Will the Michigan Loss Kick Them from Top 25 - and What About Carr?

**jjgold** · 09-01-07, 05:17 PM

He is gone

**onlooker** · 09-01-07, 05:19 PM

If not out of the top 25, at least out of the top 20. Even though that was a good 1AA team, it is still a 1AA team, and Michigan was suppost to challenge for the National Championship.

Carr should be gone.

**LargeMouthBass** · 09-01-07, 06:11 PM

I still think they will be top 25... But their season is basically over.

**gridironguy** · 09-01-07, 06:28 PM

Lloyd Carr has been on the hotseat for a few yrs because he has lost 5 of the last 6 to Ohio State. There was talk PRIOR to the season beginning that due to health reasons, Carr would step down after this season.

Regarding the Top 25, I personally guarantee you that they will not drop out of it. You don't go from #5 to out of the Top 25 in one week. This is not how the polls work. They lost to a powerhouse 1-AA program, and will likely go on a run now for several games and be right back in the thick of things in the BIG-10

**gridironguy** · 09-01-07, 06:29 PM

They will drop to about 12th or so in the polls. The voters know that Michigan is still a good team with future NFLers in the backfield

**rjt721** · 09-01-07, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by gridironguy

They will drop to about 12th or so in the polls. The voters know that Michigan is still a good team with future NFLers in the backfield

12? Want to give me some odds on that?

UM's almost certainly falling out of the top 20, if not out of the top 25 altogether.

The sad thing is, with UM's ridiculous and stubborn insistence on the coach being a "Michigan man," a potential replacement wouldn't be much of an improvement over Carr. It's because of this, combined with UM's reluctance to open up the wallet, that they will never have a Saban or Spurrier quality coach running the program.

Assuming Carr is let go, the favorite to succeed him would likely be D-coordinator Ron English, which, given his experience as a head coach (none) and they way the defense has performed of late, is completely outrageous.

**TheOffshoreGambler** · 09-01-07, 06:52 PM

What if they run the table in the big ten? Win the Rose Bowl. What would be your opinion of them then? Could happen. I doubt it but its possible.

**gridironguy** · 09-01-07, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by rjt721

12? Want to give me some odds on that?

UM's almost certainly falling out of the top 20, if not out of the top 25 altogether.

I've been following college football week in and week out for 23 straight yrs. Have never missed a saturday, not for a funeral and not for a wedding.

You don't wana bet with me. They will drop no lower than #12.
Appalachian State might be D-1AA, but they are 2 time defending champs. The AP voters have heard this all day.

Michigan no lower than 12th, trust me.

**ritehook** · 09-01-07, 07:09 PM

Originally posted by gridironguy

I've been following college football week in and week out for 23 straight yrs. Have never missed a saturday, not for a funeral and not for a wedding.

You don't wana bet with me. They will drop no lower than #12.
Appalachian State might be D-1AA, but they are 2 time defending champs. The AP voters have heard this all day.

Michigan no lower than 12th, trust me.

I'd guessed somewhere between 16 and 19. If you're right I'll bump this up Sun nite to get you your kudos. (And come to thnk of it I'll bump it up regardless.)

**rjt721** · 09-01-07, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by gridironguy

I've been following college football week in and week out for 23 straight yrs. Have never missed a saturday, not for a funeral and not for a wedding.

You don't wana bet with me. They will drop no lower than #12.
Appalachian State might be D-1AA, but they are 2 time defending champs. The AP voters have heard this all day.

Michigan no lower than 12th, trust me.

I'm not at all questioning your knowledge of the game, but I do think you're wrong here.

I'm well aware that App. St. is the two-time reigning D-1AA champ, but perception is reality, and the reality is that a D-1AA team, regardless of how good they may be, just beat a ranked team for the first time ever. And not just any ranked team, but playing on the road against the winningest program in CFB history. To expect UM to only drop from 5 to 12, when a loss of this magnitude is unprecedented, is ridiculous, at least in my opinion. Had UM won today and lost next week to Oregon, then a drop from 5th to 12th would have been more plausible, but not when they lose to a D-1AA school.

UM won't be in the top 20 when next week's polls are released, nor should they be.

**gridironguy** · 09-01-07, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by ritehook

I'd guessed somewhere between 16 and 19. If you're right I'll bump this up Sun nite to get you your kudos. (And come to thnk of it I'll bump it up regardless.)

16 to 19 sounds pretty fair. You could be right.

All I know is that RJT's assertion that they will "certainly" fall out of the Top 20 or the Top 25 entirely, is borderline ridiculous.

The pollsters rank the teams according to how good they are, and any educated fan knows that Michigan is much better than they showed today. They simply overlooked a very very good D-1AA team and got ambushed at home.

It can happen, and it obviously did..

**gridironguy** · 09-01-07, 07:39 PM

RJT, do you understand that the voters in the polls vote typically on how good a team is (in their mind) as opposed to how bad a loss is?

This is when one team beats another heads up, and both teams have equal losses, the winning team (in the heads up matchup) has often been ranked lower!

Michigan, with Henne, Hart, and that deep WR corps, is definitely a Top 20 program. The voters understand that they got ambushed by a powerhouse D-1AA team. Sooner or later it was gonna happen, and it just did.

People in the know (like Herbstreit) have said it many, many times. Voters vote on how good they believe the team is, and where they believe the team will end up at season's end.

**rjt721** · 09-01-07, 07:40 PM

Originally posted by gridironguy

16 to 19 sounds pretty fair. You could be right.

All I know is that RJT's assertion that they will "certainly" fall out of the Top 20 or the Top 25 entirely, is borderline ridiculous.

The pollsters rank the teams according to how good they are, and any educated fan knows that Michigan is much better than they showed today. They simply overlooked a very very good D-1AA team and got ambushed at home.

It can happen, and it obviously did..

I'm not seeing the ridiculousness in that statement. And believe me, being a UM fan, I'm well aware that they're better than they showed today, but that doesn't mean they're not in for a significant drop in next week's polls.

A historic upset like this is cause for a comparably significant drop in the polls.

**rjt721** · 09-01-07, 07:48 PM

Originally posted by gridironguy

RJT, do you understand that the voters in the polls vote typically on how good a team is (in their mind) as opposed to how bad a loss is?

This assumes that all voters' vote the same, and that's an assumption that I don't agree with.

Of course UM's a top 20 team in terms of talent, but that doesn't mean they won't fall significantly. You're only as good as your last game. I mean, if Cal loses tonight to UT, they will likely fall to the 18-20 range, correct? Does that necessarily mean that a team like Nebraska, which won today and would in this instance move ahead of Cal, is better than the Bears? No. But you are judged based on what you have accomplished to this point, and UM will fall below teams that they're probably better than.

Anyway, I'll guess we'll see when the polls are released.

**gridironguy** · 09-01-07, 08:42 PM

Good discussion, RJT.

Because this is a historic upset, as you are saying, there really is no precedence on what the voters *should* do. Historically speaking, Top 10 teams have not been dropped as much as one would think after upsets. If I am a voter, I would immediately wana know as much as possible about Appalachian State, to see if this was a total fluke, or if App St is for real.

The answer is more the latter than the former. App St is definitely for real. You don't go 26-4 with back to back championships at any level of football without being pretty good.

Should Michigan have lost? No. Was it inevitable that an App St type would one day beat a Michigan-type team? Yes.

I think we should credit App St more then we should insult Michigan for this loss.

Both teams moved the ball at will, which is expected from Michigan with the skill ppl they've got. Michigan's defense obviously disappointed, and we would be remiss not to think that they overlooked App St quite a bit.

**onlooker** · 09-01-07, 08:46 PM

Overlooked, ok. But they were down 28-17 at halftime. I am sure they knew who Appalachian State was by then. They could of come back and won the game.

I think everyone should give Appalachian State kudos, but also think everyone should insult Michigan as well.

It just seems that the Big Ten (Eleven) schools can not handle speed.

**McBa1n** · 09-01-07, 08:59 PM

They had more than a few opportunities to win that game... It was a disgrace.

**increasedodds** · 09-02-07, 09:51 AM

The only thing dumb was app st kicking the fg on 1st down... You idiots, run the clock down to 5 seconds... Or at least 10 seconds on 3rd down.

Michigan has no chance of being in the top 12 next week. Absolutely no chance.

-Sean

**greg66** · 09-02-07, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by increasedodds

The only thing dumb was app st kicking the fg on 1st down... You idiots, run the clock down to 5 seconds... Or at least 10 seconds on 3rd down.

Michigan has no chance of being in the top 12 next week. Absolutely no chance.

-Sean

My wife who normally does not watch football even picked up on that. She was watching the end of the game with me and she was asking why are not running down the clock.

**BatemanPatrickl** · 09-02-07, 10:12 AM

Originally posted by greg66

My wife who normally does not watch football even picked up on that. She was watching the end of the game with me and she was asking why are not running down the clock.

I don't think they had any timeouts left...

**Doc JS** · 09-02-07, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by onlòóker

It just seems that the Big Ten (Eleven) schools can not handle speed.

Ding! We have a winner!!

Completely agree Looker. From the highlights I saw, Michigan was bigger. ASU was faster. Michigan had trouble defending the spread and the team speed of ASU.

**stump** · 09-02-07, 04:37 PM

should be out of the top 25, 0 - 1, loss to a Div 1AA team, how can they be ranked

**ritehook** · 09-03-07, 11:39 AM

Polls apparently not out until Tues, due to holiday

**onlooker** · 09-03-07, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by ritehook

Polls apparently not out until Tues, due to holiday

Also two games tonight, so they can factor those games into the rankings.

**ritehook** · 09-03-07, 11:42 AM

Originally posted by onlòóker

Also two games tonight, so they can factor those games into the rankings.

Right. Don't see too many Mon nite games in college fb

**onlooker** · 09-03-07, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by Doc JS

Ding! We have a winner!!

Completely agree Looker. From the highlights I saw, Michigan was bigger. ASU was faster. Michigan had trouble defending the spread and the team speed of ASU.

Also see: Florida vs Ohio State (BCS Title Bowl) and USC vs Michigan (Rose Bowl) from last season.

I am sure there are more, but everyone should get the point.

**rjt721** · 09-04-07, 01:49 PM

UM drops all the way out of the top 25 in this week's USA Today poll.

AP poll yet to be relseased.

**ritehook** · 09-04-07, 02:02 PM

Originally posted by rjt721

UM drops all the way out of the top 25 in this week's USA Today poll.

AP poll yet to be relseased.

UM ranked 27th in the Coaches/USA Today poll.

You get the roses on this one. Gridironguy wrong on "no worse than 12th." I was wrong on saying 16-19.

That the USA Today poll. Let's see what the AP poll says.

Oddly enough (or maybe not so odd, bettors are counting on big upward bounce) Michigan opened at -6.5 vs a very good Oregon team, and at many books it's already been pumped up to -8.5.

If Michigan runs off, say, 8 straight wins, the coaches are going to look foolish for the drop-off from Top 25

**gridironguy** · 09-04-07, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by rjt721

UM drops all the way out of the top 25 in this week's USA Today poll.

AP poll yet to be relseased.

Great call, RJT. I am still surprised.

**ritehook** · 09-04-07, 03:14 PM

AP poll also has Michigan 27th. (And Oregon, this week's visiting opponent, 30th ---both too low, I think)

RJT and others who said out of top 25 for Wolves get the brass ring

**rjt721** · 09-04-07, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by gridironguy

Great call, RJT. I am still surprised.

Thanks, gridiron, but being a Michigan fan, I take no pleasure in being right about this.