ACES Monday Picks 11-4 YTD $$$

**ntgarrett** · 09-02-07, 10:13 PM

Aces.....I like Texas Tech as well and I especially like the over....for what it is worth, here's what Dr. Bob has to say about the game:

The offensive machine that is Texas Tech will continue to roll up yards and points despite the loss of the top two receivers and 4 starting linemen from last year’s squad. The Red Raiders return a starting quarterback for the first time since 2002 and Graham Harrell is more talented than the past quarterbacks that have run coach Mike Leach’s system. Harrell averaged 7.0 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback and his improvement will be negated somewhat by an inexperienced offensive line that is likely to allow more sacks than last year’s ultra-experienced front wall that allowed only 2.9% sacks. The rushing numbers - when the do decide to run the ball – probably won’t be quite as good either, but Tech always has a high average because teams just aren’t looking for the run. Overall, the Red Raiders were 1.3 yards per play better than average last season and they should be just as good this year despite the line. The Texas Tech defense returns just 5 starters and is particularly inexperienced up front, so expect that unit to be more forgiving this season after rating at 0.5 yppl better than average last season (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team). Texas Tech probably won’t be quite as good as they were last season, but they’ll still be a good team that could creep into the top 25.
SMU has risen from the ashes in recent seasons, going from 0-12 in 2003, to 3-8, to 5-6, and to 6-6 last year. Mustangs’ fans will be happy to know that the evolution is continuing at least one more season. Quarterback Justin Willis came in as a freshman last season and played like a veteran in completing 67.4% of his passes for 26 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions and he’ll be even better in his sophomore season, especially given that he’ll likely have more time to throw behind a line with 4 returning starters. Willis didn’t take many chances, as he mostly threw short range passes, and his passing numbers were actually below average for the season because of all the sacks he took (28 sacks on 298 pass plays). Willis averaged 6.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback, but I expect Willis to be average this season in compensated yards per pass play given that he’s likely to improve and take less sacks. The rushing attack should also be better with a better line and with DeMyron Martin back healthy after struggling last year with injuries. Martin ran for 854 yards at 4.6 ypr as a freshman in 2005, but managed just 369 yards at 4.0 ypr last year. James Mapps looked good as his backup (4.7 ypr) and Cedrick Dorsey is not a bad option either if Martin can’t carry the load. SMU was 0.3 yards per rushing play worse than average last season, but that facet of the attack should also be average this year. SMU was average defensively last season, but they will probably slip a bit without star MLB Reggie Carrington, who quit the team during the summer. The defensive front is the weakness and the only returning starter on the line, Cory Muse (7 sacks last year), is doubtful for this game. The secondary looks better, but there won’t be much pass rush as long as Muse is out. One area where SMU is not average is in special teams, as kicker/punter Thomas Morstead is a star punter and not a bad place kicker. SMU should challenge in a weak Conference USA this season.

My ratings favor Texas Tech by only 8 ½ points in this game, which gives us no value playing either side.

Any thoughts on what he has to say? I think the over is a good play in this game....Texas Tech will air it out for a lot of points but did they lose to many starters from last year to shut down SMU from scoring a lot as well? Aprreciate your thoughts and GL on your picks

**Aces** · 09-02-07, 10:29 PM

Opening Game LY was 35-3.

Yes they lost some starters but the same QB who beat Texas AM barely lost to Texas and beat Oklahoma State is back.

I think this is a key quote.

Red Raiders were 1.3 yards per play better than average last season and they should be just as good this year despite the line

Last year the were very good. I'll roll with the Red Raiders.
Looks like the line is going up so you might want to jump on it tonight.

**bigboydan** · 09-02-07, 10:39 PM

I'm liking your Tech play Aces.

BOL to you

**Aces** · 09-02-07, 10:42 PM

Thanks BBD. Monday Money !!!

**moneyplays** · 09-02-07, 10:45 PM

Bodog is at 9.5... Should I buy .5 point? Make it 9 or 10?

**rjt721** · 09-02-07, 10:46 PM

I'm going to pass, but I do agree with your Tech play.

Good luck with Bama as well, Aces.

BTW, where's Razz been the last couple days?

**rjt721** · 09-02-07, 10:47 PM

Originally posted by moneyplays

Bodog is at 9.5... Should I buy .5 point? Make it 9 or 10?

No. You should find a new book.

Seriously, don't play at Bodog.

**Aces** · 09-02-07, 11:08 PM

My brother had a system that worked well last year. We called it the BoDog system it went like this........

Whenever BoDog has a crazy line that entices the public to bet one way always bet the opposite. In this case BoDog wants you to bet SMU they have moved the line to reflect it so the BoDog play would be Texas Tech. Watch the lines. A point and a half difference is fairly high. That line in itself would be enough to make my mind up.

**GUNZ-05** · 09-03-07, 01:32 AM

Texas Tech -10

Florida St. -3

**ritehook** · 09-03-07, 01:35 AM

I'll dissent. I'm on SMU at +9.5

**HAPPY BOY** · 09-03-07, 07:56 AM

like TCu -8.5 = 2 units
FSU -3 = 2units

parlay tcu/fsu = 1 unit

GL to all

**ntgarrett** · 09-03-07, 10:03 AM

Aces....thanks for your thoughts....guess I needed a little push to go the same way. GL with them

**austintx05** · 09-03-07, 12:05 PM

gl Aces

**Aces** · 09-03-07, 12:15 PM

Added

Texas Tech 1st Qtr - 1/2
Over 13 1st Quarter

**Aces** · 09-03-07, 12:17 PM

4 Plays So Far

Texas Tech 1st Half -5 Win
Texas Tech Game -8
Texas Tech 1st Qtr - 1/2 Win
Over 13 1st Quarter Lost

**louisvillekid** · 09-03-07, 12:52 PM

i agree with Tech is goin roll. as will FSU.
Bama also should trounce Vandy next week, i seen the lines between 4- 4.5 today.

**WestsidePete** · 09-03-07, 12:55 PM

I also took T Tech bought 3 pts to -6
1st half -4.5
over 56.5 bought 3 pts

teaser T Tech -2 and over 53

**Aces** · 09-03-07, 01:46 PM

Line is moving in my favor on all plays.

TT 1st Qtr - 1/2 is now at -135 (I got it at -110) Move 25
Over 13 1st qtr is now -130 (I got it at -110) Move 20
TT 3rd qtr -3 is now at -110 (I got it at +105) move 15

Hope the side is right the odds are definately right.

**Aces** · 09-03-07, 04:44 PM

Adding

TT Pick 3rd Quarter
Over 13 3rd Quarter

This should win or Push

**Peyton2MarvinN06** · 09-03-07, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by Aces

Adding

TT Pick 3rd Quarter
Over 13 3rd Quarter

This should win or Push

Great call on this one Aces! Tech looks solid today!
I had the -8 for the game and somehow got -4.5 for 1st half! Easy winner!

Just took
TT -.5(+125) for the 3rd quarter
TT -1(-110) for the 2nd half

Let's tear this game a new one!

**moneyplays** · 09-03-07, 04:56 PM

Aces, any decision on the fsu/clemson game?

**Aces** · 09-03-07, 04:56 PM

Plays For Today

Texas Tech 1st Half -5 Win
Texas Tech 1st Qtr - 1/2 Win
Over 13 1st Quarter Lost
Texas Tech Game -8
TT Pick 3rd Quarter
Over 13 3rd Quarter

**Aces** · 09-03-07, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by moneyplays

Aces, any decision on the fsu/clemson game?

I'm leaning towards FSU but I will tread very light. Anyone who claims to have this game figured out is nuts. Its a coin flip at best.

**Aces** · 09-03-07, 05:02 PM

Thanks Peyton TT has a habit of starting games slow and turning up the heat in the 3rd qtr. I hope thats the case here.
If the 1st and 2nd qtrs were slow they will smoke SMU in the 2nd half. SMU gets the ball first and they have been moving it. There should be a Turn Over soon. I hope its on the 1st drive.

**pokernut9999** · 09-03-07, 05:24 PM

I think your Bama team will be a sweet pick vs Vandy !!!

**Aces** · 09-03-07, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by pokernut9999

I think your Bama team will be a sweet pick vs Vandy !!!

I hope so I've loaded the wagon on it already.

**Aces** · 09-03-07, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by Aces

Adding

TT Pick 3rd Quarter
Over 13 3rd Quarter

This should win or Push

Win Win

**Aces** · 09-03-07, 05:53 PM

Plays For Today

Texas Tech 1st Half -5 Win
Texas Tech 1st Qtr - 1/2 Win
Over 13 1st Quarter Lost
TT Pick 3rd Quarter Win
Over 13 3rd Quarter Win
Texas Tech Game Win

**pokernut9999** · 09-03-07, 06:08 PM

go ahead and add W for the game !!!!

**Aces** · 09-03-07, 06:10 PM

LOL Not Yet

**Aces** · 09-03-07, 06:11 PM

I took 4th qrt Tex tech -1/2 as well but didn't like it well enough to post it.

**Peyton2MarvinN06** · 09-03-07, 06:25 PM

Wow, TOTAL DOMINATION here today! Men against boys it was in this game... Harrell has not lost anything from last year and his new receiving corps filled in pretty solidly today... The only thing I would be worried about if I was Tech is their Offensive Line... Harrell had a lot of pressure on him and when they play Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma, and K-State for that matter they may have trouble...

GREAT CALL HERE TODAY ACES! Glad I was able to follow along! I hope the Noles get it done tonight... I am a huge FSU fan and they are WAY OVERDUE to just kill Clemson! Look for #6 Antone Smith to have a big game!

**Marigold HD** · 09-03-07, 06:25 PM

Great picks Aces....Good start to the week.....

**Aces** · 09-03-07, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by Aces

LOL Not Yet

Now I'll Post It $$$$$$$$$$$ 16-5 YTD