Sunday, 1/3 -- Boise State / TCU

[Sherman60]

Who you guys got on this game? Both teams are very good (obviously) and TCU has a great defense.

Both offenses are very high-powered, with Boise relying heavily on the rush, though their QB has 39 TDs for the season with only 3 picks. However, TCU has incredible run-stopping ability, though Boise State always seems to put up a lot of points no matter who they are playing. I feel if BSU is going to win it is going to be through special teams and in the air.

This is a rematch of last year's Poinsettia bowl, where Boise dominated the first half, but ended up losing by 1 point, 17-16, so you know BSU will be out for revenge.

I think my picks are either going to be TCU (ML), though BSU +8 is very, very tempting. I am always leaning towards OVER 55 on this game as well.

Discuss guys, lets get this right and make some

[Sherman60]

Still leaning towards BSU +7.5 and OVER 55.

Any one else with me?

[sooner13]

Again...too many people are relying on the fact that Boise scores points! Defense is and always will be what wins the game! Ask Arizona, Miami, LSU, Oregon, Tennesee and South Carolina! Take the team with the better defense and rest easy knowing that last years bowl game means nothing, and the fact that Boises defensive ppg allowed is a joke. Who did they shut down? New Mexico St, San Jose St, Hawaii, Miami Ohio and first game of the year was Oregon. Bottom line if you remove the push over games and average the totals from the still mediocre teams they play...they allowed 25 pts. a game. Taking into consideration TCU is the 4th best offense in the Nation, I'll take my chances with TCU. Goodluck tho.

[Sherman60]

Again...too many people are relying on the fact that Boise scores points! Defense is and always will be what wins the game! Ask Arizona, Miami, LSU, Oregon, Tennesee and South Carolina! Take the team with the better defense and rest easy knowing that last years bowl game means nothing, and the fact that Boises defensive ppg allowed is a joke. Who did they shut down? New Mexico St, San Jose St, Hawaii, Miami Ohio and first game of the year was Oregon. Bottom line if you remove the push over games and average the totals from the still mediocre teams they play...they allowed 25 pts. a game. Taking into consideration TCU is the 4th best offense in the Nation, I'll take my chances with TCU. Goodluck tho.

You do bring about a good point at BSU +7.5, but I still think that this game could go 3 ways, with the first two being more likely...


1)Either BSU or TCU will score upwards of 35 or 40 points, thus blowing the other team out early, and backdoor covering the over. BSU has scored at least 34 points in 7 of their last 9 bowl games, averaging right around 40, and also putting up 43 on a Sooners' defense that was strong two years ago. The coaching staff has no changed, and always knows how to put up points.

2) It will be a straight up shootout. BSU knows how to score, TCU knows how to score. TCU has the advantage in defense but BSU's D and TCU's offense seems to have a similar relationship. If this happens, watch for the score to be between 70 and 80

3) It is a similar game to last year, where both offense stall because of great defensive game planning. However, I have been leaning towards this not happening.


Feel free to critique my analysis, as we are here to win money, not fight


And with your post I am also now more inclined to stay away from BSU +7.5... hmm

[sooner13]

Just trying to help. But I posted this another place too but take into consideration that AF, Wyoming and BYU all scored 35+ in their bowl games but only scored 34 combined against TCU. How will Boise score enough to cover? Goodluck either way Sherman.