An Early Look. Big 12 South

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  • BigdaddyQH
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 07-13-09
    • 19530

    #1
    An Early Look. Big 12 South
    Just when you think the Big 2 (OU and Texas) are their most vulnerable for upset, most of the rest of the division gets hit hard in certain areas by graduation. Here is an early breakdown.

    Bob Stoops had a year at OKLAHOMA that he would rather forget. Losing QB Badford right off the bat led to 3 of their 5 losses. The silver lining in all of this is that this years starting QB, Landry Jones, got a lot of experience last season. RB Murray is a key return, along with 5 other starters on offense. The defense loses 6 starters. The schedule is challenging from a non-con point of view, but very doable from a conference point of view. WAGERING NOTES: Last years tie ATS vs Texas is the best that OU has done in their previous 5 meetings (0-4-1 ATS). Despite last years 1-2 regular season Non-con ATS, OU is still 11-4 ATS in their past 4 years.

    TEXAS finds themselves in the same boat as OU, losing their starting QB. Unfortunately, new QB Gilbert does not have nearly the experience as OU QB Jones has. His favorite target, WR Shipley also graduates, along with their Center and Left side of the line. On defense, the Horns lose two off the DL and 2 LB's along with the early departure of FS Thomas. Texas has an easier non-con schedule than OU, but must make early trips to Lubbock and Lincoln, with OU sandwiched in between. WAGERING NOTES: Texas is 0-3 ATS vs Nebraska, and 4-0 against Rice. This year, Texas may be a decent proce to win the Big 12 for the first time in years.

    Mike Sherman and TEXAS A&M shocked many people last year by winning 6 games and going to a bowl. The offense, which scored 31 or more points in 9 games, returns their entire backfield and WR Corps, but loses their TE and 3 linemen. The defesne, which was a total siv, giving up 31 or more points in 9 games, loses 5 starters, and gets hit very hard in the secondary. Their non-con schedule may be soft enough to get A&M back into another bowl game. WAGERING NOTES: Obviously the Over was the play last year, when 10 or A&M's 13 games went over 60 points, but this has become a 3 year trend now.

    TEXAS TECH welcomes the defensive minded Tommy Tuberville as their new HC. Defense is something that T-Tech has lacked for quite some time, and Tubes will have a big challenge ahead of him this season, losing 6 starters, and a lot of edpth, especially along the DL. The offense will be loaded again, returning 8 starters, including the entire backfield and inly losing 1 WR. T-Tech should score, but can Tubes do something with their defense? A very soft non-con schedule should guarantee them another bowl bid. WAGERING NOTES: Look for some value in the total by playing the under. The total will be inflated very high, and Tubes is a very defensive minded HC.

    OKLAHOMA STATE was very disappointing last season, and gets deceminated by graduation this year. 8 starters on offense and 9 starters on defense leave, along with a lot of depth. Mike Gundy has a huge rebuilding job staring him in the face, and little experience to start with. Fortunately for Gundy, a very soft non-con schedule to open the season will allow his troops to get some much needed experience before the conference season starts. He is going to need it. WAGERING NOTES: Okie State is 6-15 ATS in their last 3 games of the season in their last 7 years.

    BAYLOR's season was cut short by an injury to starting QB Girffin last season. The health of his knee will tell the tale this season. Baylor loses 5 starters on offense, and a some depth, and 6 starters on defense, plus all 4 of their two deep safties. Still, HC Briles is one of the most respected in the Big 12. The schedule sees Baylor opening up at TCU, but having 3 very winnable non-con games. The health of QB Griffin will determine if Baylor can finally get back to a bowl game or not. WAGERING NOTES: Baylor is 7-3 as a road dog in the past two years.

    Next Up: Pac 10.
  • PAULYPOKER
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 12-06-08
    • 36581

    #2
    Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
    Just when you think the Big 2 (OU and Texas) are their most vulnerable for upset, most of the rest of the division gets hit hard in certain areas by graduation. Here is an early breakdown. Bob Stoops had a year at OKLAHOMA that he would rather forget. Losing QB Badford right off the bat led to 3 of their 5 losses. The silver lining in all of this is that this years starting QB, Landry Jones, got a lot of experience last season. RB Murray is a key return, along with 5 other starters on offense. The defense loses 6 starters. The schedule is challenging from a non-con point of view, but very doable from a conference point of view. WAGERING NOTES: Last years tie ATS vs Texas is the best that OU has done in their previous 5 meetings (0-4-1 ATS). Despite last years 1-2 regular season Non-con ATS, OU is still 11-4 ATS in their past 4 years. TEXAS finds themselves in the same boat as OU, losing their starting QB. Unfortunately, new QB Gilbert does not have nearly the experience as OU QB Jones has. His favorite target, WR Shipley also graduates, along with their Center and Left side of the line. On defense, the Horns lose two off the DL and 2 LB's along with the early departure of FS Thomas. Texas has an easier non-con schedule than OU, but must make early trips to Lubbock and Lincoln, with OU sandwiched in between. WAGERING NOTES: Texas is 0-3 ATS vs Nebraska, and 4-0 against Rice. This year, Texas may be a decent proce to win the Big 12 for the first time in years. Mike Sherman and TEXAS A&M shocked many people last year by winning 6 games and going to a bowl. The offense, which scored 31 or more points in 9 games, returns their entire backfield and WR Corps, but loses their TE and 3 linemen. The defesne, which was a total siv, giving up 31 or more points in 9 games, loses 5 starters, and gets hit very hard in the secondary. Their non-con schedule may be soft enough to get A&M back into another bowl game. WAGERING NOTES: Obviously the Over was the play last year, when 10 or A&M's 13 games went over 60 points, but this has become a 3 year trend now. TEXAS TECH welcomes the defensive minded Tommy Tuberville as their new HC. Defense is something that T-Tech has lacked for quite some time, and Tubes will have a big challenge ahead of him this season, losing 6 starters, and a lot of edpth, especially along the DL. The offense will be loaded again, returning 8 starters, including the entire backfield and inly losing 1 WR. T-Tech should score, but can Tubes do something with their defense? A very soft non-con schedule should guarantee them another bowl bid. WAGERING NOTES: Look for some value in the total by playing the under. The total will be inflated very high, and Tubes is a very defensive minded HC. OKLAHOMA STATE was very disappointing last season, and gets deceminated by graduation this year. 8 starters on offense and 9 starters on defense leave, along with a lot of depth. Mike Gundy has a huge rebuilding job staring him in the face, and little experience to start with. Fortunately for Gundy, a very soft non-con schedule to open the season will allow his troops to get some much needed experience before the conference season starts. He is going to need it. WAGERING NOTES: Okie State is 6-15 ATS in their last 3 games of the season in their last 7 years. BAYLOR's season was cut short by an injury to starting QB Girffin last season. The health of his knee will tell the tale this season. Baylor loses 5 starters on offense, and a some depth, and 6 starters on defense, plus all 4 of their two deep safties. Still, HC Briles is one of the most respected in the Big 12. The schedule sees Baylor opening up at TCU, but having 3 very winnable non-con games. The health of QB Griffin will determine if Baylor can finally get back to a bowl game or not. WAGERING NOTES: Baylor is 7-3 as a road dog in the past two years. Next Up: Pac 10.


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    • PAULYPOKER
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 12-06-08
      • 36581

      #3
      An early look at your bank account oh my it's empty you better give up now biocth cause I am without a doubt your worst nightmare and you can take it to the bank
      Comment
      • BigdaddyQH
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 07-13-09
        • 19530

        #4
        Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
        An early look at your bank account oh my it's empty you better give up now biocth cause I am without a doubt your worst nightmare and you can take it to the bank
        Like all nightmares, they come to an end, and so will you. Your days are numbered loser. Sow me one thing that you desagree on. Instead of alienating everyone in here, and begging me to put an You must love getting your tail kicked. Again I challenge you to a wager. But you have no money. You are a dead man walking as far as this site is concerned.
        Comment
        • ilovecollege
          SBR Rookie
          • 01-25-10
          • 2

          #5
          good write up
          sbr
          Comment
          • PAULYPOKER
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 12-06-08
            • 36581

            #6
            Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
            Like all nightmares, they come to an end, and so will you. Your days are numbered loser. Sow me one thing that you desagree on. Instead of alienating everyone in here, and begging me to put an You must love getting your tail kicked. Again I challenge you to a wager. But you have no money. You are a dead man walking as far as this site is concerned.
            Wager Type:Football-6pts Teaser (2 team) ties push
            Wager Status:WinRisk / :$603.00 / To Win Amount$548.18 (USD) Accepted 1/24/2010 2:30 PM - EST
            Amount Paid: 1,151.1799999999998
            Item #1
            Wager Type:SpreadOutcome:WinSport / Period:NFL Football / Game Line:
            New York Jets 1/24/2010 3:00:01 PM - (EST)
            +14½
            * Game Notes:
            (CBS) NFL Playoff - Championship Round Item #2Wager Type:SpreadOutcome:WinSport / Period:NFL Football / Game Line:
            Minnesota Vikings 1/24/2010 6:40:01 PM - (EST)
            +9½

            Comment
            • PAULYPOKER
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 12-06-08
              • 36581

              #7
              Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
              Below is a list of today's top 10 bets and if you are on Dallas you have a better chance of seeing God today than winning your wager because BOOKS don't lose, also if you are on Sandiego point spread looks like snowballs chance in hell of hitting but ML has a chance #1 San Diego Chargers - Point Spread #2 Dallas Cowboys - Point Spread #3 Minnesota Vikings - Point Spread #4 Dallas Cowboys - Money Line #2 and 4 together make total money on Dallas about80% to 20% Vikings #5 New York Jets - Point Spread #6 New York Jets - Money Line #7 Dallas Cowboys - Over #8 Minnesota Vikings - Money Line #9 San Diego Chargers - Money Line #10 Connecticut - Point Spread
              Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
              his is the top 10 bets of the day MLs has a bearing factor today HOLY SHIT BATMAN!!! #1 Arizona Cardinals -Money Line RUH! ROH! RAGGY! #2 Arizona Cardinals - Point Spread #3 New Orleans Saints - Point Spread #4 Indianapolis Colts - Point Spread #5 Baltimore Ravens - Point Spread #6 Arizona Cardinals - Over #7 Sacramento Kings - Point Spread #8 Baltimore Ravens - Money Line #9 Pittsburgh - Point Spread #10 New Orleans Saints - Under Going by what the books want it looks like SAINTS ML&UNDER for sure I am sad to announce because of the FIXED! FACTOR! If you are on these below your chances on winning in order from best to worst are 1.saints ML 2.under 3.AZ line 3.saints line
              Paulys NFL Fix Factor for today
              Last edited by SBRAdmin3; 06-06-14, 11:24 AM.
              Comment
              • PAULYPOKER
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 12-06-08
                • 36581

                #8
                Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                Yes boys I looked this one over from *every* possible angle and came up with the safest way to do this possible for the return investment and here it is: Teaser 7points New York Jets +9½ for Game Dallas Cowboys +3½ for Game -----------------------
                Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                My play Baltimore Ravens +9½ for Game Arizona Cardinals +8½ for Game
                PAULY'S NFL Sunday matchup scenarios

                The value of this teaser should not be overlooked
                Last edited by SBRAdmin3; 06-06-14, 11:24 AM.
                Comment
                • PAULYPOKER
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 12-06-08
                  • 36581

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Flight
                  Packers +8.5 / Jets +8.5 is available at a few shops. I'm trying to decide if there is good value in this play. I like both teams in straight wagers which fits my criteria for placing into a 6-point teaser. Does anyone else think this is a good play? Is there any reason to stay away from teasers during the playoffs?
                  Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                  Why not do this assuming you are using the 6 point point factor take the: JETS+8 1/2 EAGLES+10 risking normal bet: on Saturday if it is a win on Sunday take: RAVENS+9 1/2 PACKERS+8 1/2 risking normal or in my case double or take your strongest pick I'm assuming it's the Packers and tease it with: JETS+8 1/2 RAVENS+9 1/2 risking normal bet Or for Insurance reasons play a 9 1/2 point teaser: Packers+12 RAVENS+13 JETS+12 risking double normal bet Notice I left out the EAGLES ON THOSE LAST 2 OPTIONS: simply for the reason I believe that game could end up in a potential blowout handed out by Dallas but other than that I believe Dawgs is the way to go this week if you are teasing I think all the games will be close hard fought battles with the exception of the above mentioned possibility. Holy shit I think I just talked myself into making a play of this nature but at any rate good luck
                  Packers / Jets Teaser
                  Last edited by SBRAdmin3; 06-06-14, 11:24 AM.
                  Comment
                  • PAULYPOKER
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 12-06-08
                    • 36581

                    #10
                    Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                    Yes sir ree boys I actually feel like I am stealing and it feels good Carolina -1 Vikings-2 1/2 TELL'EM CHARLIE SENT YA PAULY'S bonus LOTTERY PLAY 1/2/2010 11:22 AM Teaser $20.00 TO WIN $800.00 Football - 311 New England Patriots +2 for Game Football - 311 New England Patriots/Houston Texans over 52½ for Game Football - 317 Cincinnati Bengals +4 for Game Football - 328 Oakland Raiders +4½ for Game
                    This teaser is so good it Should be Illegal
                    Last edited by SBRAdmin3; 06-06-14, 11:24 AM.
                    Comment
                    • PAULYPOKER
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 12-06-08
                      • 36581

                      #11
                      My picks today for PaulyPoker

                      Originally posted by Slate
                      So far Dallas -3 Rams +8 Jets -10 TBay +3 Neng +3 1/2 1st half Houston -71/2 game Indy +9 small
                      Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                      Neng +3 1/2 1st half DALLAS -3 TRASH THE REST TO MUCH RISK
                      Last edited by SBRAdmin3; 06-06-14, 11:25 AM.
                      Comment
                      • PAULYPOKER
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 12-06-08
                        • 36581

                        #12
                        Plain to see you are clearly out of your league against me in the NFL so take a seat on the bench where you belong shut your mouth and learn from the Zen Master
                        Comment
                        • lolyoutard
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 10-04-09
                          • 46

                          #13
                          I tend to disagree on Texas Tech. They finish 3rd ahead of A&M.
                          Comment
                          • BigdaddyQH
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 07-13-09
                            • 19530

                            #14
                            Originally posted by lolyoutard
                            I tend to disagree on Texas Tech. They finish 3rd ahead of A&M.
                            They well could finish ahead of A&M. These are just early projections. We have a long ways to go.
                            Comment
                            • LVHerbie
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 09-15-05
                              • 6344

                              #15
                              Thanks for the early writeup... Seems to be alot of question marks in the Big 12 South this year...
                              Comment
                              • aroddyant
                                SBR Rookie
                                • 01-08-10
                                • 28

                                #16
                                thanks for the write up!
                                sbr
                                Comment
                                • blueheron1981
                                  SBR Rookie
                                  • 01-26-10
                                  • 6

                                  #17
                                  very nice! I will have to remember this post there is some great info here.
                                  Comment
                                  • PAULYPOKER
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 12-06-08
                                    • 36581

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
                                    They well could finish ahead of A&M. These are just early projections. We have a long ways to go.
                                    Whats your response to my damn near perfectness in which I put in full view to prove to all you are nothing but an angry old man who consistently loses but thinks there is no such thing as a record as good as mine But there it is sunshine read it and weep just think if you were not such an ass hole you could have befriended me and made a couple million off of my great vast knowledge of the NFL easily you do wager 6 figures right? well do the math 11WINS and (*1LOSS) which is a 92%win rate. Tell me Big Daddy how much $,$$$,$$$
                                    would've you and your group won off of my expertise if you would have followed me instead of hating me? I know it is sad isn't it.

                                    (*1LOSS) you will not find this anywhere in my post's history as a actual play but I have to tell the complete truth this loss was the Ravens@Colts I had the Ravens+6 1/2 which means my public record is 100%! from week 17 till now
                                    Comment
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