CFB – Week 4 Plays

[LT Profits]

SATURDAY, 9/24

Wisconsin +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
South Florida +5.5 -105 (Heritage)


YTD: 11-19, -9.02

[SteezW]

Mind if I ask why you like Wisconsin here?

As a Badger fan, I'm really nervous about this game. Corey Clement nursing an ankle injury and we have a bit of a QB controversy. Somehow, the defense gave up more points and yards to Georgia State at home last week than to LSU in the opener.

[LT Profits]

Mind if I ask why you like Wisconsin here?

As a Badger fan, I'm really nervous about this game. Corey Clement nursing an ankle injury and we have a bit of a QB controversy. Somehow, the defense gave up more points and yards to Georgia State at home last week than to LSU in the opener.

I wish I could give you a long detailed answer, but the truth is it is because my model spit out only MSU -3.25.

I would not worry too much about the Georgia State game, Badgers probably just took them lightly with one eye on this B1G opener.

[SteezW]

Ah ok cool. It looks like redshirt freshman QB Alex Hornibrook is starting for the Badgers now. I like the move, should be a great game. A little upset about the 11am Central start...

Meanwhile they have Penn State/Michigan at 2:30 on national TV where Michigan will roll

[chico2663]

I liked miss st and north carolina. what did your module say?If you don't mind.

[reigle9]

Ah ok cool. It looks like redshirt freshman QB Alex Hornibrook is starting for the Badgers now. I like the move, should be a great game. A little upset about the 11am Central start...

Meanwhile they have Penn State/Michigan at 2:30 on national TV where Michigan will roll

You really don't think PSU-UM would crush that game in ratings? I mean, this isn't rocket science.

[LT Profits]

I liked miss st and north carolina. what did your module say?If you don't mind.

Mississippi State -22.73
North Carolina -5.53

I actually lean Pitt

[chico2663]

Mississippi State -22.73
North Carolina -5.53

I actually lean Pitt

Pitt has always been underachievers from wandstadt on down.I'mprobably wrong but i look for them to slap pitts silly. thanks

[LT Profits]

1 CFB Addition Saturday

SATURDAY, 9/24

Wisconsin +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
Wisconsin / Michigan State UNDER 42 -110 (DSI)
South Florida +5.5 -105 (Heritage)

[Cuse0323]

Any lean on USC at Utah?

[LT Profits]

Any lean on USC at Utah?

WOULD have liked USC but new QB makes me want +3.5 to take USC, which I won't get. Model has Utah -1.98

[Cuse0323]

WOULD have liked USC but new QB makes me want +3.5 to take USC, which I won't get. Model has Utah -1.98

Thanks. The new young QB on the road is scary. This is the ultimate layoff game, but degenerate special.

[Electrons]

I wish I could give you a long detailed answer, but the truth is it is because my model spit out only MSU -3.25.

I would not worry too much about the Georgia State game, Badgers probably just took them lightly with one eye on this B1G opener.

LT--a question.

I use a model as well. Did you account for the QB change with Wisconsin? I mean, your system has the outcome MSU -3.25---and I'd expect your MOE to be 3-5 points.....seems like a lot of risk for such a small difference in your number and Vegas number.

[LT Profits]

LT--a question.

I use a model as well. Did you account for the QB change with Wisconsin? I mean, your system has the outcome MSU -3.25---and I'd expect your MOE to be 3-5 points.....seems like a lot of risk for such a small difference in your number and Vegas number.

Depends on the spread. I have no problem taking 2.5 point differential (higher) when model is in low 3s. If model had, say, 7, then 2.5 not as significant. Also, I use more judgement than pure modelers, while I never go against the model, the difference I am will to accept may vary from game to game depending on other factors.

[champ21]

Thanks for input L T

[LT Profits]

3 CFB Additions

SATURDAY, 9/24

Wisconsin +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
Wisconsin / Michigan State UNDER 42 -110 (DSI)
South Florida +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
Pittsburgh +7 -105 (Heritage)
Tulsa / Fresno State OVER 66 -105 (Heritage)
Stanford -2.5 -105 (5 Dimes)

[LT Profits]

Another CFB Addition

SATURDAY, 9/24

Wisconsin +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
Wisconsin / Michigan State UNDER 42 -110 (DSI)
South Florida +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
Pittsburgh +7 -105 (Heritage)
Tulsa / Fresno State OVER 66 -105 (Heritage)
Ball State / Florida Atlantic UNDER 55 -105 (Heritage)
Stanford -2.5 -105 (5 Dimes)

[LT Profits]

Yet Another CFB Addition

SATURDAY, 9/24

Wisconsin +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
Wisconsin / Michigan State UNDER 42 -110 (DSI)
South Florida +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
Pittsburgh +7 -105 (Heritage)
Tulsa / Fresno State OVER 66 -105 (Heritage)
Colorado +10 +100 (Heritage)
Ball State / Florida Atlantic UNDER 55 -105 (Heritage)
Stanford -2.5 -105 (5 Dimes)

[Joeitaly]

How did you not have FLA ML on your picks this week?

[clockwise]

SATURDAY, 9/24

Wisconsin +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
Wisconsin / Michigan State UNDER 42 -110 (DSI)
South Florida +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
Pittsburgh +7 -105 (Heritage)
Tulsa / Fresno State OVER 66 -105 (Heritage)
Colorado +10 +100 (Heritage)
Ball State / Florida Atlantic UNDER 55 -105 (Heritage)
Stanford -2.5 -105 (5 Dimes)

ducks line now at -14 hmmmm

[LT Profits]

ducks line now at -14 hmmmm

Colorado RB was announced Out 15 minutes before kick-off after it was announced he was upgraded to probable earlier in th day.

[LT Profits]

Comeback in progress? 6-2

[seaborneq]

Comeback in progress? 6-2

I thought you had a winning record going into the week. I must have been looking at your NFL thread.