Week 3 Plays

**onlooker** · 09-15-07, 12:38 PM

I am with you on Vanderbilt, but I got them -5 yesterday morning.

Good luck with your plays.

**bigboydan** · 09-15-07, 12:47 PM

I went against you on your Bama play.

BOL on your entire card Ebone

**pokernut9999** · 09-15-07, 12:50 PM

Any word on Vandy QB for tonight ?

**onlooker** · 09-15-07, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by pokernut9999

Any word on Vandy QB for tonight ?

It says PROBABLE now. But with that line jumping up from -5 to -7 since yesterday, I would think he is playing.

But I still think they can cover with the back up in there. He did pretty good last week when he came in.

**pokernut9999** · 09-15-07, 01:22 PM

thanks onlooker

**EBone** · 09-16-07, 08:08 AM

(4-3) +0.70 units.......

Couldn't make myself take Kansas. A lot of shoulda, woulda, coulda's yesterday. I'll give it go again next week.

E

**BuddyBear** · 09-16-07, 10:22 PM

glad to see you were on the + side of things EBONE. Looking forward to hearing what you got for us next week....

**EBone** · 09-16-07, 10:29 PM

Thanks BB.

Early on, I see 7 dogs that really intrigue me. I have not layed one dollar yet. Just these 7 are tempting to me:

Tex A&M over Miami-FLA (Miami may be worst than we all think)
Akron over Kent (road favs are murder in the MAC)
Duke over Navy (fading Navy until mid schedule)
Air Force over BYU (I'd be willing to bet a better number will be available by the end of the week)
Kentucky over Arkansas (really like this one)
Ark State over Tennessee (a "who cares" game for UT; this means the world to ASU)
Washington over UCLA (another game where we might see the line climb back up above a TD).

These are early thoughts. I have more work to do.

E

**BuddyBear** · 09-16-07, 11:19 PM

My thoughts on the games.

I like TXAM myself and we'll see where the line goes. I certainly am not going to play +2.5 and am hoping it gets back +3. Tough to get a read on TXAM just yet.

Navy is not very good this year and Navy teams of years past would have easily taken care of Duke but Duke has put together now 2 very solid games back to back and that experience of returning 20 starters is finally showing and Navy's defensive inexperience is clearly showing (only 3 returning starters). One note though Ebone, even though Duke beat NW, NW has 197 more total yards than did Duke so the outcome in that respect is a bit misleading. I lean slightly toward Duke but you know as well as I do, Duke has the potential to get blown out easily anytime they play (i.e. see Connecticut game).

Sorry to say, I already played BYU -9 (along with ND +14). This is more a technical play than anything else. Teams that win SU back-to-back as underdogs are generally very good fades the following weeks. BYU played very well in their 2 losses outgaining both opponents in UCLA and a very under the rader Tulsa team (you'll see on Friday

). This rivalry for some time now has been very uncompetitive. Whoever wins usually wins rather easily. In fact, the past 7 years it has not even been in single digits. I'd lay BYU up to -14 in this spot. AF's win against TCU was a fluke and a major collapse by TCU...trust me i was on it and watched the entire thing. BYU knows that an AF win all but assures them the conference title and the defending MWC champs won't let that happen. I think this is a very good spot for BYU.

I have a slight lean toward Arkansas. This is a major letdown spot for Kentucky after a very emotionally charged win against Louisville. Arkansas suffered a bitter defeat but were valient in their comeback efforts in a very difficult situation (i.e. revenge game, down 21-0, etc...). Arkansas is most likely going to win the rushing battle in this game and that should help to control the clock and keep the below average Kentucky defense on the field. I continue to be very impressed with Andre Woodson Woodson and Rafeal Little as both are solid players. Believe it or not, while this game is technically more meaningful for Kentucky, last week's game (i.e. a non-conference game) was treated as the Super Bowl for them. I'll play on the letdown angle here with Arkansas. Kentucky has been a very poor road team over the years 7-28record SU and 14-16 ATS. I think people may be reading too much into the win against UL...i think we'll see that UL is more/less overrrated.

I don't know what to make of the UCLA/Wash line. Wash was generally competitive with OSU but let it get away late after a series of mistakes. UCLA was just flat out embarrasssed by a Utah team that just wasn't very good. They just weren't prepared for that game and that is all on the coaching. I see them more focused here coming back home and angry. At +10 I would have considered Wash but can only consider UCLA at less than -7. I think UCLA is a far better team than they showed Saturday and this is a team a lot of the wiseguys will be betting this year. Wash is still young and have a relatively inexperienced, but talented, QB in Locker. If UCLA goes down to -4 I'll play it.

Agree on Ark St. Tenn has not hit rock bottom yet but getting close to it. Ark St is a pretty decent Sun Belt team that has kept some of these games close the past couple of years (i.e. Texas, Auburn, Oklahoma St). It will be interesting to see how Tenn responds as they played well against a good USM team after the loss to CAL. It would be easy to get up for the Razorbacks, but the Indians???? I'd like to see this line get to +21. No matter how good the Sun Belt team is, there is just a major talent differential between the two schools (i.e. see Troy/Florida, ULM/Clemson, ULM/TXAM, NT/Oklahoma). Unless something shocking happens (i.e. Louisville defensive collapse like against MTSU) your best bet here for cashing this ticket is through the backdoor.

Good luck. Keep in touch about the games this week....