 1992, 10-1 ATS when they outgain their opponents by two or more yards/play over the last three seasons, and 40-9 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992. Those three stats are as good as done against East Carolina. Lay the number.

Free Pick: West Virginia -24

**onlooker** · 09-20-07, 02:17 PM

Let's get them Ben Burns with UCLA. I am on them at -6.

I don't know about that UNLV pick Ross.

**SBRforum Staff** · 09-21-07, 10:22 AM

Connecticut +9½ at Pittsburgh

Game Time: 09/22/2007 07:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

This is a lot of points to be giving a 3-0 team that could run the ball like Connecticut. The Huskies got caught looking ahead vs. Temple last week, but look for a big effort here.

This line between the Pittsburgh Panthers and Connecticut Huskies seems inflated to us, due to the combination of the facts that Connecticut almost lost to Temple last week while Pittsburgh almost upset Michigan State on the road.

The way we see things though, Connecticut got caught looking ahead to this game, knowing that they could sleepwalk their way to a win over the Owls. On the flip side, we feel that the Big Ten is grossly overrated, so we do not put much stock in Pittsburgh’s effort last week.

The bottom line is that Connecticut is 3-0, and we feel they will be able to control the clock with their running game here. Remember that the Huskies were in the top 20 in the country in rushing last season at 182.9 rushing yards per game, and based on the breakout game by sophomore Andre Dixon last week (129 yards on 21 carries), we look for them to have success on the ground here vs. an overrated Pittsburgh defense.

Yes, the Panthers are currently ninth in the nation in scoring defense (10 points per game) and 11th in total defense (237 yards per game), but keep in mind that before their encounter with Michigan State, their firs two games were vs. Grambling and Eastern Michigan! This assignment is significantly tougher.

When these teams hooked up in Connecticut last season, the Huskies came away with a wild 46-45 overtime victory. While we do not anticipate another shootout here, we do expect another tight contest that will not be decided until the closing minutes.

Free Pick: Connecticut +9½

**SBRforum Staff** · 09-21-07, 10:23 AM

Fighting Irish (+11) vs. Spartans

Game Time: 09/22/2007 03:30 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

No team has ever won six in at row on the hallowed gridiron at South Bend, and Touchdown Jesus won't let that happen now. Take the points and Notre Dame vs. Michigan St.

After watching Michigan St. struggle with Pittsburgh last weekend, there is no way the Spartans should be favored by double digits on the road. Granted, they have won five straight games in this series at Notre Dame, but those were games they should not have won so the pressure was not there. The Spartans are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite of 10½ or greater and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win.

There is no doubt that Notre Dame is not a good team this season, but this game is their first winnable game of the year. The Irish are catching an incredible number at home and one that is rarely this high. Since 1980, Notre Dame has gotten double digits as home only four times, going 3-1 against the number. The four teams involved were Nebraska, Florida St., Michigan and USC. The Spartans hardly fall into that category. The underdog has covered seven of the last 10 meetings in this series.

Pittsburgh was without its starting quarterback last week so it struggled to move the ball, though the Panthers still had the ball with one last shot to win the game. On the other side, the Michigan St. offense was not very productive as the Spartans had five possessions that ended in Pittsburgh territory but resulted in no points. All three of the Spartans scores came by way of Panthers turnovers. The previous week, Michigan St. struggled against Bowling Green as it outgained the Falcons by just 50 total yards.

It their first three games, Notre Dame has been blown off the line on defense while the offensive line has struggled with opening holes and pass protection. The Irish catch a break here however as the Spartans offensive line is banged up, thin on depth and struggling more as the opposition gets progressively tougher. The Panthers had six sacks last weekend and even Notre Dame, despite its well-chronicled struggles, has some athletes up front that can get to Brian Hoyer.

This series has heated up to become a pretty big rivalry and Notre Dame will be more than ready for this one. Head coach Charlie Weis is said to have promised boosters the Fighting Irish would never again lose to Michigan State while he was head coach. That is a bold promise. Each game since 2000 has been decided by a touchdown or less so the Irish have a very good chance of winning this one and snapping the Spartans four-game winning streak in South Bend. No team has ever won six in a row at Notre Dame. Play Notre Dame Fighting Irish for one unit.

Free Pick: Notre Dame +11 (-103)

**SBRforum Staff** · 09-21-07, 10:24 AM

Back BYU Cougars (-11) versus Air Force Falcons

Game Time: 09/22/2007 03:00 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

BYU is down after a pair of losses on the road, but look for the Cougars to get back in the win column this Saturday afternoon at home against the Air Force Falcons.

BYU enters into this game against Air Force off back-to-back road losses to UCLA and Tulsa. The Falcons on the other hand are a perfect 3-0 on the season after upsetting TCU 20-17 last Thursday night.

Despite of their great start, I'm personally not sold on what I believe to be a very suspect Air Force secondary and defense that has yet to be tested with any real fire power. With that said, I look for a very upset Cougars squad to come out on their home field with all guns blazing against a team they have dominated in the past winning 21 of the 27 meetings, including three straight by an average of 19 PPG.

Final Notes & Key Trends: BYU is 5-0-1 ATS their last six at home as a 10½ or more home favorite. Play on BYU a viable wagering option.

Free Pick: BYU -11 (-110)

**SBRforum Staff** · 09-21-07, 10:25 AM

Bet Army +27½ at Boston College

Game Time: 09/22/2007 01:00 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

Boston College, off to a 3-0 start in the ACC, gets to relax with non-conference foes the next few weeks. The Eagles will win this one, no doubt, but Army covers the 4-TD spread.

The Boston College Eagles made us very happy last week as they cashed our first Five Star Best Bet of the season, and they made us a nice chunk of change on the moneyline as well. This club sits a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in ACC play, and now gets the next three weeks to tinker with its depth and give some of the young guys some playing time.

Army put forth a decent effort last week, and was able to come within the 20-point spread at Wake Forest. With the new coaching staff in place, it’s going to take this team awhile before its fully comfortable with all the new schemes on both sides of the ball. That being said, they experienced success in the passing game last week, and even improved upon their rushing numbers.

With BC taking it easy, especially in this game, I foresee the Cadets continuing their forward progression. The Eagles have absolutely no desire to rub Army’s face in a brutal defeat, and head coach Jeff Jagodzinski won’t allow it to happen. I’m more than happy with almost four touchdowns in my back pocket, and you should be too.

Boston College wins straight up to improve its mark to 24-3 vs. Army since 1970, but the Cadets cover and look forward to next week's winnable game at home vs. Temple.

Free Pick: Army +27½ (-110)

**SBRforum Staff** · 09-21-07, 10:28 AM

Arkansas (-6½) versus Kentucky

Game Time: 09/22/2007 06:00 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

Kentucky's coming off an emotional win over Louisville and Arkansas' off a tough loss to 'Bama. Look for the Hogs to rebound at home with a win and a cover against the Wildcats.

The Kentucky Wildcats are off their biggest win of the Rich Brooks era, and now have to pack their bags and head to Fayetteville to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks. A huge letdown is to be expected here as Kentucky probably still hasn’t stopped partying since they knocked off Louisville for the first time since ’02. That victory marked the program's first triumph over a top-10 team in 30 years, and they entered the AP Top 25 because of it.

While KY-Jelly is flying high, the Razorbacks suffered a bitter defeat that many don’t believe they can bounce back from. Arkansas found itself down 21-0 against Alabama last week, fought all the way back to grab a 28-21 lead, but then eventually fell by a 41-38 final count when the Crimson Tide scored a TD in the closing seconds. It was a tough loss to swallow for head coach Houston Nutt and his Hogs, but I expect them to bounce back nicely in this spot.

Stopping the run has proven to be a bit problematic for the Wildcats, as the club is permitting foes to gain 4.8 YPC and 185.0 YPG on the ground. That spells ultimate doom here this evening as the Hogs will bombard them with a ton of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. I know D-Mac’s a bit hobbled, but even at 80% he should still be able to do plenty of damage.

I love what this Kentucky club has to offer, but I just don’t see them being able to keep it together in this hostile environment. Playing in front of their home fans really helped them last week, but they won’t be there this time around when the game seems to be getting away from them. Lay the tuddy as the Hogs rush their way to the straight up win and cover.

Free Pick: Arkansas -6½ (-110)

**SBRforum Staff** · 09-21-07, 11:15 AM

Longhorns & Nittany Lions in Week 4

Game Time: 09/22/2007 10:15 PM
By: Dividend Doug | dividenddoug.com

With his picks coming in at a torrid clip the last two weeks, Michigan Wolverines fans will be unhappy to read that Dividend Doug is on Joe Pa's and Penn State's side this Saturday.

I keep hearing from several of my disciples how much they appreciate my free service, that a sports handicapper with last week’s winning percentage of 71% against the spread, offering his wisdom for free, is unheard of.

Well all I can say is, "Thank you for your kind words."

Now let’s get down to the business of winning you even more money for you, shall we?

Washington (+7) at U.C.L.A.
Saturday, Sep 22, 10:15 p.m. (ET)
Despite the fact the Bruins received the news that starting QB Ben Olsen was still dizzy from his visit to Big Love and that backup Patrick Cowan gives the gutty little ones a better chance at a W, I’m going with the coach that Notre Dame fired. These are two programs going in separate directions.

#24 Nebraska (-22) vs. Ball State
Saturday, Sep 22, 12:30 p.m. (ET)
After watching the Nebraska-USC tapes, the Ball State coaches have to be asking themselves what they did to deserve the wrath and heat that they will be subjected to this week.

#10 Penn State (-3) at Michigan
Saturday, Sep 22, 3:30 p.m. (ET) ABC
Joe Paterno’s gang is one of the top teams in the NCAA this year and not even a visit to the toughest venue to win at on the road can prevent an eventual win for the Nittany Lions.

#7 Texas (-38½) vs. Rice
Saturday, Sep 22, 7:00 p.m. (ET)
You might find that 50 points might not be enough of a spread as Texas tries to prove to America that they belong with the elite

**laxdjock** · 09-22-07, 11:13 AM

Let's go WVU!

**crackerjack** · 09-25-07, 02:06 PM

Overall, these picks did fairly well...I am not sure I'd follow them (although I agreed with UNLV), I'd think twice before betting against them in the future...