MY FIRST POST HERE FELLAS, AS I ONLY POST AT ONE OTHER FORUM ... GOOD LUCK WITH THE REST OF THE BOWL SEASON
BOISE STATE BRONCOS VS TEXAS CHRISTIAN HORNED FROGS
While my early posted plays for new years eve and day were cashing, I was trying to figure out who to take in this matchup...While the rightful #1 Alabama and #2 Texas square off on Thursday Jan 7 in the title bowl game held in pasedena, we get to see a rematch of last season's Poinsettia Bowl in which Boise St. took a 12-0 record against Tcu and blew a fourth-quarter lead to lose 17-16 .... Unlike last season when Boise came in undefeated, both teams this season come in undefeated with Boise St. looking for revenge from last year and Tcu anxious to prove its consideration as the country’s best team in the nation.... With much at stake for both team Its in my opinion that this is the “real” college super bowl as we will see Boise States # 1 scoring offense vs. TCU # 1 overall defense.
First of all, many of this years players all saw each other on both sides of the ball in last seasons bowl game, including both Qb's....the Broncos Left hand throwing Kellen Moore ( 3,324 yards passing and 39 touchdowns/ 3 interceptions / 5 sacks) leads the all of ncaa fb in pass ratring and the Horned frogs Mountain West player of the year Qb Andy Dalton (2,484 yards and 22 touchdowns/ 522 rushing 3 td's/ 5 interceptions this season) .... after rewatching last seasons bowl game and reviewing the statistics it was clear to me that the Broncos defense got tired late from being on the field too long as the 36 minutes to 24 minutes advantage Tcu had tells the tale....Tcu's defense basically shut down Boises offense In that game limiting them to only 250 yards of total offense with not a single positive yard on the ground....
We fast forward to this season and see a much better defense as Tcu defensively ranks #1 in total yards allowed / #4 in passing yards allowed and #3 in rushing yards... Led by their “ted hendricks award winner” pass rusher J.hughes (11.5 sacks) and linebackers T.carder / D. Washington...this defense is for real against the run and/or the pass.... against 5 bowl teams this season the Tcu defense has given up an average of 15.8 points/ 80 yards rushing/ 160 yards passing per a game.... and lets not forget that all those 5 teams won their respected bowl game this year already...... offensively Tcu beat those 5 opponents during the season by an average 18.8 points scoring an average of 34.6 yards per a game
Run defensive for the Boise St. Broncos is going to be key in this game as they cant let Tcu dominate them on the line as what happened last year where they gave up 51 rushes at 5.4 a chunk... Add that Tcu has chunked 200 yards or more in 9 of their past 12 games with 4 different 500 yard rushers and you can see where this is going to be a problem ...Against the 5 bowl teams boise has faced, only the season opener against Oregon showed anything... and maybe it was the excitement of opening day, or the conservative play by oregon that day....But the fact remains during the season Fresno St. ran for 300+/ Idaho 200+/ and nevada ran 240 against this run defense....but did i mention that every one of those teams lost in their bowl game ( idaho and bowling green deserve a loss for their bowl game together)
ROOKIEEES FINAL THOUGHT WITH A FEW INSERTS FROM OTHER SOURCES
TALE OF THE TAPE
PTS FOR ~ BOISE 44.2 / TCU 40.7
PTS AGAINST ~ BOISE 17.7 / TCU 12.4
PASS YDS ~ BOISE 266 / TCU 212.6
RUSH YDS ~ BOISE 294.5 / TCU 256.5
PASS DEF ~ BOISE 172.8 / TCU 152.8
RUSH DEF ~ BOISE 126.8 / TCU 80.5
BETTING TRENDS
TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of TCU's last 5 games
TCU is the more effective team on third downs, with a 43.2% conversion rate. While that barely places them in the top third of the country, Boise State’s 38.5% rate is significantly lower down the standings. In a game that features two strong defenses, this could be a key indicator and it points towards the Horned Frogs.
In terms of penalties, both teams are in the middle of the pack. While Boise State has racked up 72 more penalty yards on the year, it seems that discipline won’t be a major concern for either side leading up to the game.
TCU and Boise State are both converting red zone opportunities into scores at an 85% pace. However, TCU has been much more effective at converting field goal opportunities as their kicker’s conversion rate is 82.4% while Boise State’s is a more modest 73.9%. That could be a vital difference as Boise State’s Kyle Brotzman has missed twice as many tries as TCU’s Ross Evans.
Turnover margin is definitely in Boise State’s favor. The Broncos have only turned the ball over 13 times this season while forcing 32 turnovers out their opponents. That’s a +19 ratio. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have turned it over 20 times and only forced opponents into 24 changes of possession. That’s a much more modest +4 margin, giving the Broncos a huge edge. TCU had better take care of the football against the opportunistic Broncos.
Boise State’s last five bowl games, the Broncos are only 1-4, which should lead to questions about the Broncos’ supposed proven track record that the media has cited this year while ignoring their weak schedule. Meanwhile, TCU is 4-0 in their past four bowl games, including a head to head victory over Boise State in last year’s Poinsettia Bowl. These results would seem to indicate that TCU will be the better prepared team heading into this game.
Another key to this game is going to be Boise run game... in my opinion for Boise to have a chance in this game they will need to have to run and have a balance attack to take advantage of questionable key injuries to the TCU secondary... Boise will have to rush for about a 100 yards as they did in the oklahoma win a couple years back that put them on the map.
The injury list and reports have been so vague you would think this was an nfl game with the patriots or something... Will boises Rt Garret Pendergast play with the ankle issue...will WR Austin Pettis be a factor or let alone play? Or what about S George lloka healthy return, will he be ready to contribute.... so much could lead one way or the other having a big impact on many parts to this game .... therefore im going to make my play based on a few things.
1) all the stats and trends point to a big difference in tcu favor... not to mention that tcu has been woooed by every sports channel and caster since opening day
2) TCU has been complaining a lot about playing a bigger school instead of of a team they just played last year, while Boise is thrilled to be in this game to prove their softie schedule means diddly.
3) There is a big revenge factor coming into this game, into the stadium that put them on the map against oklahoma for Boise and I just feel they will be better prepared mentally.
4)Tcu opponents in bowls have won all their games, while Boise opponents in bowls have basically lost all theirs yet the spread for this game remains steady at -7.5 TCU
5) I love watching left handed qbs that are decent and this kid is better than just that
6) last but not least...... http://www.star-telegram.com/college...y/1863472.html
im a little superstitious and for a team to be in the same room of the bowl trophy let alone touching it before game time has got me thinking that whoever made that happen was using it as a motivator for the team .....
im taking the points in this game as i see this game repeating exactly how Boise came into arizona and surprised the shit out of oklahoma and the rest of the world....I dont think that Boise is as bad as the numbers look like due to the downplay of thier compition.... they played defense early in the year and pushed thier offense during the season , ending the season against new mexico state giving up only 191 yards total.... but in the end i think the better team in Tcu will win this game SU as they are the deserving winner to this game....Politically thinking I would have to think theres some value here on the over as well as i think Boise will exploit that secondary of Tcu and get Tcu a little off-balanced not to mention that over the past 10 fiesta bowl games ~ the winner has averaged 36 points in this bowl game
15**** OVER 54.5 POINTS
8**** BOISE STATE +7.5
BOWL PLAYS 25-16 (+33.3 UNITS)
BOISE STATE BRONCOS VS TEXAS CHRISTIAN HORNED FROGS
While my early posted plays for new years eve and day were cashing, I was trying to figure out who to take in this matchup...While the rightful #1 Alabama and #2 Texas square off on Thursday Jan 7 in the title bowl game held in pasedena, we get to see a rematch of last season's Poinsettia Bowl in which Boise St. took a 12-0 record against Tcu and blew a fourth-quarter lead to lose 17-16 .... Unlike last season when Boise came in undefeated, both teams this season come in undefeated with Boise St. looking for revenge from last year and Tcu anxious to prove its consideration as the country’s best team in the nation.... With much at stake for both team Its in my opinion that this is the “real” college super bowl as we will see Boise States # 1 scoring offense vs. TCU # 1 overall defense.
First of all, many of this years players all saw each other on both sides of the ball in last seasons bowl game, including both Qb's....the Broncos Left hand throwing Kellen Moore ( 3,324 yards passing and 39 touchdowns/ 3 interceptions / 5 sacks) leads the all of ncaa fb in pass ratring and the Horned frogs Mountain West player of the year Qb Andy Dalton (2,484 yards and 22 touchdowns/ 522 rushing 3 td's/ 5 interceptions this season) .... after rewatching last seasons bowl game and reviewing the statistics it was clear to me that the Broncos defense got tired late from being on the field too long as the 36 minutes to 24 minutes advantage Tcu had tells the tale....Tcu's defense basically shut down Boises offense In that game limiting them to only 250 yards of total offense with not a single positive yard on the ground....
We fast forward to this season and see a much better defense as Tcu defensively ranks #1 in total yards allowed / #4 in passing yards allowed and #3 in rushing yards... Led by their “ted hendricks award winner” pass rusher J.hughes (11.5 sacks) and linebackers T.carder / D. Washington...this defense is for real against the run and/or the pass.... against 5 bowl teams this season the Tcu defense has given up an average of 15.8 points/ 80 yards rushing/ 160 yards passing per a game.... and lets not forget that all those 5 teams won their respected bowl game this year already...... offensively Tcu beat those 5 opponents during the season by an average 18.8 points scoring an average of 34.6 yards per a game
Run defensive for the Boise St. Broncos is going to be key in this game as they cant let Tcu dominate them on the line as what happened last year where they gave up 51 rushes at 5.4 a chunk... Add that Tcu has chunked 200 yards or more in 9 of their past 12 games with 4 different 500 yard rushers and you can see where this is going to be a problem ...Against the 5 bowl teams boise has faced, only the season opener against Oregon showed anything... and maybe it was the excitement of opening day, or the conservative play by oregon that day....But the fact remains during the season Fresno St. ran for 300+/ Idaho 200+/ and nevada ran 240 against this run defense....but did i mention that every one of those teams lost in their bowl game ( idaho and bowling green deserve a loss for their bowl game together)
ROOKIEEES FINAL THOUGHT WITH A FEW INSERTS FROM OTHER SOURCES
TALE OF THE TAPE
PTS FOR ~ BOISE 44.2 / TCU 40.7
PTS AGAINST ~ BOISE 17.7 / TCU 12.4
PASS YDS ~ BOISE 266 / TCU 212.6
RUSH YDS ~ BOISE 294.5 / TCU 256.5
PASS DEF ~ BOISE 172.8 / TCU 152.8
RUSH DEF ~ BOISE 126.8 / TCU 80.5
BETTING TRENDS
TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of TCU's last 5 games
TCU is the more effective team on third downs, with a 43.2% conversion rate. While that barely places them in the top third of the country, Boise State’s 38.5% rate is significantly lower down the standings. In a game that features two strong defenses, this could be a key indicator and it points towards the Horned Frogs.
In terms of penalties, both teams are in the middle of the pack. While Boise State has racked up 72 more penalty yards on the year, it seems that discipline won’t be a major concern for either side leading up to the game.
TCU and Boise State are both converting red zone opportunities into scores at an 85% pace. However, TCU has been much more effective at converting field goal opportunities as their kicker’s conversion rate is 82.4% while Boise State’s is a more modest 73.9%. That could be a vital difference as Boise State’s Kyle Brotzman has missed twice as many tries as TCU’s Ross Evans.
Turnover margin is definitely in Boise State’s favor. The Broncos have only turned the ball over 13 times this season while forcing 32 turnovers out their opponents. That’s a +19 ratio. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have turned it over 20 times and only forced opponents into 24 changes of possession. That’s a much more modest +4 margin, giving the Broncos a huge edge. TCU had better take care of the football against the opportunistic Broncos.
Boise State’s last five bowl games, the Broncos are only 1-4, which should lead to questions about the Broncos’ supposed proven track record that the media has cited this year while ignoring their weak schedule. Meanwhile, TCU is 4-0 in their past four bowl games, including a head to head victory over Boise State in last year’s Poinsettia Bowl. These results would seem to indicate that TCU will be the better prepared team heading into this game.
Another key to this game is going to be Boise run game... in my opinion for Boise to have a chance in this game they will need to have to run and have a balance attack to take advantage of questionable key injuries to the TCU secondary... Boise will have to rush for about a 100 yards as they did in the oklahoma win a couple years back that put them on the map.
The injury list and reports have been so vague you would think this was an nfl game with the patriots or something... Will boises Rt Garret Pendergast play with the ankle issue...will WR Austin Pettis be a factor or let alone play? Or what about S George lloka healthy return, will he be ready to contribute.... so much could lead one way or the other having a big impact on many parts to this game .... therefore im going to make my play based on a few things.
1) all the stats and trends point to a big difference in tcu favor... not to mention that tcu has been woooed by every sports channel and caster since opening day
2) TCU has been complaining a lot about playing a bigger school instead of of a team they just played last year, while Boise is thrilled to be in this game to prove their softie schedule means diddly.
3) There is a big revenge factor coming into this game, into the stadium that put them on the map against oklahoma for Boise and I just feel they will be better prepared mentally.
4)Tcu opponents in bowls have won all their games, while Boise opponents in bowls have basically lost all theirs yet the spread for this game remains steady at -7.5 TCU
5) I love watching left handed qbs that are decent and this kid is better than just that
6) last but not least...... http://www.star-telegram.com/college...y/1863472.html
im a little superstitious and for a team to be in the same room of the bowl trophy let alone touching it before game time has got me thinking that whoever made that happen was using it as a motivator for the team .....
im taking the points in this game as i see this game repeating exactly how Boise came into arizona and surprised the shit out of oklahoma and the rest of the world....I dont think that Boise is as bad as the numbers look like due to the downplay of thier compition.... they played defense early in the year and pushed thier offense during the season , ending the season against new mexico state giving up only 191 yards total.... but in the end i think the better team in Tcu will win this game SU as they are the deserving winner to this game....Politically thinking I would have to think theres some value here on the over as well as i think Boise will exploit that secondary of Tcu and get Tcu a little off-balanced not to mention that over the past 10 fiesta bowl games ~ the winner has averaged 36 points in this bowl game
15**** OVER 54.5 POINTS
8**** BOISE STATE +7.5
BOWL PLAYS 25-16 (+33.3 UNITS)
